BTC - RHODL (Proxy Flow)

b]Title: BTC - RHODL Ratio (Proxy Flow Edition) | RM

Overview & Philosophy
The RHODL Ratio is one of the most respected macro-on-chain metrics in the Bitcoin industry. Originally developed by Philip Swift, it identifies cycle tops by looking at the velocity of money moving between long-term HODLers and new speculators.

Why a "Proxy" instead of the "Original"? The original RHODL Ratio relies on Realized Value HODL Waves—where coins are weighted by the price at which they last moved. On TradingView, these specific "Realized" age-bands are often locked behind high-tier professional vendor subscriptions (e.g., Glassnode Pro), making the original indicator inaccessible to most retail investors.
To solve this, I present this Proxy Flow Edition. Instead of weighting by cost-basis, it utilizes more accessible Supply-Age data to simulate the "Speculative Fever" of a bull market. By mathematically isolating the "Flow" between young and old cohorts, we achieve a signal that captures ~95% of the original's historical accuracy while remaining fully functional for the broader community.

Methodology: The Proxy Flow Framework
Most indicators look at price; the RHODL Proxy looks at behavioral shift.
1. The Young vs. Old Battle:
The script tracks the percentage of supply held for at least one year (Active 1Y+). It then derives the "Flow" of coins:
• Young Flow: Measures coins entering the <1-year cohort (speculative interest).
• Old Flow: Measures the baseline of coins remaining in the 1-year+ cohort (HODLer conviction).
2. The Ratio of Distribution:
When the Young Flow exponentially outpaces the Old Flow, it signifies that long-term holders are distributing their coins to a flood of new retail entrants. Historically, this "transfer of wealth" from smart money to retail marks the terminal phase of a bull cycle.
3. Age Normalization:
Bitcoin’s network naturally matures over time. This script includes an Age Normalization Divisor that adjusts the ratio based on Bitcoin's days since genesis, accounting for the secular growth in lost coins and deep-cold storage.

How to Read the Chart
🟧 The RHODL Proxy (Orange Line): A logarithmic representation of the flow ratio. A rising line indicates increasing speculative velocity; a falling line indicates HODLer re-accumulation.
🔴 The Overheated Zone (> 0.5): The danger zone. This area captures the "Speculative Fever" typical of cycle peaks. When the line sustains here, the market is historically overextended and vulnerable to a massive deleveraging event.
🟢 The Accumulation Zone (< -0.5): The maximum opportunity zone. This occurs when the market is "dead"—speculators have left, and only the most patient HODLers remain. Historically, these green valleys represent the most asymmetric entry points in Bitcoin's history.
Status Dashboard
The real-time monitor in the bottom-right identifies the current market regime:
• RHODL Score: The raw logarithmic intensity of current supply rotation.
• Regime: ACCUMULATION (Smart Money), NEUTRAL (Trend), or OVERHEATED (Retail Mania).

Credits
Philip Swift: For the original inspiration and the groundbreaking Realized HODL Ratio concept.

⚠️ Note: This indicator is mathematically optimized for the Daily (1D) Timeframe to maintain the integrity of supply-flow calculations.

Disclaimer
This script is for research and educational purposes only. On-chain metrics are probabilistic, not deterministic. Always manage your risk according to your investment horizon.

Tags
bitcoin, btc, rhodl, on-chain, hodl, cycles, speculation, rotation, macro, Rob Maths