롱

Bullish swing trade opportunity for Bitcoin

업데이트됨

Couple things you may have noticed about bitcoin recently. Volatility and volume are back in big way. Take a look at this chart and see if you agree. We have dropped to about -50% of where we were 1 month ago. All in very rapid succession, large legs down at a time. More recently we've been through a lot of deep bearish candles, marked by extremely high volume and typical exchange lag/errors. This is the feeling opposite of euphoria. Capitulation.

Looking at some indicators that handle parabolic moves well, we can see that these recent moves sub 5k, have bottomed out the RSIC indicator by @ErickSu. The only other time that happened, was when bitcoin we parabolic from 6k to 20k. When the RSIC indicator is outside the bounds of 20 or 80, it tends to make large moves without impedance. This recent triangle breakout, has also put us back inside the RSIC inner range. We tend to ping pong between the two sides, until we hammer out the outer range, and move back inward.

Considering where we are, and how far we dropped, this seems like a pretty good time to get long. If you look at the daily volume, we are declining, meaning a bulk of the traders are sitting on the sideline, waiting for confirmation of direction. That combined with the crazy volatility and lack of resistance due to the 3 tiered fall bitcoin played out, i think we could be moving up in a possibly staggering way. Like bitcoin used to do.

If the bear flag fills out, never mind. I'm super bearish in that regard. Targeting a -90% retracement from all time high.

Good luck trading!

노트

A link to the RSIC indicator.

It is a private indicator, I realize now. So if you're interested in using it, talk to ericksu

노트

Look at how little volume occured at the various ranges with the blue indicator on the right. Look at how volume is down. Soon to spike through and make bitcoin move. If 4k doesnt hold 24 hours, I would start to get worried. But I think we move up from here, in large lambo chunks.

노트

Daily candle looks like its going to close outside the range of the bear flag. I think we are heading north of 5k before retesting 4k

노트

For the moment, it appears the rising wedge has broken downwards. I am bearish for the time being.

노트

I am now thinking this is the start of the next, possibly last leg down for bitcoin. We are at a confluence of a 50% fib from the past 10 weeks high and low. We are also resting on one of the first, and shallowest trendlines, that line extended from the 2 waves down off the first impulse into sub 4000's.

노트

This indicator is pretty good at revealing which direction the trend is. Currently all timeframes are bearish. Including the 5m, which has failed to break back up into bullish range. You can see where the bullish corrective wave occurred on the various timeframes, and note how the candles obey support and resistance levels very accurately. Getting across the zero line is the biggest support or resistance level on this indicator. So the fact that they all are now bearish, and we're sitting on long term support, I think we're going down a ways.

노트

Where you can find the NMACD yourself