Gold showing mixed signals / Price-action can turn both ways

2020년 12월 14일

Regarding my account: I preserved my account as I went on a weekend break without a position, patiently waiting for current week to start, so I have no opened positions and will act accordingly as I will explain in my commentary.


Technical analysis: It should be no Technical surprise that Gold is under strong Selling pressure (Head and Shoulders pattern well respected) as DX broken Lower Low Support, as Gold is still ignoring and without stronger decline since Usd-Jpy pair is suffering strong hits and currently broken the Higher Low Support, creating imbalance on Gold. Gold almost tested #1,837.80 Lower High Resistance throughout last week, which is the #1st Resistance on Hourly 4 chart. What keeps Gold on Selling pressure is U.S. Trade settlement and general reaction to uncertainty on the markets - Investors are doing what I was waiting for - withdrawing capital from Gold to more riskier assets, and Technically, Head and Shoulders pattern. Main Support (#1,820.80) could be broken and represent a call for Hourly 4 chart’s Lower Low (#1,805.80) as the next Technical stop. Bullish reversal is only possible if #1,837.80 Resistance breaks - Personally, I give less chances to that. Gold erased last week’s gains and is marginally near the strong Support on the Hourly 4 chart as, despite the dip on Usd-Jpy, DX is still without recovery signs on a positive U.S. Trade deal environment and eminent Oil rise. The Medium-term charts Daily and Weekly still point to a lower Price-action which reveals underlying Bearish trend. A relative risk factor is off the markets and that’s why DX should continue to loose and add more Buying pressure on Gold, but since Gold is ignoring it, Usd-Jpy pair is my strongest correlation at the moment. Also, as long as Bond notes are Trading on Support zone, their Channel Down will be intact and will progressively apply Selling pressure on Gold, as Bond notes attract risk seeking capital from Gold. I do expect however the currency speculators to push DX as High as they can ahead of this week’s Fundamental events in order to secure a more comfortable Selling entry in late session near the weekend.


Fair Technical trend: Gold was giving me nothing but low reliability signals as Resistance/Support breakouts were invalidated #9 out of #9 times, Bought or Sold back Intra-day which is disastrous for Traders, especially for those who has smaller capital. The Price-action is under extreme Hourly 4 Volatility and on very important crossroads, as my advice for Short-term Traders to remain without a positions/sidelines. The Hourly 4 should break to the downside and at the same time DX broke their Hourly 4 Support (both marginally) which is Technically Bearish for Gold. Bond notes however (which has been the benchmark for Gold lately along with the Usd-Jpy pair) keeps their Channel Down intact (unless the Resistance breaks). This displays a very mixed picture for Gold and I can only approach it with breakout points. I am well known as a Technical Trader more than Fundamental, but Technical analysis provided nothing but mixed signals so I will approach with extreme care, especially as Year ending is on a horizon. It is important to note that Gold reversed on more than #14 points and it was #9 out of #9 times that Gold printed the fakeout. This is translated into temporary minor movements, which will be overshadowed when the Trend appears.


My next move: I will Buy with tight Stop-loss, and if my position of #7$ gets invalidated, I will turn to Selling towards #1,800.80 psychological barrier.