After NFP

6월 7일

Let’s update the analysis based on the new 1-hour chart for Gold Spot/USD (XAU/USD).

Key Observations:

1. Moving Averages (200 MA and 50 MA):
• 200 MA (Blue Line): The price is currently below the 200 MA, indicating a bearish long-term trend.
• 50 MA (Yellow Line): The price is also below the 50 MA, reinforcing the short-term bearish sentiment.
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI):
• The RSI is significantly below 30, indicating oversold conditions. This suggests a potential for a short-term rebound or consolidation.
3. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
• The MACD line is below the signal line, and the histogram is showing increasing negative values, indicating strong bearish momentum.
4. Bollinger Bands:
• The price is significantly below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating it is oversold in the short term. This often suggests a potential for a mean reversion back to the middle band (20 MA).
5. Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
• 0.236 (2370.02), 0.382 (2359.69), 0.5 (2351.34), 0.618 (2343.00)
• The price has recently dropped below all significant Fibonacci levels, indicating strong bearish pressure.
6. ATR (Average True Range):
• The ATR indicates an increase in volatility, suggesting that significant price swings may continue in the short term.

Comprehensive Technical Analysis:

1. Current Trend:
• The short-term trend is bearish as indicated by the price being below both the 50 MA and 200 MA.
2. Oversold Conditions:
• The RSI below 30 and the price below the lower Bollinger Band indicate that the market is currently oversold. This suggests a potential for a short-term rebound or consolidation.
3. Key Support and Resistance Levels:
• Resistance: 0.618 Fibonacci level (2343.00), 0.5 Fibonacci level (2351.34), and 0.382 Fibonacci level (2359.69).
• Support: The recent lows around 2315.96.
4. Momentum Analysis:
• The MACD indicates strong bearish momentum, but the oversold RSI suggests this might not last long without a correction.

Potential Buy and Sell Levels:

Buy Levels:

1. Support at Recent Low (2315.96):
• If the price finds support around this level and shows bullish reversal signals, consider entering a buy position.
• Buy Level: 2315.96
• Stop Loss: Below 2300.00 (just below the recent low to avoid false breaks)
• Take Profit: First target at 2343.00 (0.618 Fibonacci level) and second target at 2351.34 (0.5 Fibonacci level)
2. Lower Bollinger Band Area:
• Given the oversold conditions, consider buying near the lower Bollinger Band for a short-term rebound.
• Buy Level: Around 2320.00 (if the lower Bollinger Band is around this level)
• Stop Loss: Below 2310.00 (to account for potential volatility)
• Take Profit: Middle Bollinger Band (approximately 2350.00)

Sell Levels:

1. Resistance at 0.618 Fibonacci Level (2343.00):
• If the price rebounds to this level and faces resistance, consider entering a sell position.
• Sell Level: 2343.00
• Stop Loss: Above 2350.00 (just above the resistance level)
• Take Profit: First target at 2315.96 (recent low)
2. Middle Bollinger Band Area:
• If the price fails to sustain above the middle Bollinger Band, consider entering a sell position.
• Sell Level: Around 2350.00 (if the middle Bollinger Band is around this level)
• Stop Loss: Above 2360.00 (just above the middle Bollinger Band)
• Take Profit: First target at 2315.96 (recent low)

Summary:

• Buy Levels:
• 2315.96 (with stop loss below 2300.00 and take profit at 2343.00 and 2351.34)
• Around 2320.00 (with stop loss below 2310.00 and take profit at 2350.00)
• Sell Levels:
• 2343.00 (with stop loss above 2350.00 and take profit at 2315.96)
• Around 2350.00 (with stop loss above 2360.00 and take profit at 2315.96)