Gold on the Brink: Major Price Shift Expected – Will It Surge?

8월 20일

Key Observations:
4HR Channel:

The price is operating within a larger ascending channel on the 4HR timeframe. This channel is guiding the overall bullish momentum seen in the price action.

Weekly Flag:
The upper trendline of the weekly flag intersects with the current price movement, suggesting that this is a significant resistance level. The price is showing a potential reversal as it interacts with this upper boundary.

15M Channels:
Ascending Channel at the top of the 4HR channel: This smaller ascending channel within the larger 4HR channel might suggest a short-term bullish continuation, but it's also positioned at a critical resistance level, indicating a possible exhaustion point.
Descending Channel: Indicates a corrective phase within the overall uptrend. The price broke out of this descending channel, which led to the recent upward momentum, aligning with the weekly trend.

Potential Scenarios:

Bullish Continuation:
If the price manages to break above the ascending channel at the top of the 4HR channel, it could signal a strong bullish continuation. The price may retest the upper trendline of the weekly flag before further advancing.

Bearish Reversal:
Given the significant resistance from the weekly flag’s upper trendline and the upper boundary of the 4HR channel, a rejection here could lead to a decline. This might trigger a correction back down towards the lower liquidity zones (LQZ) marked on the chart.

Considerations:
Liquidity Zones (LQZ):
The 15M LQZ around 2,485-2,477 is crucial. A break below these levels might confirm a bearish reversal, while a bounce could suggest accumulation before another upward push.

Mass Psychology:
As price approaches the upper resistance levels, watch for potential signs of exhaustion or overbought conditions, which could reflect a shift in trader sentiment, leading to a reversal.
Strategic Approach:

Risk vs. Reduced Risk Entry:
If looking to enter a trade, consider the possibility of a reduced risk entry on a corrective pullback to the lower 15M LQZ if the price respects these levels. Alternatively, if the price breaks above the ascending channel, a riskier entry might be taken on the breakout, with stops placed just below the channel's boundary.

Multi-Touch Confirmation:
Watch for a third touch or more on either the upper resistance or lower support levels to confirm a potential reversal or breakout, as per the rule of three discussed in your uploaded materials​​​.

This setup requires careful monitoring, especially at critical support/resistance levels, to determine the next directional move with confidence.