XRP: Breakout in 4-Hour Impending

2020년 4월 14일

The ATR is telling us that there should be a relatively volatile movement in price within the next two days (for the minor trend) and this can go in either direction. The volume is pointing towards a breakout as well. The breakout is most likely to continue upwards, given the main direction of the greater trend and the MACD's curtailed rapid fall, as the fast line moves above the slow line making a bullish indication.

All in all, this is a positive indication for those who would like to trade on the minor trends. I would buy some now and sell around the .23, .25, and .3 levels. But as that is not my style, I will continue looking by the sidelines and wait for another possible outcome that has a high likelihood of playing out in the daily.
As the BTC halving hypes up the space again, I suspect many to have bought only to sell days before the announced halving, providing one last bounce downwards before changing direction in the primary trend. It is no question that BTC is highly correlated with XRP, so this should play out as well.

For those of you who would like to play safe, I'd suggest to buy right now since the price at .18 is not bad at all, especially when considering that it should be worth $10-100, if not more. As it is certainly impossible to know, as it is right now, where the price will reach its peak or fall towards in every single trend up or down, this is the wisest decision, second to laddering in and out of a position. The only reason why I don't suggest the ladder method is because of my understanding of the minor trends, probabilities between ranges, fundamental reasons that affect price (halving), patterns, etc. Laddering is supposed to help those who do not want to suffer the pain of learning TA, so it is a trade-off; you can also utilize the method strategically with a mix of TA, but that's another topic for another day.

Regardless, I suspect that the price of XRP should rise until around the BTC halving date (where people playing the minor trends tend to "sell the news" before repurchasing at a lower price), and then fall towards the .25, .18, .15 levels. As many of you were probably advised "don't catch a falling knife", I suspect that the price would fall closer towards the .15 levels rather than bounce above the .25 levels, moving with the greater primary trend. Though it is uncertain (and I've already mitigated the risk of missing out by purchasing some earlier), before I continue adding to my position, I will let the knife fall on the floor, where I believe a floor will be established at the .15 level, until I see a beautiful third bounce. After that, I will check the daily RSI, MACD, OBV, etc. before deciding whether or not to go all in.