Simplified STH-MVRV + Z-Score

Simplified Short Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) + Z-Score Indicator

Description:
This indicator visualizes the Short Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value ratio (STH-MVRV) and its normalized Z-Score, providing insight into Bitcoin’s market cycle phases and potential overbought or oversold conditions.

How it works:

The STH-MVRV ratio compares the market value of coins held by short-term holders to their realized value, helping to identify periods of profit-taking or accumulation by these holders.

The indicator calculates three versions:

STH-MVRV (MVRV): Ratio of current MVRV to its 155-day SMA.

STH-MVRV (Price): Ratio of BTC price to its 155-day SMA.

STH-MVRV (AVG): Average of the above two ratios.

You can select which ratio to display via the input dropdown.

Threshold Lines:

Adjustable upper and lower threshold lines mark significant levels where market sentiment might shift.

The indicator also plots a baseline at 1.0 as a reference.

Z-Score Explanation:

The Z-Score is a normalized value scaled between -3 and +3, calculated relative to the chosen threshold levels.

When the ratio hits the upper threshold, the Z-Score approaches +2, indicating potential overbought conditions.

Conversely, reaching the lower threshold corresponds to a Z-Score near -2, signaling potential oversold conditions.

This Z-Score is shown in a clear table in the top right corner of the chart for easy monitoring.

Data Sources:

MVRV data is fetched from the BTC_MVRV dataset.

Price data is sourced from the BTC/USD index.

Usage:

Use this indicator to assess short-term holder market behavior and to help identify buying or selling opportunities based on extremes indicated by the Z-Score.

Combining this tool with other analysis can improve timing decisions in Bitcoin trading.