MTPI SOL | JeffreyTimmermans

Medium-Term Trend Probability Indicator

The "Medium-Term Trend Probability Indicator" on SOL (Solana) is a custom-built tool designed to analyze Solana (SOL) from a medium-term perspective. Unlike short-term indicators that react quickly to intraday volatility or long-term models that focus on macro cycles, the MTPI is optimized to detect medium-term market trends—capturing key turning points and momentum shifts that unfold over multiple weeks.

This version of the MTPI is applied to SOL, making it a Solana-specific trend-following tool with particular sensitivity to its price behavior and structural dynamics.

Key Features

Medium-Term Focus:

• Built to monitor price action over several weeks to months, the MTPI filters out short-term noise while remaining responsive to meaningful trend changes.
  

8 Input Signals:

• The MTPI aggregates 8 carefully selected trend-following inputs, each tuned to reflect mid-cycle behavior in SOL’s price movements.
  

Market Regimes:

The MTPI classifies market behavior into one of three clear regimes:

• Bullish → Momentum and structure align to support a continued uptrend
  
• Bearish → Majority of signals point to trend deterioration or downside momentum
  
• Neutral → Mixed signals, often during consolidation or early transition phases
  

Visual Background:

• The background color shifts dynamically to reflect the active regime—making it easy to visually interpret the prevailing market condition.
  

Comprehensive Dashboard:

The lower panel displays:

• The state of each individual input (Bullish, Bearish, Neutral)
  
• The numerical MTPI Score (average of all 8 signals)
  
• The final Trend Classification (Bullish / Bearish / Neutral)
  

How It Works

Input Analysis:

Each of the 8 inputs outputs a score based on its internal signal:

• +1 = Bullish condition
  
• -1 = Bearish condition
  
• 0 = Neutral / indecisive
  

Score Calculation:

The MTPI Score is calculated as the average of all 8 input signals:

• Score > +0.1 = Bullish regime
  
• Score < -0.1 = Bearish regime
  
• Score between -0.1 and +0.1 = Neutral regime
  

Background Coloring:

• Color-coded backgrounds instantly reflect the current trend classification based on the MTPI Score, helping traders stay aligned with the market direction at all times.
  

Use Cases

Mid-Term Positioning:

• Identify strong trend phases on SOL with reduced noise and increased directional clarity.
  

Confirmation Layer:

• Use MTPI as a mid-term confirmation tool alongside short-term setups or long-term macro models (like LTPI).
  

Rotation or Transition Detection:

• Spot key moments when SOL transitions from expansion to contraction phases (and vice versa).
  

Dynamic Alerts:

• Bullish Signal: MTPI Score crosses above +0.1
  
• Bearish Signal: MTPI Score crosses below -0.1
  
• Neutral Zone: MTPI Score enters between -0.1 and +0.1
  

Conclusion

The Medium-Term Trend Probability Indicator (MTPI – SOL) provides a powerful framework for identifying trend phases on Solana with mid-term relevance. By combining 8 intelligent inputs into a single score and market classification, it offers clarity in times of uncertainty and confidence in times of momentum. Whether used alone or as part of a broader multi-timeframe strategy, the MTPI helps refine entries, exits, and macro alignment in the dynamic world of Solana trading.