Gold (XAUUSD) Analysis: Anticipated Market Movement
업데이트됨
1. Current Market Context
Phase and Structure
Left Chart (1H):
Price is currently in Wave 4 of a larger structure, moving within a corrective phase.
Wave 5 is expected to complete the bullish push, potentially reaching 2,680.70 or slightly higher, before a Thursday/Friday correction into a bearish weekly close.
Right Chart (4H):
Price recently completed a Phase B (Distribution), with lower highs forming a divergence.
Current push is part of a liquidity grab/inducement phase in preparation for a markdown phase (Phase C).
Key Observations
A final bullish push (Wave 5) is expected, likely fueled by trapped liquidity (inducement).
The correction into Phase C will mark the beginning of the weekly markdown.
2. Expected Price Movement
Bullish Push (Wave 5 Completion)
Target Levels:
First target: 2,680.70 (Divergence Wave 5).
Stretch target: 2,695.32 (1.236 extension of Wave 5 diagonal).
Invalidation: A failure to break 2,680.70 or a reversal before hitting 2,695.32 would indicate weakness.
Correction and Markdown Phase
Key Reversal Levels:
Expected to top at resistance between 2,680.70 and 2,695.32, triggering markdown.
Projected Downside Targets:
Short-term target: 2,622.15 (support from prior accumulation).
Medium-term target: 2,601.81 (support line of SC accumulation).
Extended target: 2,577.30 (Wave 3 must hold or invalidate further downside).
3. Key Price Levels
Bullish Resistance Zones
2,680.70: Divergence wave top (high probability reversal zone).
2,695.32: 1.236 extension; upper resistance limit.
2,735.88: Fibonacci 0.786 retracement, potential breakout target.
Support Levels
2,622.15: Support line for prior distribution; minor bounce area.
2,601.81: SC (Selling Climax) boundary for accumulation.
2,577.30: Wave 3 invalidation level; failure here signals a bearish continuation.
4. Trading Plan
Scenario 1: Bullish Completion of Wave 5
Setup: Look for a breakout above 2,650.0 with strong momentum.
Targets:
Take profits at 2,680.70 (primary target).
Hold remaining for 2,695.32.
Invalidation: If price fails to hold 2,650.0, exit longs.
Scenario 2: Correction After Wave 5
Setup: Look for signs of reversal between 2,680.70 and 2,695.32.
Short Entry:
On bearish rejection at resistance zone.
Confirmation of markdown with lower highs and bearish momentum.
Targets:
Short-term: 2,622.15.
Medium-term: 2,601.81.
Extended: 2,577.30.
Stop-Loss: Above 2,695.32 to manage risk.
Scenario 3: Failure of Wave 5 Completion
Setup: If price fails to break 2,680.70 and reverses early:
Early markdown phase starts.
Short setup triggers below 2,650.0, targeting lower support levels.
Targets:
Short-term: 2,622.15.
Medium-term: 2,601.81.
Invalidation: Reclaiming 2,680.70 invalidates this scenario.
5. Commentary for Viewers
What I Expect This Week
Gold is currently showing signs of a final push higher (Wave 5) toward 2,680.70 or slightly higher (2,695.32) before topping out.
Thursday or Friday will likely mark a weekly correction, as the market transitions into Phase C markdown.
The correction may test lower levels, with potential targets between 2,601.81 and 2,577.30.
How to Trade
For Long Traders:
Look for entries on dips to support levels like 2,622.15, targeting 2,680.70.
Be cautious near resistance zones and ready to exit longs.
For Short Traders:
Look for reversal signs at or near 2,680.70 or 2,695.32.
Aim for markdown targets at 2,622.15, 2,601.81, or lower.
Risk Management
Use defined stop-loss levels below support for long trades and above resistance for short trades.
Avoid overleveraging, especially during volatility near key reversal levels.
Phase and Structure
Left Chart (1H):
Price is currently in Wave 4 of a larger structure, moving within a corrective phase.
Wave 5 is expected to complete the bullish push, potentially reaching 2,680.70 or slightly higher, before a Thursday/Friday correction into a bearish weekly close.
Right Chart (4H):
Price recently completed a Phase B (Distribution), with lower highs forming a divergence.
Current push is part of a liquidity grab/inducement phase in preparation for a markdown phase (Phase C).
