MQP-IER-001: GOLD TO 1800 BY 09/15/23, PROBABLY A WEEK EARLIER

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HEADER - This is where we got to from previous post. Since it has reached a new stage, it deserves a new post.

SUMMARY - Gold to 1800 by 09/15/23, but I'm thinking more like 09/06/23 (edited, I previously wrote 09/05/23).

DETAILS - The details are in the linked post below. The last third to half of it is how we got here.

STRATEGY - Pick a spot and short, short, and short again. Will get into the specifics within 8 days from now or by 08/23/23.

NOTES - Per usual, will add as we go.

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NOTES 2 - Boxes.
a) so black boxes are high odds right now
b) gray boxes are low odds right now
c) invalidation by breaking above first 4 black boxes AND HOLD (the higher the better)

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NOTES 3 - Still "sideways to 8/22"?
a) that's base case for at least 8 hours
b) if things change bearishly in 8 hours...
c) then some of the more bearish gray boxes become black....
d) while some of the higher black boxes become gray...
e) and so on...

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NOTES 4 - I probably have one more draft before 8/23 coming.
a) if I run this through the 5 ratios previously noted in last post ...
b) I will for sure have a better chart to snack on, especially closer to 8/23
c) we will cross that bridge if and when...

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NOTES 5 - First updates.
a) consider:

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b) so after completing one ratio and review 2 more (but not completed)
c) the floor for 09/06/23 is 1817, not 1800
d) NOT THAT IT CAN'T HIT 1800, it just not likely by 09/06/23

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e) I'd like to point out that this is not the same as what I've done before where I attempted to forecast a giant move "BASED ON EVERYTHING"...
f) this is heavily weighted last 3 months to figure out how "the dice is rigged" to...
g) forecast 3 weeks ahead

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h) plus stricter guardrails for invalidation

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i) goodnight

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NOTES 6, 1:35 AM ET 8/16
1) odds of lower low before sideways to 8/22 now roughly 50/50, maybe a slight dog
2) so now we wait a week for an entry

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NOTES 7, 8/16, 6:27 PM ET, LOWER LOW AND REVERSAL, NOW 1894.XX
1) so got that lower low at 1891-ish I talked about last night in previous post
2) HOWEVER, there a strong reversal to 1915-ish setup for next 24 hours
3) price usually will take this revesal up...

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4) too busy to add more right now... but overall no changes to expectations
5) basically move to 1817 give or take, the issue is how fast and how much short term zig zag

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NOTES 8, 8/17, 8:42 AM ET 1900.xx
1) from 1902, from 1889 overnight
2) odds of retest down now 4 in 5 or better
3) 1910-1915 24 hours AFTER retest
4) retest should happen...
5) within 200 minutes (so, by noon ET)

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NOTES 9,8/17 10:35 AM ET 1894.xx
1) retest in process
2) odds of retest holding 1/4 or less
3) so we should expect lower low...

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4) continuing...
5) that's 1885-1887
6) but on 15 min chart, it should look like this:

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7) take that chart above with some salt
8) basically it says 1 more lower low
9) and legit rebound to 1908
10) followed by sideways to slowly up
11) but that ceiling has dropped from 1930+
12) to 1920+
13) and it's look like 1915-1919 with brief odds above 1920
14) by brief odds I mean quick selloff once hitting 1920+

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15. this red example is only a 3 pt difference:

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16. but it holds the floor w/o going lower...
17. opens the door for better short entry on 8/23-24
18. that's it for today

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19. just to review:

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20. so that's still my plan
21. but I also have a put from 1901 November expiration
22. just in case it wants to drip and drip and drip and drip and drip and drip....
23. I mean that's what it's been doing
24. again, that's what I'm doing, not what I am recommending you do
25. bc the smart move IS TO TO WAIT FOR 8/23-24

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26. and here's why:

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27. bc in theory, even if it continues to drip...
28. odds STRONGLY favors the same 1900 entry on 8/23-24
29. but the FOMO in me keeps asking why it wouldn't do this:

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30. that's why I have november expiration
31. that's also why I would cover at 1887-ish
32. so it's essentially trading with the trend tactically
33. IF YOU DO, DO THAT AT YOUR OWN RISK

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34. This goes without saying, but the key to tactical trading is:
35. Constant attention to price action and/or trail with hard stop...
36. EVERY, SINGLE, TIME. FULL STOP.
37. I am not here to give advice or specifics for tactical (short term) trading.

