Dow Jones Mini Futures

2018년 7월 13일

Is it at all possible that the DJI may have topped?

I haven't done an in-depth EW analysis, and lets face it, I am no expert. But:

1. A trade war (between the USA and China, Canada, the EU, and Mexico etc) seems more likely than unlikely (whatever your beliefs may be about the benefits vs costs long-term for
American Businesses and populace, I find it hard to make a case for anything apart from increased costs and uncertainty in the short to medium term),

2. There seem on the face of things to have been at least five sub-divisions of the 2009 to present trend, which (three waves with and two smaller waves against the trend) would suggest the DJI is now in a corrective phase.

On purely technical grounds I would consider a short trade, targeting the lower TL with a mild possibility that the short may have been entered slghtly too early.
This short is based on:
1. EW count,
2. trend-line resistance
3. Bearish RSI divergence

I'm not a professional and this analysis is undertaken entirely for my own education and to keep in touch with the markets.

2018년 7월 19일

노트

Ok, yes slightly early. I would instead short at the upper trend-line on signs of weakness.