Gold Trading outside of Ascending Channel

2022년 8월 3일

Technical analysis: Price-action was on the #4th straight Daily green candle, attempting to leave behind the Daily chart’s #MA50 (currently seen Trading near #1,792.80) but the attempt so far seems rejected. New cycle spotted within my model showcases that when Gold rises above or below the #MA50 by more than #10 points, it rallies much more and was a Bullish Medium-term call on February #2, Bearish messenger on April #22. If it does this time, I will be expecting at least a #1,827.80 and #1,852.80 barrier in extension (Xau-Usd Spot numbers). Daily chart remains Bearish, however if #MA50 gets tested or invalidated on one try / hit, Technically it remains an excellent Short-term to Medium-term Buying opportunity (so Traders should pay attention to the significance of current levels as it is the crossroads regarding both Short and Medium-term. Both the DX and the Bond Yields are on (at least) Short-term Bottoms, so any break Lower should boost Gold's Prices much Higher (showcasing Buying pressure Gold is Trading under). If it wasn't for the parallel pressure on DX subsequently regarding past #2 weeks, I estimate Gold would have been below #1,678.80 Lower Low’s and #1,652.80 Medium-term Support levels by now at least.


Since many Traders of mine enquired regarding physical Gold Investment / allow me to share my elaboration on why Gold seems to be bad Long-term Investment and why I am heavily on Selling side regarding Medium-term:

(Inflation rising on Daily basis, Highest rate from #1982 Year): If Investor Bought physical Gold in #2011 - #2012 cycle, mathematically, Price of Gold should be near #2,220.80 per ounce currently (fair approximate due metals on High demand) / this Year (#2022) to follow / keep up the trend of ever-growing Inflation (however, Gold is struggling and Trading below #1,800.80 per ounce and is about to continue the decline, even on Medium-term level). If you count those #2 numbers (#1,800.80 - #2,220.80), you'll get that if you Bought physical Gold back in #2011 - #2012 cycle, you'll be down around (# -20% to # -22%) on your Investment which is not very Profitable. This simple calculation points out (what I have been mentioning since early #Q2Year's fractal), that Gold is not performing as expected (safe-haven role), yes, it soared strongly towards local peak's in the near past, however nothing significant, and that's why I am expecting values of #1,700.80 or below until end of #2022, as Investors lost confidence in Gold as an sole hedge asset against Inflation.


Fundamental analysis: Gold is now turning sideways into a consolidation that should start be alarming to Buyers if #1,792.80 isn’t re-captured. This is taking place right below the Short-term Resistance fractal and even though the Daily chart’s #MA50 is showcasing durability for now, if Price-action fails to break #1,792.80 within #3 sessions, such development alone may attract Sellers which can drag the Price-action all the way towards Lower Low’s. Hourly 4 chart remains Bullish marginally (currently isolated within healthy Ascending Channel) so a session close above #1,773.80 should Target typical sequence of #1,800.80 psychological mark or above. Note that current Buying sequence on Gold is diagonally correlated with the constant weakness on DX which currently found the Support and engaged Short-term recovery. Current sequence also depends on U.S. - China affairs regarding Taiwan problematic.


My position: As I closed all of my Buying orders with excellent Profit (riding the wave all the way from #1,762.80) I am not interested in positioning myself throughout today's session and will monitor the Price-action from sidelines.