Key Observations
A final bullish push (Wave 5) is expected, likely fueled by trapped liquidity (inducement).
The correction into Phase C will mark the beginning of the weekly markdown.
2. Expected Price Movement
Bullish Push (Wave 5 Completion)
Target Levels:
First target: 2,680.70 (Divergence Wave 5).
Stretch target: 2,695.32 (1.236 extension of Wave 5 diagonal).
Invalidation: A failure to break 2,680.70 or a reversal before hitting 2,695.32 would indicate weakness.
Correction and Markdown Phase
Key Reversal Levels:
Expected to top at resistance between 2,680.70 and 2,695.32, triggering markdown.
Projected Downside Targets:
Short-term target: 2,622.15 (support from prior accumulation).
Medium-term target: 2,601.81 (support line of SC accumulation).
Extended target: 2,577.30 (Wave 3 must hold or invalidate further downside).
3. Key Price Levels
Bullish Resistance Zones
2,680.70: Divergence wave top (high probability reversal zone).
2,695.32: 1.236 extension; upper resistance limit.
2,735.88: Fibonacci 0.786 retracement, potential breakout target.
Support Levels
2,622.15: Support line for prior distribution; minor bounce area.
2,601.81: SC (Selling Climax) boundary for accumulation.
2,577.30: Wave 3 invalidation level; failure here signals a bearish continuation.
4. Trading Plan
Scenario 1: Bullish Completion of Wave 5
Setup: Look for a breakout above 2,650.0 with strong momentum.
Targets:
Take profits at 2,680.70 (primary target).
Hold remaining for 2,695.32.
Invalidation: If price fails to hold 2,650.0, exit longs.
Scenario 2: Correction After Wave 5
Setup: Look for signs of reversal between 2,680.70 and 2,695.32.
Short Entry:
On bearish rejection at resistance zone.
Confirmation of markdown with lower highs and bearish momentum.
Targets:
Short-term: 2,622.15.
Medium-term: 2,601.81.
Extended: 2,577.30.
Stop-Loss: Above 2,695.32 to manage risk.
Scenario 3: Failure of Wave 5 Completion
Setup: If price fails to break 2,680.70 and reverses early:
Early markdown phase starts.
Short setup triggers below 2,650.0, targeting lower support levels.
Targets:
Short-term: 2,622.15.
Medium-term: 2,601.81.
Invalidation: Reclaiming 2,680.70 invalidates this scenario.
5. Commentary for Viewers
What I Expect This Week
Gold is currently showing signs of a final push higher (Wave 5) toward 2,680.70 or slightly higher (2,695.32) before topping out.
Thursday or Friday will likely mark a weekly correction, as the market transitions into Phase C markdown.
The correction may test lower levels, with potential targets between 2,601.81 and 2,577.30.
How to Trade
For Long Traders:
Look for entries on dips to support levels like 2,622.15, targeting 2,680.70.
Be cautious near resistance zones and ready to exit longs.
For Short Traders:
Look for reversal signs at or near 2,680.70 or 2,695.32.
Aim for markdown targets at 2,622.15, 2,601.81, or lower.
Risk Management
Use defined stop-loss levels below support for long trades and above resistance for short trades.
Avoid overleveraging, especially during volatility near key reversal levels.
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🚨 Monday Trading Plan Update: "Patience is Key" 🚨
📅 Objective: Gain clarity by observing Monday's price action and the daily close.
🌟 Plan Breakdown
🛑 Sit-Out Mode (Main Strategy)
Mondays often bring choppy, unclear moves. By waiting for the daily close, we can spot:
Where key levels are forming.
How price reacts to these levels.
When to position for high-probability setups.
🎯 Scalp Option (For the Brave)
If you must trade, stick to small, low-risk scalps. Use high-confluence setups and tight risk management.
🔍 Why This Approach?
💡 "Not trading is also trading."
Avoid unnecessary losses from impatience.
Prepare for higher-quality setups later in the week.
Start the week with a clear and disciplined mindset.
📊 What to Observe Today:
Key levels and reactions.
Sentiment from market participants.
Volatility and range for the week.
💎 Key Takeaway
"Trading is a marathon, not a sprint." Starting your week with patience helps you trade smarter and align with your strategy.
Let's stay sharp, observe the market, and prepare for the opportunities ahead. 💪
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