롱

XRP update: The pump WILL come. With or without SEC FUD.

업데이트됨

It's time to look again at good old XRP, the historically most brutal coin to hold, and it again does confirm its reputation.

The price action of XRP has been really subpar compared to some other coins, that have already seen strong rises, in accordance to the rise of BTC to new all-time highs.

This is of course largely due to the SEC vs Ripple case, and the subsequent delisting of XRP from american exchanges.

However, I am convinced that XRP will see epic pumps, no matter what happens in the future with the SEC lawsuit.
First of all, I am following the case and it looks as if either Ripple wins or settlement happens with a probability of close to 100%. The SEC are total clowns that have an extremely weak case,
and actually they are now even under scrutiny for suspicion of corruption as a direct result.

But chart-wise, what XRP is doing, is nothing new. This coin always was insanely stable in BTC runups, and then after everyone had given up, see insane short bursts of extreme rise in the matter
of mere weeks. This is the modus operandi of that coin, and we all knew it would be hard to have XRP.
Also, historically it was always one of the very last coins to pump in a bullmarket. Actually one could even say: When XRP has pumped, the bullmarket is over. Being the last coin to pump, this statement
could be verified again pretty soon.

I mistakenly thought that we would get a 2017 repeat. However, BTC is NOT doing a 2017 repeat, this rally is really different from 2017. It looks more like a weird version of 2013. So, why shouldn't the correct
XRP behavior also lie as far back as 2013, which is relevant to our analysis?

In 2013, we can actually see some fascinating stuff that happened. XRP made an insanely similar structure to what it is doing now !

I marked it with the two ellipses. First fake pump, then dump to a lower XRP/BTC ratio. Then from there pump, retrace, another smaller pump, and by that logic, we should soon see a dump, followed by
an outrageous pump.

Fascinatingly, this would coincide with a very likely BTC dump, before the epic pump towards the end of the year.

I also expect the US dollar DXY to further weaken and further fuel the crypto rally. Everything is aligning nicely and XRP will be again one of the last coins to pump, but I still believe that the reward for all
people that were insane enough to hold this coin through all that brutal time, will be extremely high.

노트

XRPBTC going down as expected. This will continue at first, should BTC now go directly towards new ATHs. Then suddenly, out of nowhere, XRPBTC will explode and pump straight without pause for 4-6 weeks.

Let's see what BTC will do now. We are still not in the clear yet. I will start to get cautiously optimistic once we go over 53k.

노트

A nice triangle is forming in XRPBTC:

노트

We are in a really nice trendchannel here:

I think breakout will happen soon.

노트

We could also see a fake brakeout to the downside in XRPBTC before the pump:

also, I talk about XRP on my new youtube channel:
youtu.be/e71GrTtVbQg

노트

I see many people are panicking now because the lawsuit got extended.
I think we will see a massive pump with or without the lawsuit.

Remember: The only thing necessary for a coin to see massive pumps, is to not have sellers left any more.
And in the case of XRP, there are only hardcore strong hodlers left. All weak hands have sold.

So only buyers remain. Soon this wedge will end and we will see a strong pump:

노트

XRP is about to start a big move to the upside. Countdown has begun, I think about 1-2 more weeks, probably shortly before the Ripple Swell Conference:

노트

The triangle is still at play:

I suppose breakout around the Ripple Swell conference on 9-10th of November.

노트

If XRPBTC breaks through this falling wedge to the upside, we could see a nice rally:

노트

This is my current view:

Nice falling wedge in play, breakout probably in March or April. It would fit nicely with the expected end of the SEC lawsuit.

Target:

Sounds insane, yes, but I really think it will play out that way.
XRP has been brutal, but normally, the more brutal, the higher the reward.

노트

It's been a while since the last update, and XRP has disappointed us all. It appears that indeed, the obvious is happening: XRP will ONLY pump, if the SEC lawsuit is resolved, and by that I mean resolved FAVORABLY to Ripple.

The markets have become spectacularly obvious, meaning that it's really happening what everybody is thinking. Also, extremely worryingly, BTC is now super correlated to the stock market, which in these times is not so nice of course.

So, I see XRP only pumping when lawsuit is over, and then BTC goes into the next cycle. But this will depend on the current stock market, and how long this bearmarket will last.

So in short:

노트

So now lawsuit over, but where is the big pump?

Well, I think that the big pump can only occur, if Bitcoin pumps. Bitcoin needs to go to 40k and more, then yes, XRP can go higher.

But 20 USD and more? Only if Bitcoin makes new alltime highs, I'm afraid.

There simply is not enough liquidity in the market yet, and so we have to see what Bitcoin will do.

If Bitcoin dumps, then so will XRP, despite this whole thing.

노트

The problem is that this "win" over the SEC came too late, at a time when interest rates are too high, and thus liquidity dried up.

If this had happened back in 2021, then XRP would have mooned. But 2 years too late, I'm afraid, is bad news in this bad market environment of very high interest rates, inverted yield curves, and such dangers.

XRP will only moon in the next Bitcoin bullrun, and that again depends on when the economy will return to a low interest rate, high liquidity economy.