[New series!] [Consistent Losing Strategies] 34 EMA Scalping

2019년 1월 9일

//---------------------------INTRO------------------------------
Hi All!

Let me introduce myself as a semi-successful forex trader & lover of automation.
I've taken to algo trading and have been hunting down strategies (that usually use indicators) to automate, backtest, and hopefully implement in MT4.
Unfortunately, most strategies are complete bulls*** and the select cases that are shown to "prove" success are limited.
These strategy sources often do not provide useful analytics either.

I want to change that approach to trading! We can really benefit each other and the community by being methodical about backtesting
as well as evaluating our results with some kind of scoring heuristic.

As for what that standardized process looks like..well I'm still working on it.
I'm pretty much on Tv for multiple hours of the day, screening strategies via Pinescript and I'd like to start sharing my progress!

This is a new series I'd like to start on consistently losing strategies. I'll make all the code public, so if you think I've made a blunder
or approached a problem the wrong way, then drop me a DM or paste your fix into the comments.

//---------------------------STRAT------------------------------
34 EMA Scalping strategy (ref. forextradingstrategies4u)

How you're supposed to trade it:

BUY:
1. Market is in an down trend as shown by the 34 EMA
2. Price breaks above a downwards trend line
3. Price breaks above the 34 EMA
4. Look for a very bullish candlestick or chart pattern

SELL:
1. Look for the 34 EMA to show we are in an uptrend
2. Price breaks below an upwards sloping trend line
3. Price breaks below 34 EMA
4. Look for a bearish candlestick or a chart pattern

//---------------------------CONC------------------------------
Q: Why does it fail?
A: I believe this strategy relies too much on subjective input (aka, trendlines).

Q: Why does it fail as an algo?
A: The 34 EMA is no more predictive than any other EMA, although it does a good job at filtering out noise.

Q: Should I try it out?
A: No, it's trash. This is the proof that it is trash.