Hurst Exponent Trend filter

2023년 3월 7일

Hello Traders !!

Hurst Exponent Trend filter utalises the Hurst Exponent and VAWMA (one of my other unique indicators - check my script publishings to use) to categorise the market and decide whether its Trending, H > 0.5, In random Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) H = 0.5 or Mean reverting (Contrarian), H < 0.5, When Trending a Trend following indicator -The VAWMA- is color highlighted, By doing so, theoreticaly price noise is eleimnated leaving statsitcaly true zones of price action Trend.

What is The Hurst Exponent ?

Developed by The Hydrologist Edwin Harlod Hurst, The Hurst Exponent measures auto correlation in time series sets, Its first applicartions were in the natural world, e.g. in measureing the volume of water in a river.

Although since then it has had applications in Finance, this may be largly due to autocorrelation functions being usefull tools in univaritae time series anaylyis.

The Hurst Exponent (H) aims to segment the market into three differnet states, Trending (H > 0.5), Random Geometric Brownian Motion (H = 0.5) and Mean Reverting / Contrarian (H < 0.5). In my interpritation this can be used as a trend filter that iliminates market noise, which may be achived by only focusing on trending zones.

How to Interprit the Indicator :


Focusing on the Above image, When H > 0.5 A trend is presnet, to decide the directional bias, both VAWMA`s position is checked, given the fast VAWMA > slow VAWMA and the current close > the fast VAWMA a bulish bias is present, signafied by a vibrant green fill between the fast VAWMA and price action. note the exact opposite logic for a bearish bias and H > 0.5 (signafied by a vibrant red fill). .

I will continue to update this Trading Indicator.
PS : Thats given I can hopfully remmember
Happy Trading !!

2024년 11월 30일

릴리즈 노트

1. Updated Hurst Exponent Calculation
   
2. Use of SMA