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38. About to stop out on 15 second bars:

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39. 1:35 PM ET, covered puts 1985.xx

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40. I waited and shorted again bc of this blue line here:

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41. but reversal risk is high again at 1885

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42. I have extremely high risk 8/18 calls with stops at 3 sides of this rectangle:

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43. Why long here?
44. So here's break of the blue line:

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45. 1885 is HARD STOP

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4:44 PM ET 1888.XX COUNTERTREND LONG UPDATE:

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1) did not hit 1885, actually 1885.03
2) this part is tricky depending on how your order is structured

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3) if you trade ICE ticker, it did get hit like 1884.5 or so
4) my options limit sell DID get hit
5) but I will update at or before 10:30 PM ET when the box expires
6) for the purposes of this long now, HARD STOP is now 1886.75
7) with 1902 ceiling and 10:30 PM ET time limit
8) meaning sell the long at 1886.75, 1902, 10:30 PM ET whichever hits first

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5:01 PM ET RAISE STOP
1) to 1887.75
2) FOR ALL TICKERS

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3) 6 min later
4) it should be 1887.90
5) not 1887.75

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7:23 PM ET RAISE STOP
1) to 1888.55
2) is this necessary?
3) well yeah

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4) 2 min later
5) raise again to 1889.45

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7:40 PM ET RAISE HARD STOP ALL TICKERS to 1889.8

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1) when you trade tactically against the trend
2) you always have to watch or
3) you have to always watch
4) pick one
5) and religiously trail your stop

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7:54 PM ET RAISE AGAIN
1) to 1890.35
2) 1893 is within reach
3) but we almost have to sell at 1893 bc of incoming vol on 1 min bars

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4) ICE ticker stopped out 25 min ago
5) so it is 8:25 PM ET

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6) so the rest of the way will be concerning live tickers
7) of which there are 5 left that I scan
8) XAUUSD (spot gold) from OANDA, FXOPEN, FOREXCOM, PEPPERSTONE, AMD SAXO

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9) typo... and SAXO
10) for whatever reasons the bid/ask for ICE ticker always move about $0.45 more

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11) but I do use ICE/ICD ticker to post charts bc it has most detailed price and volume history (w exception of futures GC ticker, which always WAY OUT either direction)

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12) with that said raise stop to 1891.15

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13) for reference, use FXCM or FXOPEN if trading live
14) or at any time when $1 matters

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15) 9:09 PM ET, raise to 1892.35

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16) 1893.87 at 9:17 PM ET RAISE STOP TO 1893
17) so earlier I did say that there will vol on 1-min chart at 1893

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18) see notes above at "7:54 PM ET, 3) but we almost have to sell at 1893 bc of incoming vol on 1-min bars"

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19) so here is 1-min bars:

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20) fwiw, raise stop again to 1893.55 (it's 9:20 PM ET)

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21) so here's where we are:

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22) so it looks like we're going to get hit as I type this ... and it just got hit

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23) so what now?
24) so we stay out of this for a better entry towards 1902-1908
25) problem is I gotta clean up at home so I can't really do this to help you out

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26) so here's this chart again I posted this morning:

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27) we are basically doing "a faster version of this"
28) we are at that brake before higher
29) but I don't know that unless I watch this THE ENTIRE TIME
30) and I can't so... so that's all I got to give you

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31) just one more thing
32)

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33) for chart above: here is that blue marker from earlier vs what's happening right now
34) and ...

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35) here's same chart w/ matching bollingers but less defined waves:

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36) so first, for the sake of time, take this chart (above) with some salt per usual
37) that said, the rules remain valid
38) if the blue wave breaks up (and it is, pretty sure looking right now)...
39) see where the extensions of the blue bollinger are?
40) if you're familiar with the old "squeeze-mo" or squeeze momentum from years ago from (I just can't remember the dude's name, and dude I'm sorry I forgot)...
41) the blue wave is crossing THE MEDIAN OF RESPECTIVE BOLLINGER BAND
42) so price will HEAD FOR THAT HIGH BAND WHERE THE RECTANGLE IS
43) we can forecast its time BECAUSE PRICE HAS TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE WAVE
44) again, I can only provide support if I WATCH ALL THE TIME AND I CANNOT RIGHT NOW
45) but that's the road map ...
46) it's 1893.xx as I type this so good luck and have a good night

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47) last note with red wave which is 2x blue wave:

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48) for charty above:
49) so 3 very light red extensions are red wave's bollinger band 1 SD
50) the rule here is at that location, which is the second box (about the same as first box)...
51) this will be bout 1:45 AM ET 8/18 (tomorrow)
52) the math here is 1/2 the band (size of the long red double arrow) from the red band's future position...
53) will be where price is...
54) in other words ... a bit less than the previoius high from 9 AM ET this morning

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55) keep STOPS TIGHT AF and see you in the morning

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11:14 PM ET, IF I was up, and I'm going to bed, so I'm not...
1) I would go long here 1892.19 NOW
2) AND HARD STOP 1891.85

