XRP Trends vs BTC Trends

2017년 5월 11일

1HR TOP LEFT

4HR TOP RIGHT
Reveals Fractal pattern in XRP. Huge Spike, followed by a consolidation pattern. Will possibly see a new spike soon, followed by consolidation.
LONG TERM IDEA: Look to buy in during Consolidation periods, like we seem to be in now. Sell when reaching ATH in spiking pattern.

1 DAY BOTTOM
Presents an overlap of BTC trends vs XRP trends. A common belief is that as BTC increases, alt-coins decrease. It appears to me that XRP will follow its own trends, and that a huge sell off in BTC, may not necessarily increase XRP's ratio value to BTC. If BTC does retrace after breaching 2K barrier, and there is a huge sell off like many expect, than it may be wise to see how XRP consolidates and behaves in its own trend before dumping BTC into it. However, if enough whales and investors dump into XRP, we may see a rapid push to the next fractal level followed by spikes in buys and sell offs and a consolidation period.

2017년 5월 11일

노트

1HR TF TOP LEFT

4HR TF TOP RIGHT
Reveals Fractal pattern in XRP. Huge Spike, followed by a consolidation pattern. After this, we could see a new spike at higher levels, followed by consolidation. This Fractal Pattern also seems to follow speculative patterns as well, very similar to the Gartner Hype Cycle:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle#/media/File:Gartner_Hype_Cycle.svg

PLAYING LONG TERM IDEA: Look to buy in during consolidation periods(plateau of productivity), like we seem to be in now.Then look to sell on "Peak of Inflated Expectations" when we reach ATH.

BOTTOM TF 1 DAY
Presents an overlap of BTC trends vs XRP trends. A common belief is that as BTC increases, alt-coins decrease. It appears to me that XRP will follow its own trends, and that a huge sell off in BTC, may not necessarily increase XRP's ratio value to BTC. If BTC does retrace after breaching 2K barrier, and there is a huge sell off like many expect, than it may be wise to see how XRP consolidates and behaves in its own trend before dumping BTC into it. However, if enough whales and investors dump into XRP, we may see a rapid push to the next fractal level followed by spikes in buys and sell offs and a consolidation period.

My Philosophy- TRADING LONG TERM over Periods rather than Days:
Trading often introduces opportunities for inefficiencies, meaning you have to be right more times than you're wrong, and your gains have to offset not just your losses, but also capture more gains than just by holding. This means you have to be able to read the volatility of the charts well in relation to all the other cryptos, which require time and skill but also luck, given the speculative nature of cryptocurrency in general.

Therefore, this is my general approach. Pick a cryptocurrency that has high expectations for long term value, that goes beyond just speculation, but can actually be a useful case for blockchain technology. Hold a portion of that long term, and use the rest to capture volatility in the market for extra gains.

With XRP, my general approach would be to buy in during the consolidation periods, looking at the 1 DAY TF. Ideally hold 50-75% for the Long Term (i.e.until XRP reaches critical mass, adoption by banks and public, possibly 1-3 years).

Using the remaining portion, you can then attempt to capture extra gains whenever the market moves up and down. In this case, I would still stay with the 1 DAY TF. Following the BOTTOM CHART, I should have sold XRP in April during the "Height of Irrational Exuberance". Then once my XRP is converted to BTC, it would continue to rise in value until BTC reaches it's own "Height of Irrational Exuberance." Expectations are this will be around 2K, as it would be a significant psychological barrier. I would then attempt to rebuy XRP with BTC, as XRP would seem to be consolidating. Then repeat your buys and sells for the next cycle, as long as it seems to be repeating its own trends.

This would involve trading looking at months rather than days, but I believe this would offer much less risk and result in great gains if played well.