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MQP-IRLC-001 - BUY EVERY PULLBACK UNTIL 1970, AND THEN SOME

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HEADER - And really even after that, when it corrects to 1880-1900, as long as you're in for at least 75 days, it will hit 1970 at least twice before 3/20.

SUMMARY - I wish I had paid attention to my own methodology. It has been screaming this the entire time. For whatever reasons, I thought it needed to happen by 01/04 or 01/06. That's obviously not the case. Had I been more diligent, I would have caught it.

DETAILS - The call is we will hit 1970 BY 01/20. We should hit it again somewhere between 02/13-02/20. We may yet hit it a third time by 03/20 before correcting to 1820-1840 by 04/20.

NOTES 1) - ANYTHING UNDER 1865 IS AN ABSOLUTE STEAL.
a) the two weakest days before 1970 - on an absolute level, not momentum - would be this coming MONDAY OR TUESDAY
b) price may move to 1875 first before correcting to what I hope is 1845 or lower because I would be in with total conviction at that price
c) I will add evidence if I have time, but I can say this much:
d) I know I have reached the end of all I can do by myself
e) beyond this, you have to love money more than life, and that I do not

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NOTES 2) BACK TO BASICS, BUT WITH MORE CONVICTION

a) for chart above:
b) I've more or less solved for "how to define trend for wave period"
c) but before we get into that, consider the chart above (9/8 ratio) w/ total wave breakdown

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NOTES 3 - MORE DETAILING

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NOTES 4 - ONE EVEN MORE DETAILED:

a) based on 3 charts just posted for all waves down to 72-day period,
b) we should more or less get that highlight
c) this took reconfirmation from 36 different ratios of standard IRL
d) that is from 36/64 to 72/64
e) I have very strong conviction in this forecast, more so than any I've done before
f) why? because I have managed to define something that has escaped me for a very long time

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NOTES 5) HERE IS ZOOM IN ON 90 MIN BARS NOW, WITH ONLY 144-71-36 WAVES

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a) for chart above:
b) so between NOW AND 4/20...
c) the 2 best trades are:
i) long now to 01/20 or 1970 (by extension, long every pb to 1900 area until 03/05
ii) short after 04/10 down to 1830+/-10 or so area

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d) continuing... so the published chart at very top, is a less detailed version of chart posted just now (w/144-72-36)

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NOTES 6 - WE HAVE VERY SPECIFIC SETUP ON THE 1.125 DAY WAVE NOW:

a) for chart above:
b) considering positions of everything down to 36
c) this chart is from 36 all the way down to 1.125

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d) what is it saying?
e) it is saying that 1.125 blue wave here HAS TO CORRECT BEFORE TURNING UP
f) so that puts the most likely low entry at U.S. OR NY OPEN AT 1845-1855
d) so 7:30 AM ET Monday
f) the rest of of Monday isn't too bad, but prices will likely hang around 1860
g) further more, this assumes that the next high will top out 1877 before turning
h) if overnight Sunday to Monday features anything above 1877...
i) IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE THE CHECKDOWN MONDAY MORNING TO BE LOWER THAN 1851

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NOTES 7 - FAIR VALUES FOR THIS WEEK?

a) for chart above

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b) ok, SO THURSDAY 01/12 7PM ET OR SO IS CPI RELEASE
c) if we are selling the news?, then 1950, yes, 1950 should hit like 1-4 AM ET
d) if not, then we should get that 1950 by 1 AM ET FRIDAY 01/13

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f) IN THAT SITUATION, SELL 1950 AND WAIT FOR 1880-1890 OR SO

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g) it should be w/in 36 hours after the high
h) THEN BUY IT AGAIN AND WAIT FOR 1970 (should be right before/or after PPI release
i) that would be on WED 01/18 in the morning (I THINK, DOUBLE CHECK BY GOOGLING PPI CALENDAR, look for DECEMBER 2022 RELEASE, which would be in Jan 2023)

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NOTES 8) HOW HIGHS/LEVELS WERE DETERMINED

a) for chart above:

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b) continuing, that's 2day-bar, so adjusting for size....
c) light blue/purple is roughly 6000 days
d) this compression was caused by the 2011 high top and following crash

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e) here's why I say that:

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f) continuing with chart above..
g) so that's the 1862 that we closed above of
h) the only compression left, and IT WON'T GIVE ON FIRST 2 TRIES...
i) is 1950-1977 orange wave, that's roughly 1500 days

