The Probability Swing

20시간 전

🎯 The Probability Swing: Institutional Logic & Macro Bias

The Probability Swing is not just a signal indicator; it is a complete trading ecosystem. It combines Macro-Economic Fundamentals, Institutional Volume Analysis, and Market Structure to calculate a real-time "Win Probability" for every trade setup.

Stop guessing. Let the script calculate the math, the money management, and the macro bias for you.



🌍 1. The Fundamental Macro Dashboard

Most indicators ignore the real world. This script connects to external economic data (DXY, US10Y, VIX, SPX) to give you a directional Fundamental Bias.

How the Bias Works (What changes it?):

The dashboard in the bottom-left adapts automatically based on what asset you are trading:

Forex (USD Pairs): Watches the DXY (Dollar Index).

Bias Shift: If DXY breaks above its 200 SMA, the Bias turns BEARISH for pairs like EURUSD. If DXY weakens, Bias turns BULLISH.

Gold (XAUUSD): Watches Real Yields (US10Y) and Dollar Strength.

Bias Shift: Gold hates high yields. If US10Y and DXY are rising, the Bias will turn Red (Bear). If Yields crash, the Bias turns Green (Bull).

Indices/Crypto (Risk Assets): Watches VIX (Volatility) and SPX.

Bias Shift: If VIX spikes (Fear), the Bias turns Risk Off (Bear). If SPX is trending up (Greed), the Bias turns Risk On (Bull).

Note: The "Fund Bias" on the dashboard tells you strictly which direction the economy suggests you should trade.



📊 2. Institutional Volume & Traps

The script analyzes volume relative to the average to detect "Smart Money" activity vs. "Retail" activity.

💎 BLUE TRAP (Shakeout): This appears at lows. It indicates that price was pushed down to hit retail stop-losses, but volume suggests institutions are absorbing the selling. Potential Bullish Entry.

⚠️ RED TRAP (Fake Pump): This appears at highs. It indicates a breakout with weak volume or a "stop hunt" into resistance. Potential Bearish Entry.

🟡 INSTITUTIONAL VOL: Yellow bars/text indicate volume is significantly higher than average (2x+), suggesting a major move is imminent.



🚀 3. The "A+ Sniper" Signal

The script calculates a probability score (0-99%) based on 7 factors (Trend, Htf Trend, VWAP, Volatility, Divergence, Structure, and Fundamentals).

A+ SNIPER BUY: Requires >75% Probability + Institutional Volume + Fundamental Alignment.

A+ SNIPER SELL: Requires >75% Probability + Institutional Volume + Fundamental Alignment.



💰 4. Built-in Money Management (Auto-Risk)

Stop calculating lot sizes manually. The dashboard displays the exact Lot Size you should use for the current setup.

Go to Settings > Money Management.

Enter your Account Balance and Risk % (e.g., 1%).

The Dashboard (bottom left) will calculate the Lot Size automatically based on the current volatility (ATR) of the asset.



🛠️ How to Trade This System

Check the Dashboard: Look at "Fund Bias." Is it Green (Bull) or Red (Bear)? Try to trade in the direction of the macro bias.

Wait for Structure: Wait for price to enter a Green Zone (Support) or Red Zone (Resistance).

Spot the Trap: Look for a Blue Trap (at support) or Red Trap (at resistance).

Execute on Signal: If you see an A+ SNIPER label, enter the trade.

Place Stops: The script automatically plots a Dotted Line for your Stop Loss based on ATR. If a "Trap" is detected, the Stop Loss tightens to the trap candle (Solid Line).



⚙️ Settings Overview

Money Management: Set your account size here for the Lot Calculator.

Fundamental: Toggle Macro Bias on/off.

Institutional Tools: Turn on/off Fair Value Gaps (FVG) and Session VWAP.

Session Filter: "Only Allow Snipers in High Liquidity Sessions" ensures you don't get signals during low-volume hours (Asian session/Lunch).



Disclaimer: Trading involves significant risk. This tool uses historical data and probabilities to assist in decision-making but does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management.

8시간 전

릴리즈 노트

Update: Leverage adjustment added in settings.

2시간 전

릴리즈 노트

Update to trap logic