Gold weekly forecast 6-10.11

2023년 11월 4일

Next week I expect gold to continue to rise. If you read the analysis to the end, you will see why. Let's start digging deeper into the market.


Macroeconomics

The FED has paused on interest rates, saying that decisions will be made meeting by meeting. Overall, they are not convinced that policy is restrictive enough to bring inflation down. J.P. also said that rates will remain high for a long time.

The NFP showed that the labour market is slowing down and the unemployment rate also rose to 3.9%.

This week we have the CPI.

The war is still active and that remains the main driver of the market. If there are new operations, gold will rise.

Even though the FED was a bit hawkish, the market did not crash, on the contrary, yields did. The economic indicators show that the economy is slowing down. At the moment, deflationary outcomes are driving markets higher. So our bias remains bullish.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/d1db2ScZ/


Top-Down Analysis

Monthly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nJlZJDTM/

Gold formed a bullish manipulation last month. This month is already bullish, I expect gold to continue its rally.

Gold also forms 3M and 6M manipulation


Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/wpuciWWB/

The week closed as an inside bar. The last two candles closed with nice rejections. On this time frame, the bullish sentiment remains.


Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/RHJj4ea7/

In other circumstances, I would say that gold is retesting the manipulation and will continue to fall. It may be, but only temporarily. On this chart, gold appears to be moving sideways.


Swing projection
https://www.tradingview.com/x/H1VwQRKL/

November is not always a bullish month, but the season is bullish for gold.



Benchmark
https://www.tradingview.com/x/KqU22o9D/

Very interesting chart. We see gold closing in red against the other currencies. Some indicators are bullish, some bearish. Meaning to me - consolidation.


COT Reports

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6Ado1ORh/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/1yfldhUC/

No change on Gold.

Silver has been in a flat consolidation for two weeks. This is probably why the pros are not so bullish.


US Yields
https://www.tradingview.com/x/emAqmasZ/

Yields are red, which means gold should go higher.


XAUUSD vs GDX
https://www.tradingview.com/x/K9EiUxYz/

We can see how bullish GDX was last week.


Gold vs Silver
https://www.tradingview.com/x/uvQdqpep/

Silver was heavily manipulated. It formed a 4xHCS to the upside. I think it will break out of the consolidation and go up with gold.


Volume Spread Analysis - Wyckoff patterns
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qOK6Ya7J/

It appears to be bullish. Volume is building and the futures market opened with a bullish gap last week.



Momentum
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kisNpalT/

The RSI has retreated a little but it seems to want to go up again.
My view is that gold will move with the band.

Gold is likely to remain overbought for some time before we see a major correction.