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NOTES 9) replay this one:

MQP PRESENTS - RUMORS OF A PIVOT PART 3-6, I'M TOO SLOW

a) for chart above:
b) FWIW, it's this one from a while ago that WOKE ME UP

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c) that's from 11-11-22, when I stated I'm too slow
d) I realize now, that EVEN THAT CHART WAS TOO SLOW

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f) will talk reasoning later on that...
g) but basically I have trying to find an 1820-1860 top for a while, and then thought in early december that we should move all the way up
h) MY MISTAKE WAS THINKING IT HAD TO HAPPEN BY FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY
i) when in the bigger picture....
j) 3RD WEEK OF JANUARY WILL BE FINE

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NOTES 10) will comment on this next chart when I have time:

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NOTE 11) AND THIS ONE TOO: volume analysis for 6 different tickers, including futures, etf, and 4 different tickers for spot

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NOTE 12) Final notes before market opens Sunday afternoon:
a) in note 10 with the 2 bold trend lines,
b) that the only 2 lines really in play for next 9 months
c) they determine several things
d) first, the lower one is also resistance for that 1950-1977 zone until late May
e) the higher one, which is from 2011 and 2020 highs...
f) will hold at least through 07/15 and MAYBE as late as 09/30
g) once that higher line give away...
h) we will be set to hit 3000 sometime in January 2024

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i) in note 11 with the 6 volume charts....
j) the line we are looking for is the bold blue line that is about to break...
k) through the 0 line, or the h-line
l) it represents 72-day volume trends
m) it looks perfect for 5 charts EXCEPT FOR GLD...
n) bc GLD at 195 minutes DOES NOT INCLUDE PRE AND AFTERMARKET VOLUME
o) that said, failure to break through here IS REALLY BAD...
p) that would mean reversing at the 0 or h-line ... and watch out below
q) while this is a massive underdog scenario, maybe consider insurance for that

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r) finally a note about prices from now to 01/20
s) I expect both targets of 1950 and 1970 to hit by END OF DAY ON 01/20
t) while I described last night about what I see right now,
u) IT DOES NOT HAVE TO HAPPEN THAT WAY AT ALL
v) It maybe a continuing staircase like it has been doing for quite some time
w) but the numbers do show that trend should not continue
x) thats it
y) have a great week

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NOTE 13) HOLD THE BOAT ON 3000 IN JANUARY 2024 (note 12, h):
a) I had bar size wrong for everything after JUNE 15TH, 2023
b) that is to say NO CHANGE OF PLANS FOR EVERYTHING STATED BEFORE 6/15/23
c) just solved something awesome for 8 years out but now I have to rework everything ...'
d) from June 2023 to Jan 2026, will post with time

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SUN 01.P8 UPDATE 9:42 PM ET...
1) I saw 1877 moments ago, maybe higher now
2) I don't see that holding so lets deal with Monday first...
3) first target I saw charting short term is 1884
4) this needs to hold for 1851 to be revisited
5) if 1884 breaks, then check down would be 1865 Monday
6) the problem with these estimates is that they assume recent trends leading up to this moment holds...
7) but we are approaching runaway spike-to-1950-&-instant-rugpull scenario
8) my latest estimates reconfirm that it should happen before 01/12 CPI release
9) so w/in 84 hour of me posting this...

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10) the only way to be continuously updated is to be a machine ...
11) in order to get the in-between moves right
12) it's easier in this situation to be strategically long AND tactically long any decent check down

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13. and sell all of it at 1945 to avoid shenanigans

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14. have a good night, hope this info help your bankroll this week

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NOTE 14) QUICK POINT ABOUT USING MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLINGER BANDS, AND LINEAR REGRESSIVE CURVES ALL TOGETHER:

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a) first, if we get a check down inside 12 hours, please understand IT IS A GIFT FOR THIS WEEK
b) with that said consider the chart above:

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c) this is 4-min line by line for WAVE 1.125 stated in NOTES 6 WAY ABOVE
d) it is still projected to turn down Monday morning
e) the dark gray/black wave is 1/2*1.125, and red wave is now 1/4*1.25
f) the blue extension is the most bullish scenario, in which it turn very very gradually
g) the arrow is pointing at the 1.125 day MOVING AVERAGE which also serves as the...
h) median of any 1.125 bollinger band (same for any deviation, bc the difference is only in the high and low bands)
i) here is another example:

