Comprehensive Trading Report: XAU/USD (Gold)

11월 25일

This report integrates multi-timeframe analysis, FVG interactions, detachment data, Elliott Wave analysis, and Gann methodologies into a unified trading strategy. The detailed breakdown aims to provide actionable insights for precision trading during Tokyo, London, and New York sessions.

I. Market Analysis

Multi-Timeframe Review

30-Minute Chart

• Trend: Short-term bearish.
• Key Resistance Levels:
• $2,671-$2,673: Tested bearish FVG boundary.
• Key Support Levels:
• $2,665: Lower Bollinger Band and VWAP lower boundary.
• $2,663: Bullish FVG lower boundary.
• Momentum Indicators:
• RSI ~42, favoring continued bearish pressure.
• Price well below EMA-21 and Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a detachment-driven bearish trend.
• Key Observations:
• Price is consistently rejecting the $2,670-$2,671 zone.
• Projected move toward $2,660 (Wave C target and key support).

1-Hour Chart

• Trend: Bearish.
• Key Resistance Levels:
• $2,673-$2,675: Tested bearish FVG and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement.
• Key Support Levels:
• $2,663: VWAP lower band boundary.
• $2,660: Bullish FVG boundary and Gann support.
• Momentum Indicators:
• RSI remains below 50, confirming bearish dominance.
• Key Observations:
• Price likely to test $2,660-$2,658 as Wave C completes.

4-Hour Chart

• Trend: Neutral with bearish overtones.
• Key Resistance Levels:
• $2,679-$2,682: Gann resistance and Wave 4 retracement.
• Key Support Levels:
• $2,660: Key Fibonacci and Gann support.
• $2,655: Wave 5 projected target.
• Momentum Indicators:
• EMA-21 detachment suggests bearish continuation with room for mean reversion.
• Key Observations:
• Extended bearish trend targeting $2,650 as the final Wave 5 destination.

II. Elliott Wave and Gann Analysis

Elliott Wave Perspective

1. 30-Minute Chart:
• Price appears in Wave C of an ABC correction, targeting $2,660 (Fibonacci 161.8%).
2. 1-Hour Chart:
• Sub-wave 3 within a broader Wave 3 downtrend targeting $2,655-$2,650.
3. 4-Hour Chart:
• Price within Wave 4 retracement, resistance at $2,679-$2,682.
• Wave 5 projection at $2,650.

Gann Analysis

1. Gann Fan:
• Price below 1x1 and 1x2 angles, signaling a bearish bias.
2. Gann Square of 9:
• Key Resistance: $2,673-$2,675.
• Key Support: $2,660-$2,655 (aligned with Wave 5 target).

III. Key Observations and Confluence Factors

1. FVG Interaction:
• Bearish FVG: $2,671-$2,673 (resistance).
• Bullish FVG: $2,660-$2,658 (support).
2. Detachment Analysis:
• Price consistently below EMA-21, SMA-50, VWAP, and Ichimoku Cloud, confirming bearish sentiment.
3. Session Behavior:
• Consolidation observed during the Tokyo session.
• Expect bearish continuation during London and New York sessions.

IV. Trading Plan

Primary Short Entry Setup

1. Conditions:
• Price rejects $2,673-$2,675 resistance zone.
• RSI < 50 confirms bearish momentum.
2. Entry:
• Primary: Near $2,673-$2,675 (tested bearish FVG boundary).
• Secondary: Breakdown below $2,665.
3. Targets:
• TP1: $2,665 (FVG lower boundary).
• TP2: $2,660-$2,658 (Gann 2x1 support).
• Extended TP3: $2,655-$2,650 (Wave 5 completion).
4. Stop Loss:
• Above $2,676.50 (beyond FVG boundary).
5. Risk-Reward Ratio:
• Minimum 1:2.

Countertrend Long Entry Setup

1. Conditions:
• Price holds support at $2,660-$2,658.
• Bullish divergence with RSI > 50.
2. Entry:
• Primary: $2,660-$2,658 (bullish FVG boundary).
• Secondary: Breakout above $2,665.
3. Targets:
• TP1: $2,669-$2,671 (tested resistance).
• TP2: $2,673-$2,675 (Wave B structure).
4. Stop Loss:
• Below $2,657.
5. Risk-Reward Ratio:
• Minimum 1:1.5.

V. Scalping Opportunities

5-Minute Chart

Entry Type Entry Price Stop Loss TP1 TP2 Confluence Factors
Short $2,673 $2,676.50 $2,665 $2,660 Bearish FVG, EMA detachment, RSI divergence
Long $2,660 $2,657 $2,665 $2,669 Bullish FVG, EMA alignment, Ichimoku support

15-Minute Chart

Entry Type Entry Price Stop Loss TP1 TP2 Confluence Factors
Short $2,671 $2,675 $2,665 $2,660 Gann resistance, bearish FVG, Wave C projection
Long $2,658 $2,655 $2,665 $2,671 Oversold RSI, bullish FVG, strong support alignment

VI. Breakout and Breakdown Structures

Breakout Setup

• Trigger: Price breaks above $2,675 with volume confirmation.
• Targets:
• TP1: $2,679 (VWAP and moving average alignment).
• TP2: $2,682 (Bearish FVG upper boundary).

Breakdown Setup

• Trigger: Price breaks below $2,658 with RSI < 50.
• Targets:
• TP1: $2,655 (Bullish FVG lower boundary).
• TP2: $2,650 (Wave 5 completion and Gann 2x1 support).

