A Gann Guestimate

2019년 10월 16일

I tried an application of Gann into the descending wedge we might be in and the results are somewhat intriguing so I thought I'd publish and ask for some second opinions.

For those who don't know Gann's techniques work over periods of 192 bars known as a pattern of harmonics. There's usually some large kind of price action that happens around these frequent points.
You can look into the geometry of how the angles are formed and used if interested in learning, but here's the important bits.

Price may be the exciting factor, but the other axis is TIME and you have to take it into consideration

Being that as it is, the horizontal lines are when we're at equilibrium and the large movements that follow these geometries are a form of "momentum" in the sense of where the price would be expected to go over a period of time.

That's just my take on how to interpret the Gann square.
(To learn how to setup the square you'd better go over to youtube or something because it's not easy)

Now, for the descending wedge the most prime targets for reversal are currently the two circled spots near the end at the major intersecting angles (in yellow)
The lower bound may not be properly aligned but for now it's looking good enough to state the case.
Should we continue on the momentum that the current patterns are giving us then we might...

• Fall out of the current H&S pattern
  
• Follow the angle of momentum downwards for a good while
  
• Eventually hit one or both of the zones around 5.9k-6.1k in late November or 5.4k-5.6k in early December
  
• Start a neat little mega bull run
  

Again, I'm looking for second opinions on things someone else might see could be better to hopefully improve my TA

As always, happy trading and good luck my friends

2019년 10월 23일

노트

Well folks, it happened a bit sooner than predicted but it followed the path expected.

I get a feeling the bottom for this move has yet to come so my targets are:
T1 - 7,100
T2 - 6,750
T3 - 6,400

2019년 10월 24일

노트

THINGS TO NOTE:

1) This was a very obvious H&S on the daily chart as detailed above
2) CME Futures expire on the 25th, historically BTC drops ~75% of the time before that expiration (usually 1-3 days before the end)
3) This is an almost textbook bear flag setup the last month

4) And MOST IMPORTANTLY: Good trades revolve around a confluence of major signals/patterns converging to say the same thing.
The psychology of the market will converge in the same direction and cause these major moves because the MAJORITY of the market comes together for a push in the same direction.
This is why a basic understanding of patterns and TA is necessary to make your own decisions based on all possible viewpoints!

2019년 10월 25일

노트

Ho baby, I can't say I thought we would test the upper bounds quite this soon!

But even still BTC decided to respec' that wedge there, so it looks like we're still on track for the most part.

We could see more upside until about 9k from the FOMOing before another bleed.
ALSO: Looking at Ichimoku the cloud, it's right on the edge of this wedge here and will likely act as resistance and a bounce target, so keep that in mind going forward

2019년 10월 27일

주문취소됨

2020년 1월 21일

노트

Rechecking this from a TA standpoint and with some 2020 vision (pun intended) this chart was actually very on point without the intervention of the Great Wick of China.

Despite the $1000 offset, this was a decent call