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k) continuing with chart above:
l) so that's same chart with 1.125 shut off, and with it's 1/2X (dark gray/black), 1/4X (red), AND NOW 1/8X (BLUE) turned on, with its 3 closest bollingers turned on
m) so you have the blue bollinger that corresponds with the blue wave...
n) that's 1 standard deviation both ways
o) the other set of blue bands is 2 SD, THEN 3 SD, THEN 4SD

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p) continuing, so price acts like this...
o) in 99% of situations if blue wave does not turn then THE MEDIAN IS THE FLOOR FOR THAT PERIOD
r) in other 1%, it's a STICK-SAVE scenario where you get a candle with long tail wick or tail shadow

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s) but how do you know the odds of that blue wave turning?
t) by considering the movement of waves bigger than that and smaller than that
u) right now, ALL THE WAVES THAT ARE LONGER, FROM 1.125 TO 225 DAYS ARE PUSHING UP HARD
v) it's the smaller waves that say ODDS OF MONDAY MORNING CHECKDOWN ARE INCREASING
w) BUT IT'S THE LAST ENTRY WINDOW YOU ARE LIKELY TO GET BEFORE 1950

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x) WHY?
z) because the momentum has that 1.125 wave turning mid-day now ...
z1) and that changes things bc?
z2) bc the moving average of that same wave (and therefore all its outer bands) will all change
z3) they are likely to get HIGHER AND TIGHTER
z4) meaning quicker and few and shallower dips (or basically what rally should look like)

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z5) set out some funds for this trade tomorrow, entry is Monday morning NY OPEN and exit will be Wed9 pm to Thursday 5 am

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z6) this trade is SO MUCH BETTER THAN LAST WEEK'S

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NOTE 15) GET A PREMIUM ACCT IF YOU TRADE A LOT
a) if you're serious scalper or "daytrader"...
b) YOU NEED A PREMIUM ACCT TO HAVE ACCESS TO 5 AND 15 SECOND BARS
c) BECAUSE 1 SINGULAR MINUTE BAR CAN YOUR RUIN YOUR DAY
d) don't let it happen again, and get 5 second bars

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NOTE 16) WHAT A SHORT TERM TOP LOOKS LIKE FROM 9/8 RATIO FULL BREAKDOWN:

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a) for chart above:
b) so that's that 1.125 wave again
c) for the purposes of this example let's round it to 1600 minutes
d) so the dark gray would be 800 minutes
e) the red would be 400 minutes
f) the blue would be 200 minutes
g) and the black would be 100 minutes
h) while it's true that the 100 is moving above the 200, causing the 200 to push above the 400...
i) it's still hard to imagine that this will get "straightened out" .. meaning in order ...
k) by NY OPEN
l) so in the short term...
m) you have the 800 under the 1600 .. meaning it's trending DOWN ...
n) WHEN YOU ARE COMPARING ONLY THOSE TWO TRENDS...

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o) for chart above, same settings but 3 MIN BAR INSTEAD OF 4 MIN BAR
p) so that makes top wave turning 1200 instead of 1600
q) then 600 is under 1200
r) and 300 (red) is under 600 (dark gray)
s) BUT 150 MIN IS ABOVE 300 (blue over red)
t) THIS IS IS WHY THIS METHOD IS SUCH A GREAT SCALPING DEVICE IF YOU ARE INTO SCALPING

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u) for the record, I am not a scalper
v) any way, once black (75) pulls blue (150) under red (300)...
w) and with 300 under 600 and 1200 in order already...
x) this is what I MEAN BY 1200-MIN SEMI PERFECT DOWN
y) so WHY NOT PERFECT?

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z) because if PERFECT MEANS IN ORDER FROM DIFFERENT SIZED BARS AS WELL
z1) meaning if you view from 1000 vs 500 vs 250 vs 125 etc...
z2) they would ALSO BE IN ORDER

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z3) there's a way you can tell without switching bars and get really close
z4) we will get into that another time
z5) this is the essence of how I define trend and momentum

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9:05 AM ET PREMARKET MONDAY 1878 again
1) no 1851 checkdown
2) if you wait, you might get 1862-664....
3) it's hard to see the route there though, so it maybe a random spike down and ...
4) stick save situation

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5) overnight low only 1869....
6) but the trends here are relentlessly bullish

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9:14 AM, seriously, that's the only route
1) is intant spike down and then spike back up
2) because the window for moving down is getting smaller and smaller
3) and it it wouldn't make sense for it to go up again w/o at least going to 1862-1864
4) so because of it being 15 MIN BEFORE MARKETS OPEN, there are likely outcomes
a) instant down and instant up
b) CONTINUE UP TO 1884 or 1894 or something AND THEN check down LATER TODAY TO 1870
5) BUT EVEN IN THAT SCENARIO, THAT CHECKDOWN WOULD BE SWIFTLY REBOUGHT
6) in stick-save fashion again, because short trends keeping pushing harder and harder upwards

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1:17 PM MON
Bears window of opportunity closing before NY closes today.