VII. Risk Management

1. Stop Loss Placement:
• Below key FVG boundaries or Gann levels for longs.
• Above resistance zones or FVG boundaries for shorts.
2. Take Profit Placement:
• Use Fibonacci extensions (61.8%, 161.8%) and FVG boundaries as targets.
3. Position Sizing:
• Maintain 1%-2% risk per trade.
4. Risk-Reward Ratio:
• Minimum 1:2 across all setups.

VIII. Session-Specific Expectations

London Session

• Baseline Bias: Bearish continuation.
• Key Price Movements:
• Likely rejection at $2,673-$2,675, targeting $2,660-$2,655.
• Retracement to resistance before continuation expected.

Tokyo to London Transition

• Scenario 1: Direct bearish continuation toward $2,660.
• Scenario 2: Short-term retracement to $2,673-$2,675 before resuming the downtrend.

IX. Conclusion

1. Baseline Outlook: Bearish trend dominates across all timeframes.
2. Execution Priority:
• Primary Setup: Short entries at $2,673-$2,675, targeting $2,660-$2,655.
• Countertrend Opportunities: Long entries at $2,660-$2,658 for scalping pullbacks.
3. Adjustments:
• Monitor volume and RSI for breakout or breakdown confirmations.

This comprehensive report provides a high-probability framework for trading XAU/USD with actionable entries, risk management strategies, and session-specific insights.

11월 25일

액티브 트레이드

Updated Analysis, Outlook, and Entries for XAU/USD Based on Current Scenarios
Market Analysis

Key Observations:

30-Minute Chart (Dominant Chart):
Price consolidates around $2,640, with strong resistance at $2,646 and support near $2,636.
EMA-21 at $2,642 serves as an immediate resistance, with Ichimoku baseline confirming the short-term bearish bias.
VWAP sits at $2,638, creating a mean reversion zone.
RSI at 32.42 suggests oversold conditions, yet lacks a bullish divergence.
1-Hour Chart (Swing Context):
Price is below Ichimoku cloud and SMA-50 ($2,647), suggesting medium-term bearish continuation.
Resistance aligns at $2,650 (VWAP Upper Band), while support consolidates at $2,633 (Fib 0%).
4-Hour Chart (Medium-Term Trend):
The 4H chart confirms a downward trend with consistent lower highs.
Bollinger bands expand, signaling increased volatility toward $2,628.
Daily Chart (Macro View):
Price is heavily detached from the 21-Day EMA at $2,660 and SMA-50 near $2,671, indicating a potential pullback scenario once selling pressure wanes.
Outlook

Short-Term (5M/15M):
Price is likely to test support near $2,635. A breakdown below this level could trigger selling toward $2,628.
RSI improvement above 35 will signal a short-term bounce to $2,646.
Medium-Term (30M/1H):
The bearish trend continues unless the price reclaims $2,646 decisively.
Consolidation around $2,640 could act as a base for a bounce.
Long-Term (4H/Daily):
Trend remains bearish, but oversold momentum may lead to retracements toward the SMA-50 on the daily ($2,671).
Expect price to remain range-bound between $2,628 and $2,646 before the next breakout direction.
Detachment Analysis

VWAP Levels:
VWAP is currently positioned at $2,638. Price is oscillating below VWAP, confirming a bearish trend, but nearing mean reversion potential.
Ichimoku Levels:
Price sits under the Ichimoku baseline at $2,642, which reinforces immediate resistance at this level.
The cloud edge at $2,646 aligns with bearish rejection zones.
Moving Average Detachment:
Detachment from EMA-21 (30M): $2.00 below.
Detachment from SMA-50 (1H): $3.50 below.
Trading Plan

Short Entry Setup:
Conditions:
Price rejection at $2,642-$2,646 (EMA-21 and Ichimoku resistance).
Momentum confirmation: RSI < 50 and bearish crossover in Stochastic.
Entry Levels:
Primary: $2,642 (VWAP rejections).
Secondary: $2,646 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).
Targets:
TP1: $2,635 (next Fib 0% support).
TP2: $2,628 (key 4H support).
Stop Loss (SL):
Above $2,650 (structure invalidation).
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2.
Long Entry Setup:
Conditions:
Bullish reversal near $2,635 support or breakout above $2,646 resistance.
Momentum confirmation: RSI > 50 and volume spike.
Entry Levels:
Primary: $2,635 (bounce from Fib 0%).
Secondary: Breakout above $2,646 (confirmed by volume).
Targets:
TP1: $2,646 (immediate resistance).
TP2: $2,650-$2,655 (Fib 38.2% retracement and SMA-50 alignment).
Stop Loss (SL):
Below $2,630 (structure invalidation).
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2.
Scalping Strategy

Entry Zones: Near VWAP ($2,638) or $2,635 support for scalps.
Stop Loss (Tight): $2,634 for longs, $2,641 for shorts.
Take Profit (TP): $2,642 (VWAP) for longs, $2,633 for shorts.
Setup Entry Stop Loss TP1 TP2 RRR
Short Rejection $2,642 $2,650 $2,635 $2,628 1:2
Long Pullback $2,635 $2,630 $2,642 $2,646 1:2
Conclusion

The XAU/USD market is consolidating within a bearish framework, with critical support at $2,635 and resistance at $2,646. The next session will be pivotal in determining whether price breaks lower toward $2,628 or attempts to reclaim $2,650. Stick to disciplined setups aligned with the outlined levels and manage risk effectively.