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9월 4일

Chart Analysis: XAU/USD (Gold Spot vs. USD)
Based on the two charts you have provided, here is a detailed technical analysis of XAU/USD using price action and chart pattern observations:

1. Weekly Flag Trendline (Higher Time Frame Context)
The upper and lower yellow trendlines represent a possible flag pattern on the weekly chart. This suggests a consolidation phase after a strong impulsive move. A flag pattern typically signals a continuation of the previous trend, which, if the context is bullish, indicates that after consolidation, there may be a continuation to the upside.

On both charts, we can observe that price action is contained within this broader structure, indicating that price is in a correction phase rather than an impulsive phase.

2. Key Horizontal Levels
2,532.144 and 2,506.245: These levels act as strong resistance zones. The price has struggled to break above these levels multiple times, indicating significant selling pressure or profit-taking at these points.

2,471.313: This is a key support level. The price has reacted to this level before and, most recently, has bounced back after testing this support zone. This suggests that buyers are willing to step in at this level, providing a floor for the price.

3. Descending Channel and Price Action Patterns
Descending Triangle/Channel Pattern: On the 15-minute chart, the price seems to be forming a descending triangle pattern (lower highs and a flat support at 2,471.313). This pattern is typically bearish, suggesting a potential breakdown if the support does not hold.

Potential Reversal Patterns: After testing the lower trendline of the weekly flag pattern and finding support at the 2,471.313 level, there was a notable bullish reaction. This can imply a short-term reversal, especially if confirmed by a break above the minor resistance level of 2,494.370.

4. Consolidation Zone and Lower Time Frame Patterns
The 15-minute chart shows a clear consolidation pattern after the sharp decline, with price action currently moving sideways between 2,494 and 2,506. A break above this consolidation range could signal a short-term bullish continuation towards the upper resistance levels, while a break below would imply a continuation of the bearish trend observed previously.

5. Breakout and Pullback Zones
The yellow dotted lines on the 15-minute chart indicate key areas where the price broke out from consolidation phases. These areas are crucial for identifying potential entry points in a trending market. If the price retests these zones and finds resistance or support, they could act as triggers for either continuation or reversal trades.

Trading Strategy Considerations
Bullish Bias: Traders with a bullish bias might consider waiting for a breakout above the 2,506.245 resistance, looking for a confirmation with a pullback to this level as support. The target could be the upper boundary of the flag around 2,532.144 or higher, depending on momentum and broader market conditions.

Bearish Bias: A trader with a bearish outlook might wait for the price to break below the 2,471.313 support level, looking for short positions targeting lower levels aligned with the descending channel's trajectory.

Range Trading: Given the current consolidation between 2,494.370 and 2,506.245, range traders could look for entries at the edges of this range with tight stops and defined profit targets within the range.

Conclusion
Given the price action analysis and current chart patterns, the XAU/USD market appears to be in a consolidation phase within a broader flag pattern. This suggests that while the immediate outlook may be neutral to bearish, there is potential for a bullish breakout if key resistance levels are breached. Traders should watch for confirmed breakouts or breakdowns from these levels to guide their trading decisions, keeping in mind the broader market trend and any fundamental drivers influencing gold prices.