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1:20 PM
Best odds of 1862 right at 3:30 PM ET, but bears need to get moving before the swing up stops the drop.

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UPDATE TUESDAY 01/10/23 9:27 AM ET PREMARKET 1877.XX
1) its still ready to go
2) but it's starting to enter late territory on the 2-hour bar basis
3) I'm a little concerned bc I only realized late yesterday that POWELL had a 9:00 am ET speech in SWEDEN
4) not sure what to make of that
5) I am completely bullish, just considering a little insurance because we should be at 1890 by now

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UPDATE 11:00 AM ET 1875.XX, IN TERMS OF THIS WEEK SPECFICALLY...
1) so my stated expectations was for 1950 AT 2AM THURDAY TO 2AM FRIDAY
2) that window is getting really tight because not enough buyers right now
3) TO HOLD THIS FORECAST, we need to see 1900-1905 IN NEXT 300 MINUTES,
4) in other words, BEFORE NEW YORK CLOSES AT 4:00 PM ET
5) if price continues to drag between 1770-1780, then expectations have to change, I am not sure how specifically
6) but I still see 1970 by 01/18, 01/20 if late
7) with that said, gold rallies usally don't end "tapered"-ly, they spike up and down
8) but as i said before, it DOESN'T HAVE TO HAPPEN THAT WAY, it's just disappoint that it doesn't

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9) so do we have a shot for 1900-1905 before day markets close?
10) a shot for sure...
11) how big that shot???
12) it is getting smaller and smaller every 10 minutes we dont spike

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11:37 AM ET 1843.45
1) on 8-min bars, if it is going to to go today...
2) it needs to go NOW ...
3) if not it's hard to deny bears scratching for 1862

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11:55 1872.xx
1) when price move down, the window also gets tighter...
2) bc it has to get back to the previous level, then check down, then move up
3) so by moving from 1880 to 1872 this morning, the spike window has tightened to
2:45 PM AND...
4) price has maybe 5-10 minutes left, to "get started"
5) if it doesn't, then I got to hedge and wait mode

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1:00 PM CRITICAL INFLECTION POINT FOR THIS WEEK
1) sellers are beginning to win regressions past 50, 52 hours
2) bulls need to SPIKE HARD HERE, or else...
3) we are going to get into long staircases again
4) this doesn't fit with intermediate-long trends at all...
5) but it doesn't have to... it just means no smooth rides

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TUESDAY NIGHT 6:05 PM
1) we are going to go in the most annoying way possible, small staircases
2) as opposed to bigger staircases we've had from 1725-1850
3) it will be the same only except smaller and less overall vol
4) but today's price action has made the path to 01/18 a continuous staircase one
5) so be patient

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6:20 PM
1) 1888-89 before midnight
2) then 1 more drop to 1874-1875
3) then 1905-in the morning

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4) scratch that, not 1905, 1897 in the morning
5) then rug pull to 1880 after NY opens,
6) then 1905 WED NIGHT

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6:35 PM ADJUSTMETN
1) 1888-1892 before midnight
2) then 1 more drop to 1878-1882
3) then 1905 in the morning
4) rug pull to 1880 after NY OPEN
5) then 1905-1910 tomorrow night
6) and it won't get prettier until or until after 01/18

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8:15 PM WOW WHAT A WASTE OF TIME.
1) we are locked from 1873 to 879
2) due to constantly twisting micro waves
3) so?
4) I don't know what that means FOR WED
5) and I'm annoyed at price action so put in a stop somewhere
6) mine is 1872.5

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9:53 REPOSITIONED, FOR 1970 BY 01/20
1) with some some insurance that expires this friday
2) this is because I have complete conviction in 1970
3) but I have to respect the possible dip to 1857-1862 for at least 36 hours
4) expectations between now and 01/20 has not changed

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8:11 AM ET WED.
1) so next should be 1900-1905, then 1880 again
2) it's going to be a lot of steps
3) but trading it will be more annoying

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