China's Instagram Just Dropped a $3B Bombshell--and It's Still Private

Xiaohongshu, China's lifestyle-content darling, is starting to look less like a TikTok cloneand more like a profit machine. The Shanghai-based company, known internationally as RedNote, has privately told investors it expects to triple profit this year to $3 billion, according to people briefed on the matter. That puts it well ahead of Snap SNAP and roughly 50% above Pinterest's projected 2024 earnings. It's a remarkable leap for a platform once dismissed as a niche shopping app. With 300 million monthly active users and a recent private valuation of $31 billion, Xiaohongshu is now moving deeper into the monetization lane, pushing further into livestreaming, short-form content, and e-commerce tie-ups with Alibaba and JD.com.

Investors have long been skeptical about whether Xiaohongshu could scale its community-driven appeal into a real business. But that narrative is shifting. After doubling profit to over $1 billion in 2024, the company now seems to be hitting a commercialization stride. Influencer-led video shopping, once experimental, has become a core engine. At the same time, the app has gained traction overseas, especially in the US, where concerns over a TikTok ban have nudged creators toward alternatives. It's this combinationsticky user engagement, a maturing ad stack, and growing e-commerce railsthat's fueling investor optimism, even without a formal IPO timeline.

Xiaohongshu isn't required to disclose its financials, nor are they audited, but like many late-stage startups, it has shared projections with key backers, including Alibaba and HSG (formerly Sequoia China). Market watchers say the company remains one of the few Chinese internet champions still private, which could make it a sought-after name if listing windows reopen. For now, the $3B profit target is doing what no pitch deck can: giving investors a concrete glimpse of scale, margin, and upsideall in one sleek, video-driven app.