XAUUSD H4 | Market Outlook

- Traders await Fed's policy clarity: Traders are eagerly awaiting more clarity on the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy before making significant trading decisions. They are uncertain about whether the recent decrease in U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar, as well as the tamer CPI data, will be enough to push the Fed into cutting interest rates.

- Impact of CPI data: The consumer price index (CPI) for April rose by 0.4%, which is slightly lower than the expected 5% annual increase. This could potentially lead the Federal Reserve to pause an upcoming interest rate hike. However, there are still risks that may require the Fed to maintain higher rates for a longer period.

- Challenges for gold: Gold may face challenges due to steady core inflation and the impact of rising interest rates. While economic concerns and the U.S. debt ceiling issue could drive gold prices towards record highs, the cautious sentiment among investors may lead them to sell rallies, especially if gold prices go beyond $2,050.

- Debt ceiling concerns: U.S. President Joe Biden has highlighted the urgency of addressing the debt ceiling to avoid a potential recession. The uncertainty surrounding the response to a potential increase in the debt ceiling, along with weak U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve's pause on interest rates, is impacting gold prices.

- Technical analysis: Gold's near-term direction is currently being influenced by its pivot at $2002.54. A sustained move above this level indicates the presence of buyers, with the first upside target at $2035.78 and the next major target at $2082.03. Conversely, a failure to hold $2002.54 suggests the presence of sellers, with a possible downside target at $1956.30.

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