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3) tight AF...
4) but if it's going to work, it better hold RIGHT HERE, or it's not worth it
5) and then RELIGIOUSLY TRAIL UP THE STOP
6) bc, it's oversold AF on 1-min 15sec bar
7) I mean if it keeps heading lower here, odds start swing DOWN HARD AGAIN

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8) 6 min later... stopped out already
9) it's over, not worth the long any more
10) odds look like 55/45 bear again
11) also NOT WORTH SHORTING EITHER
12) so no value either direction for at least 150-300 minutes or 2.5-5 hours

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FRIDAY 8/18 2:12 PM ET, 100 PT MOVE UPDATE
1) with help of "fibonacci ratio IRL", I cay say that there is...
2) a "36 hour window"
3) somewhere from THURSDAY 8/24 TO THURSDAY 8/31
4) but likely from FRIDAY 8/25 9 AM ET TO TUESDAY 8/29 4 PM ET
5) that there should be 100 pt move in 36 hours
6) even 30 hours
7) in the mean time, the curves are so bearish that it's hard to imagine anything above 1911 on 8/23-8/24
8) so there it is, that's what I think I know

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9) oh yeah, I'm thinking 1905 to 1805
10) but the wide range should be 1918 to 1788

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11) basically gold is heading for collapse on 5.5-hour bars
12) but we are still at least a week out from this move
13) so until then, short any decent bounce and you'll be fine

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14) in fact...
15) it's 2:25 AM ET 1893.XX
16) it's 1893.52 as I type
17) shorting w/ a tight 1894.40 stop looks excellent

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18) BTW, typo above at on time marker, it should be 2:12 AM, not PM, bc it's still dark here

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19) nevermind on "excellent" comment, it looks decent, not great
20) just keep trailing stops TIGHT AF and you'll be fine

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8/18 11:02 AM ET EXPECT NOTHING FOR A WEEK:

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1. In my car
2. But nothing worth pointing out.
3. Not even worth shorting until 8/23, next Wed.
4. Wrap for this week.

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MONDAY 8/21, 1:07 AM ET, HEADING FOR 1903 AGAIN
1. so like this:

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2. basically same picture... just slight variations
3. no change in plans
4. wait until 8/23, 24, 25 or 26 to short
5. early 24th still seem most likely

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6. pre-crash high 1913
7. 8/30 floor is 1806-ish
8. really nothing else worth commenting on

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9. tradeable short 1905-1825

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1:51 AM ET 8/21
1) for chart above:
2) this ellipse here, w/ price from 1895-1925
3) is super important for long run bull thesis
4) I've stated before that if late July early August failed to break out...
5) that there is one last window in Jan-March 2024
6) price needs to hit 1913-1925 area on Wed-Thurs, maybe even early Friday
7) IN ORDER TO KEEP THIS LAST CHANCE REALISITIC
8) if price stays UNDER 1905 all the way down
9) THIS CUTS ODDS OF JAN-MAR 2024 WINDOW SIGNIFICANTLY
10) why?

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11) bc it places odds of "one more leg down to 1720 or whatever" at 60-40 or better
12) so let's say we find ourselves 1720 in October, say 55 days from now...
13) while not impossible, it's very unrealistic to see pice break out above 2080 in Jan 2024
14) or 90 days after that
15) IN OTHER WORDS...
16) next 4 days of price action
17) holds half the odds (give or take) of gold bull thesis for now through Mar 2026
18) which by extension of zig-zag, kill gold bull thesis for next 8 years

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8/21 MONDAY, 10.30 AM E5 1887.XX
1) continuing from previous notes
2) sell off before 1900 this morning is a bad sign for bulls
3) this strongly suggests 1906 is not in the cards
4) so pre crash high would be WED 8/23 1905 AT BEST...
5) so entry short moves back to 8/23
6) crash moves to 8/25 placing first low 1820-1825 SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY AM
7) that would be 8/27 or 8/28

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8) tehis also places 1805 BY END OF DAY 8/31

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9) this also means LOWER LOW IN OCTOBER 1720 BALL PARK

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10) chart at top replay has us following gray boxes
11) so that means lower low tomorrow 187x possible
13) if so that really puts Wed ceiling under 1900

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8/21 4:33 PM ET UPDATE 1894.xx
1) no changes except
2) it's getting really hard to see to see bulls change the outcome

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8/22, TUESDAY, 6:06 AM ET, 1903.XX
1) so floor held and now we're above 1900
2) no changes to overall expectations
3) that is ENTRY SHORT TOMORROW WED 8/23
4) 1825 EXPECTED ON 8/28
5) 1805 BY END OF 8/31
6) celing for this bounce is now 1906
7) besides being closer to 1906 bc it's 1903.xx....
8) there is no legit reason to expect a prices above 1906 for the rest of today and Wed

