JICPT| Gold continues sideways, waiting for job data tomorrow
Hello everyone. It's been a bit wild for gold those days. Currently it's siting in the middle of a range between 1792 and 1833 for about one month.
In my opinion, the Non-farm payroll data may give us a clue of where the price might go. According to forexfactory, the forecasted data for NFD and unemployment rate is 870K and 5.7%. So there are two possible scenarios as below:
1. The data is better than forecast: It indicate economy is better than expected. Fed may hike rate sooner, so bad news for gold and possibly stock index as well, e.g. Nasdaq. The bottom of the range may be violated. I tend to have bearish setup in this situation.
2. The data is worse than forecast: It indicate economy is not so good as expected. The possibility of raise interest rate is low. Good news for bullish gold buyers. The supply zone may be penetrated. I would prefer to bullish setup in this scenario.
To make things simple, I ignored mixed results. For example, the NFP is worse and unemployment is better, or vice versa. In addition, 'Average Hourly Earnings m/m' may also impact the markets as higher earning suggested higher inflation.
If it's too hard to trade the news. I recommend you waiting for 15 or 30 mins before jumping in new trades. Or, trade unrelated stuff, like cross currency pairs, e.g. CADJPY.
Trade safe and stay safe. Give me a like if you're with me.
In my opinion, the Non-farm payroll data may give us a clue of where the price might go. According to forexfactory, the forecasted data for NFD and unemployment rate is 870K and 5.7%. So there are two possible scenarios as below:
1. The data is better than forecast: It indicate economy is better than expected. Fed may hike rate sooner, so bad news for gold and possibly stock index as well, e.g. Nasdaq. The bottom of the range may be violated. I tend to have bearish setup in this situation.
2. The data is worse than forecast: It indicate economy is not so good as expected. The possibility of raise interest rate is low. Good news for bullish gold buyers. The supply zone may be penetrated. I would prefer to bullish setup in this scenario.
To make things simple, I ignored mixed results. For example, the NFP is worse and unemployment is better, or vice versa. In addition, 'Average Hourly Earnings m/m' may also impact the markets as higher earning suggested higher inflation.
If it's too hard to trade the news. I recommend you waiting for 15 or 30 mins before jumping in new trades. Or, trade unrelated stuff, like cross currency pairs, e.g. CADJPY.
Trade safe and stay safe. Give me a like if you're with me.
코멘트:
The data is much better than expected with 943K and 5.4% for NFP and unemployment respectively. The bottom of the range got broken as previously anticipated.
plan your trade and trade your plan
