Top-down $BTCUSD Analysis

2018년 6월 18일

It’s needless to say that the macro view and perspective of BTC is bearish. Here follows a top down analysis down from the Monthly to the intraday, explaining my views and areas where I will look to take action (and why).

Things to note: With my directional bias being bearish, I will mostly look for short opportunities on pumps, with the exception of a potential raid of the February low, possibly providing liquidity for a stronger move up.


Monthly:



The most interesting thing to watch on the monthly is this months close. This 6440 level has given quite the reactions in the past and it will be interesting to see whether we can manage to remain afloat on a monthly closing basis. If we don’t I expect strong support to occur at the outlined pink area (4700-4350).

Furthermore, note the possibility of the February low of 5855, where a lot of orders will be resting underneath. These orders can get raided and be used as fuel for a possible reversal

Weekly:



With bears getting quite comfortable during the last few weeks, I expect some shorts having to be squeezed. A push into the significant 7300 area will lead to some more longs getting trapped thinking this is THE reversal. This is a area where I will be looking for shorts (execution found on 4h timeframe later on).

Daily:



The Daily adds a strong level at which I will be very comfortable taking shorts, having the execution outlined on 1h.

Last few daily candles have been tight consolidations, which is why I expect some larger weekly expansion this week.

4H:



The 4h shows a very important level, annotated in red, which I will be having my short orders as part of the weekly 7300 level set-up. (7186-7297)

1H:



Shows a bearish zone right above the outlined Daily level of 7800. This zone is slightly above some important highs where liquidity should rest above. As this liquidity gets raided, this box should provide an excellent entry point for shorts (on the premise of the Daily level expectedly providing great ressitance).


Final words
These are my game-plans for the slightly larger swings, the only thing that rests is waiting until price comes to my outlined areas. I am planning on posting my scalping plays on twitter from now on, so feel free to catch up with me there as well.

This is my first ever Tradingview publishing, so let me know if you like this post and the given format. (Smash that upvote button ^^). Feel free to reach out to me for feedback!


Safe trading! - NielsvH

https://twitter.com/CryptoNvH

2018년 7월 2일

노트

New Month new opportunities to make money. (and an update!)

Monthly:



The monthly close is relatively boring compared to the weekly.

After taking the liquidity unerneath the significant February low (more on this on the Weekly analysis), we bought our way back up to the 6600 level and practically closed right at it.

This does not give any significant confirmation of any sort of trend reversal for me.


Bullishness: Didn't close below February low

Bearishness: Didn't get a massive buy back to 6600+ levels either.


Weekly:

''I will mostly look for short opportunities on pumps, with the exception of a potential raid of the February low, possibly providing liquidity for a stronger move up.'' -->

This aged very well and if you play the chart you can clearly see the bullish reaction the market has collecting stops and liquidity below 5855.

This transforms us into short-term bulls, heading into our main areas of shorting outlined on the original Weekly and Daily analysis (7300 Weekly level & 7800 Daily level).

Daily:

Another interesting shorting area (for a shorter term play), is develping on the Daily. I will be making a seperate post for that.
For now just keep in mind the 7800 shorting area I presented in the original analysis.

Conclusion/Final words:

With raiding the 5855 low we activated a short term bullishness which will likely trap in a lot more people who believe this is THE bottom. On top of that bottom shorters are getting squeezed out as their positions are greatly underwater.

In reality we are still bearish from a higher time frame perspective and I will continue to take short set-ups that I outlined in great detail in the original analysis. These plays are still as viable as ever (don't forget them because I posted them 2 weeks ago ^^).

Safe trading! -NielsvH