Deutsche Bank on S&P 500: "October in a presidential election year might be a struggle"

This chart from Deutsche Bank is getting some love out there, showing that US benchmark index “is still experiencing its strongest YTD performance of the 21st century so far, having risen by +19.4% since the start of the year.”

Of more interest though is what DB analysts see for the next few months:

• Lookingforward, seasonal patterns show that declines are relatively rare at this time of year.
• Since 2000, 19 of the 24 completed years have seen the index rally in Q4, higher than any other quarter.
• But we are in a very tight election campaign and if history repeats itself, then Octoberin a presidential election year might be a struggle before brighter times ahead in November and December.
• Outside of the influence of macro, politics and geopolitics, US earnings season will be a key focus from this week.