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9) continuing at 6:15 AM ET
10) so let's talk max vol for bulls for next 36 hours (day and a half)
11) so this is is "in the realm of possibility"
12) 1 PM ET TODAY 1918.50
13) 7 PM ET TODAY 1917

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14) 3 AM ET TOMORROW (WED) 1915.50
15) 2 PM ET TOMORROW 1913.50

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16) so that's saying, SHOULD PRICE HIT THOSE NUMBERS JUST LISTED, TAKE THAT ENTRY SHORT
17) HOWEVER....
18) NONE OF THEM ARE EXPECTED TO HIT

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19) EXCEPT FOR 1913.50 for mid-day tomorrow, this is still within reason but not favored to happen
20) that means that I intend to ENTRY SHORT WED 1PM ET TO MIDNIGHT, around 1910-1913 should that be made available

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21) if that's not available, then I will short 1906

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22) that's a wrap for today, see you tomorrow

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8/22 9:48 AM ET 1893.XX
1. No changes to plans after dropping 10 this morning.
2. 1913 is max vol until Wed afternoon ET.
3. Live odds favor 1906 ceiling and entry 27-31 hours from now.

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8/22 11:16 AM ET -- END OF POST, HERE IS NEXT 8 DAYS:

MQP-IER-002: GOLD 1830 BY 8/28/23, 1806 BY 09/07/23

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8/24, 9:16 AM ET, THIS POST IS STILL LIVE.
1) I shorted at 1818
2) HARD STOP 1822.5

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3) basically here:

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4) 10:25 AM ET, COMPLETED ENTRY 1919.50
5) hard stop 1822.5

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6) it's supposed to go STRAIGHT DOWN at this point of the break of second circle

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7) so drop stop to 1920.4
8) and trail it down this time
9) I'm busy today, so I can't post tactics whether or not I'm trading tactically
10) and it looks like I won't have time for that

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11) FWIW drop stop to 1919.25 now (10:32 AM ET)

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12) 10:40 AM ET... I most of the puts
13) just holding november puts now
14) the shape of this move now wants to put in a floor at 1885
15) but it still needs to retest ahead of 8/31
16) so that's why I have some november GLD puts (it's cheap, and easy to hold for awhile)

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17) otherwise, this staying power at 1920's region is about to invalidate this chart too in 7-8 hours if it doesn't reach 1902-1907 by NY CLOSE
18) and it doesn't look like it will right now

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19) that's wrap for this one too.

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8/24, 12:44 PM ET, CONSIDER:

1) in chart above:

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2) on micro trends, we are heading for 1909.5-1913 by 6.30 PM ET
3) in big picture, this move to 1805 by 9/15 or a week earlier has statically invalidated
4) so the issue is what now?
5) if you are a bull here (you think 1926, then 1936 are next)
6) then this move towards 1911-ish NEEDS TO NOT HAPPEN
7) bc it would setup 1895-1900 for Friday after Powell speech 10:00 AM ET

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8) 1:31 PM ET:

9) so will it stop?
10) we will know soon

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11) so if I use 1 min bar waves to show binary outcomes:

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12) here's live odds:

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8/24 PM ET ALMOST 7 PM ET
1) if u replay chart at top
2) it's a coin flip right now for us to hit the top halves of NEXT 4 BLACK BOXES
3) but it's hard to see numbers under 1870-1875
4) but that doesn't mean "1805 by 9/15" is live
5) bc of 2 way vol
6) with that said, here's next round of expectations

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7) for chart above
8) bears need to push HARD to get to 1910 even though it's only 5.5 more
9) why?

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10) ealier I said 1909.5-1913 by 6.30 PM ET

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11) that was bc the micro bear trends exhaust soon afterwards

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12) so now?
13) bulls have window to midnight ET

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14) but IF THEY HESITATE...

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15. bears will OWN FRIDAY

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16. ooooh, looks like HESITATION

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17) hesitation means penalty (like a turnover in the NFL)
18) we will know by 10:00 PM ET

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19) 9:54 PM ET 1917.xx
20) from 1914.xx
21) if white is up and black is down
22) then we have some more gray... but dark gray
23) bulls have 2 more hours

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24) to be clear, 2 more hours to setup a bullish day for Friday
25) it's looking like a DOWN FIRST TO 10 AM
26) then bounce after 10 AM

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27) so price is under last relative low w/in last hours...
28) bulls are out of time to make tomorrow a bullish day vs yesterday
29) but can still get an close to even day:
30) so again, down first, then close strong after POWELL

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ALMOST 11 PM ET -- THIS POST HAS ENDED AGAIN AND PROBABLY DONE FOR. HERE IS NEXT FEW DAYS: