INCOMPLETE PREPWORK FOR 66 HOURS
HEADER - This is a follow up of previous work. As a precaution, first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, second rule of trading is don't forget first rule. As usual, this is meant to used with - whenever possible - continuously updating notes. As always, when price moves against stated plan and updates have not been provided, assume plan is wrong, scrap it and trade defensively.
SUMMARY - So this is titled "incomplete" bc it's not my standard work bc I am trying to give you something that is "better than nothing".
DETAILS - See previous posts for background. 66 hours means the rest of this week.
SUMMARY - So this is titled "incomplete" bc it's not my standard work bc I am trying to give you something that is "better than nothing".
DETAILS - See previous posts for background. 66 hours means the rest of this week.
코멘트:
f) that is also saying in the next 66 hours, I expect a move of 100 pts up from where we are NOW, which is 1935.32 as I type, so let's just call it 2035
코멘트:
g) I am a huge jam bc I have to help ou rapidy aging parents at a thing
h) it's a bit like baby sitting, only except old people
i) so I am not going to chime in unless I have time
j) remember, I can't see if I am not looking, so I can't warn against something I can't see
k) especially at this stage
l) but AS LONG AS PRICES STAY WITHIN THE BOXES OR VERY CLOSE TO THEM...
m) blue route is DOMINANT, DOMINANT FAVORITE VS all other extrapolations combined
h) it's a bit like baby sitting, only except old people
i) so I am not going to chime in unless I have time
j) remember, I can't see if I am not looking, so I can't warn against something I can't see
k) especially at this stage
l) but AS LONG AS PRICES STAY WITHIN THE BOXES OR VERY CLOSE TO THEM...
m) blue route is DOMINANT, DOMINANT FAVORITE VS all other extrapolations combined
코멘트:
n) and WHY?
o) so just try to recall all that I've discussed since NFP, especially in Friday's notes from:
o) so just try to recall all that I've discussed since NFP, especially in Friday's notes from:
코멘트:
코멘트:
p) there's not that many ROUTE OPTIONS FOR THIS SITUATION
q) so now that we have hit a new high by breaking 1930 3 TIMES...
r) 1960 is a foregone conclusion
s) while 2030 IS NOT A FOREGONE CONCLUSION
t) regressions say AT THIS POINT, BEARS HAVE TO PROVE THEY CAN STOP IT...
u) if you ask me.. I don't they can
w) AND I HAVE YET TO LOOK AT THE HEADLINES
x) have a good one, I'm out
q) so now that we have hit a new high by breaking 1930 3 TIMES...
r) 1960 is a foregone conclusion
s) while 2030 IS NOT A FOREGONE CONCLUSION
t) regressions say AT THIS POINT, BEARS HAVE TO PROVE THEY CAN STOP IT...
u) if you ask me.. I don't they can
w) AND I HAVE YET TO LOOK AT THE HEADLINES
x) have a good one, I'm out
코멘트:
11:56 PM ET 10/17
a) typo above in u) ... if you ask me... I don't "think" they can
b) so my analysis and instincts are REALLY BULLISH RIGHT NOW
c) I've already said how much little time I have this week for this
d) so let's do this:
e) I will chime in every couple of hours (if I'm not sleeping) and say "on target" or "suspicious"
f) as long as we are "on target" your should buy sell offs and expect 2035
g) that's about all I can do
h) if I post "suspicous AF", that means there's a reversal somewhere but I can't see what it should look like (or have time to post what it looks like)
i) so be cautious AF... that's the plan
a) typo above in u) ... if you ask me... I don't "think" they can
b) so my analysis and instincts are REALLY BULLISH RIGHT NOW
c) I've already said how much little time I have this week for this
d) so let's do this:
e) I will chime in every couple of hours (if I'm not sleeping) and say "on target" or "suspicious"
f) as long as we are "on target" your should buy sell offs and expect 2035
g) that's about all I can do
h) if I post "suspicous AF", that means there's a reversal somewhere but I can't see what it should look like (or have time to post what it looks like)
i) so be cautious AF... that's the plan
코멘트:
10/18 12:34 AM ET - "on target"
코멘트:
10/18 6:38 AM ET - "on target" (for 2035, but that DOES NOT mean a straight line there)
코멘트:
10/118 6:42 AM ET - this goes w/o saying bc we're 1944.xx as I type, but odds of hitting 1960-1980 today are very high and high respectively
코멘트:
10/18 7:32 AM ET - "on target" (if bulls are legit back, and it seems like they are, ceiling for this run is 2050-2060 and extends into this coming Sunday/Monday)
코멘트:
10/18 7:37 AM ET - "on target" but 1960 in AM ET, 1980 IN PM ET, tonight, not afternoon
코멘트:
>> here's resistance that price wants
코멘트:
>> within that the channels you want to look at
코멘트:
10/18 7:48 AM ET - if bears intend to "nip it at the bud", they have put in the work here, and absolutely crucial
a) bc 1960 is REALLY HARD STOP today
b) but the REACTION AT 1960 area is a BIG DEAL
c) bulls want NO REACTION... as in just go flat betwen 1960-1970 for hours
d) bears want rugpull AND HOLD, bc if it's rugpull-sticksave IT DOESN'T MATTER
a) bc 1960 is REALLY HARD STOP today
b) but the REACTION AT 1960 area is a BIG DEAL
c) bulls want NO REACTION... as in just go flat betwen 1960-1970 for hours
d) bears want rugpull AND HOLD, bc if it's rugpull-sticksave IT DOESN'T MATTER
코멘트:
Typo at a) 1960 .. HARD TO STOP.. NOT HARD STOP
코멘트:
10/1 9:27 AM ET "on track"
코멘트:
... or "on target", same difference..
코멘트:
10/18 9:39 AM ET, 1959.xx LIKE I SAID EARLIER, 1960 IS A FOREGONE CONCLUSION --
IF THESE "PREPWORK" POSTS MAKE YOU REAL MONEY:
a) if you've read my work since 9/12 when I started doing it this "around the clock" continuous updating style
b) I now call them "PREPWORK FOR" # OF HOURS...
c) then I don't need to convince you, this work is legit AND REALLY EXTREMELY USEFUL IN HELPING YOU WIN CONSISTENTLY
d) otherwise, for new readers
e) if this work helps you out a lot
f) please spread my work to someone you know
g) word of mouth is about the only thing that matters
h) I have 3 maybe 5 max months left to make something happen with this, career-wise
f) and if I can't get real interest in it, it's a wrap for this project for good
h) this is really the last "last time"
i) if you don't know anyone that's into it, please hit like or "boost" button
j) and that's a wrap for this morning
IF THESE "PREPWORK" POSTS MAKE YOU REAL MONEY:
a) if you've read my work since 9/12 when I started doing it this "around the clock" continuous updating style
b) I now call them "PREPWORK FOR" # OF HOURS...
c) then I don't need to convince you, this work is legit AND REALLY EXTREMELY USEFUL IN HELPING YOU WIN CONSISTENTLY
d) otherwise, for new readers
e) if this work helps you out a lot
f) please spread my work to someone you know
g) word of mouth is about the only thing that matters
h) I have 3 maybe 5 max months left to make something happen with this, career-wise
f) and if I can't get real interest in it, it's a wrap for this project for good
h) this is really the last "last time"
i) if you don't know anyone that's into it, please hit like or "boost" button
j) and that's a wrap for this morning
코멘트:
9:42 AM ET... NOW COMES THE REACTION
a) if bears have ANY FIGHT LEFT
b) they put it in this area around 1960
c) it doesn't have to be today, or tomorrow
d) it can 2-3 weeks
e) BUT THEY HAVE TO STOP IT GOING HIGHER HERE
f) bc next move in the PM is 1980 (and first reaction should be strong rugpull but it doesn't matter bc check down is still 1960 2 pts higher than 1958.xx as I type)
a) if bears have ANY FIGHT LEFT
b) they put it in this area around 1960
c) it doesn't have to be today, or tomorrow
d) it can 2-3 weeks
e) BUT THEY HAVE TO STOP IT GOING HIGHER HERE
f) bc next move in the PM is 1980 (and first reaction should be strong rugpull but it doesn't matter bc check down is still 1960 2 pts higher than 1958.xx as I type)
코멘트:
g) if price pushes for 1967-168 NOW.... it is 50% over for bears, maybe 60%
h) in the sense that WHATEVER ODDS THEY MAY HAVE to stop 2030...
i) those odds are now only 40%-50%
j) so if it was 1 in 3, now it's less than 1 in 6
h) in the sense that WHATEVER ODDS THEY MAY HAVE to stop 2030...
i) those odds are now only 40%-50%
j) so if it was 1 in 3, now it's less than 1 in 6
코멘트:
k) THAT IS IF bulls hit 1967-68
l) and I saw 1962.xx a minute ago
l) and I saw 1962.xx a minute ago
코멘트:
m) and a minute later 1957.xx, nobody said it was going to be easy
코멘트:
10/18 1958.XX obviously "on target"...
a) that means for 2030
b) again THAT DOES NOT MEAN STRAIGHT LINE
c) that means buy dips and expect to win
d) use straight lines and 5-sec bars for risk management
e) it costs you premium but if you are serious about trading, it's really IMPOSSIBLE to
f) ... make it worth your time unless you you have at least 15-sec bars size-wise
a) that means for 2030
b) again THAT DOES NOT MEAN STRAIGHT LINE
c) that means buy dips and expect to win
d) use straight lines and 5-sec bars for risk management
e) it costs you premium but if you are serious about trading, it's really IMPOSSIBLE to
f) ... make it worth your time unless you you have at least 15-sec bars size-wise
코멘트:
g) HERE IS A QUICK EXAMPLE, THIS IS JUST HOW I DO IT.... YOU DON'T HAVE TO DO IT THIS WAY...
코멘트:
a) so my PREPWORK & NOTES are designed to help choose which way is playing that day or that session
b) but the actual trading goes like this:
c) let's say my entry is 1848, I make a line at the bottom
d) EVERY TIME THE SLOPE OR THE CURVE OF PRICE INCREASE ... I MAKE NEW LINE
e) now comes the hard part.. bc this is simply about habit and once you do this you can win
f) WHEN IT BREAKS THE NEWEST LINE... GET OUT
g) EVERY
h) SINGLE
i) TIME
j) PERIOD
k) FULL STOP
b) but the actual trading goes like this:
c) let's say my entry is 1848, I make a line at the bottom
d) EVERY TIME THE SLOPE OR THE CURVE OF PRICE INCREASE ... I MAKE NEW LINE
e) now comes the hard part.. bc this is simply about habit and once you do this you can win
f) WHEN IT BREAKS THE NEWEST LINE... GET OUT
g) EVERY
h) SINGLE
i) TIME
j) PERIOD
k) FULL STOP
코멘트:
l) in a way, it's like scalping or SUPER SCALPING
코멘트:
m) so now new line (bcI think 1954-ish holds strong here)
코멘트:
n) this is why I do sometimes and sometimes not like IDC/ICE ticker when trading
o) for day trading you us FXOPEN or FXCM XAUUSD ticker
o) for day trading you us FXOPEN or FXCM XAUUSD ticker
코멘트:
p) why? bc IDC/ICE ticker shows you a wide bid/ask as opposed to a more defined open/close bar:
코멘트:
q) if gets near 1954 I would buy again and again for a third time BUT NOT A 4TH HERE...
코멘트:
r) but the gist is that 1960 is important for bears AND ESPECIALLY TODAY bc 1980 is available right now AND ONLY RIGHT NOW
s) if bears hold 1962 today... it might take a while before another setup comes for 1980
t) it could be 3 hours, 3 days, or 3 weeks who knows?
u) we do know for a fact that 1980 IS VERY AVAILABLE THIS PM if early and WED EARLY AM if late
s) if bears hold 1962 today... it might take a while before another setup comes for 1980
t) it could be 3 hours, 3 days, or 3 weeks who knows?
u) we do know for a fact that 1980 IS VERY AVAILABLE THIS PM if early and WED EARLY AM if late
코멘트:
v) and at 10:19 AM ET still on "target" and I'm out until late tonight
코멘트:
w) a quickie on THINKING BOTH DIRECTIONS (bc you HAVE TO)
y) again I EXPOUNDED OVER AND OVER AND OVER WHY I DON'T BELIEVE IN BULL THESIS here:
z) and right up until yesterday it was still BASE CASE here:
1) but I warned you in the last post (chart right above here)
2) blue route WAS FIRST BC THAT WAS WHAT MOMENTUM AND PRICE ACTION SAID
3) in the end ONLY PRICE ACTION MATTERS bc that is what determines EVERYTHING
4) so keep an "absolutely OPEN mind" you don't have to be right on thesis...
5) YOU HAVE TO BE RIGHT ON WINNING YOUR TRADE, BC THAT'S MONEY
y) again I EXPOUNDED OVER AND OVER AND OVER WHY I DON'T BELIEVE IN BULL THESIS here:
2) blue route WAS FIRST BC THAT WAS WHAT MOMENTUM AND PRICE ACTION SAID
3) in the end ONLY PRICE ACTION MATTERS bc that is what determines EVERYTHING
4) so keep an "absolutely OPEN mind" you don't have to be right on thesis...
5) YOU HAVE TO BE RIGHT ON WINNING YOUR TRADE, BC THAT'S MONEY
코멘트:
10:51 AM I bought MASSIVELY AT 1944.XX
코멘트:
A) and existed at 1948
B) now rinse and repeat
C) do bears have a route here.. but they an formulate one
D) but until they do LONG FOR THE NEXT 16 HOURS OR 1980
B) now rinse and repeat
C) do bears have a route here.. but they an formulate one
D) but until they do LONG FOR THE NEXT 16 HOURS OR 1980
코멘트:
E) sorry for all typos, I do this sometimes while driving... so I need to not do that..
코멘트:
F) bears don't have a route but they can formulate one ... it takes time to build a route
G) for this setup, they are massive dogs now so it's long TO A SECOND 1960 TOP BEFORE WE TALK LOWER
H)
G) for this setup, they are massive dogs now so it's long TO A SECOND 1960 TOP BEFORE WE TALK LOWER
H)
코멘트:
H) just rinse and repeat
코멘트:
I) hold on a sec here
코멘트:
코멘트:
> if bears push lower for that line
> STRONG BUY HERE 1937 for A V RESPONSE
> meaning 30 sec bars say bears are in a v shaped trap setup
> if they move to 1937-ish it's a STRONG
> STRONG BUY HERE 1937 for A V RESPONSE
> meaning 30 sec bars say bears are in a v shaped trap setup
> if they move to 1937-ish it's a STRONG
코멘트:
12:37 PM ET... 1949.XX couldn't finish the thought so:
코멘트:
1) it didn't hit 1937, bid hit 1938.xx
2) we got a V response but WEAK V, so proceed IS LATE FOR 2 AND 4 MINS
3) so on immediate time frame of next 60 to 180 min we have WEAKNESS
2) we got a V response but WEAK V, so proceed IS LATE FOR 2 AND 4 MINS
3) so on immediate time frame of next 60 to 180 min we have WEAKNESS
코멘트:
4. Typo price not proceed, price is late
코멘트:
5) so bears have formulates a route, bc it's following bear path
6) but it SHOULDNT BE THAT EASY FOR BEARS
6) but it SHOULDNT BE THAT EASY FOR BEARS
코멘트:
7) THIS IS BASE CASE NOW
8) BC OF THE IMPORTANCE OR THIS ARE FOR BOTH BULLS AND BEARS...
9) this is CONDITIONAL FAVORITE FOR NEXT 12 TO 14 HOURS
9) this is CONDITIONAL FAVORITE FOR NEXT 12 TO 14 HOURS
코멘트:
10) any weakness off this path should be viewed as SUSPICIOUS AF
코멘트:
11) in this chart IDC ticker XAUUSD does not skip an hour 17:00 to 18:00 (but it will, it just doesnt show it)
12) so 18:00 is actually 19:00 or 7 PM I have at 1974 average for that time
12) so 18:00 is actually 19:00 or 7 PM I have at 1974 average for that time
코멘트:
13) if it spends too much time in this spot here:
14) THAT'S SUSPICIOUS AF
코멘트:
15) bc it means POSSIBLE (but NOT LIKELY) breakdown like this:
코멘트:
16) but out base case IS ALSO BACKED BY MOMENTUM... so it SHOULD STILL FIND ANOTHER WAY UP
코멘트:
17) we just made it to 1952-53 as I type this from my phone
18) so our base case is STRONG AF
18) so our base case is STRONG AF
코멘트:
19) ALSO WATCH FOR THIS ROUTE (BC ITS A POPULAR ONE)
코멘트:
20) for that deep blue route it will move to 1937-42 area 2 more times
21) it is a buy for SECOND AND THIRD TIME BUT NOT 4TH
21) it is a buy for SECOND AND THIRD TIME BUT NOT 4TH
코멘트:
22) 1954.xx obviously still "on target", it looks like it's going with base case NOW
23) but when viewed from 2 min bars and smaller its HARD AF TO SAY...
23) but when viewed from 2 min bars and smaller its HARD AF TO SAY...
코멘트:
24) a bit earlier where I had that typo that said "proceed IS LATE FOR 2 MIN AND 4 MIN...", I left out BAR
25) meaning for 2 and 4 MIN BARS, price is LATE
26) put up 4H bar and doesn't even matter...
27) gotta run again
25) meaning for 2 and 4 MIN BARS, price is LATE
26) put up 4H bar and doesn't even matter...
27) gotta run again
코멘트:
28) who said it was a V SETUP? HUH? here:
29) not PERFECT V but V ENOUGH, WE ARE SURE ABOUT THAT
코멘트:
30) if I helped you make $ today, help me help you MORE
31) by word of mouth introducing my work to other traders
32) I'm good enough now to be good in other markets to..
33) but if gold goes to 1980 tonight and I THINK IT WILL ...
34) gold is the market you want to be in for at least 27 months
31) by word of mouth introducing my work to other traders
32) I'm good enough now to be good in other markets to..
33) but if gold goes to 1980 tonight and I THINK IT WILL ...
34) gold is the market you want to be in for at least 27 months
코멘트:
3) like I said, watch for this route:
코멘트:
35) the only way to call it all the time is watching 15 sec bars all the time
36) it is unreal what it allows you to call
37) but this is a hobby not yet a job
36) it is unreal what it allows you to call
37) but this is a hobby not yet a job
코멘트:
38) so at 3:34 PM ET, now this:
39) so now just one "step" lower not two, but it needs a bit lower like 1942 give or take
코멘트:
40) but no reason to be suspicious YET
코멘트:
41) THERE IS A REASON TO BE SUSPICIOUS IF:
코멘트:
a) for chart above: here is the bear route that is "formulating" or taking shape or shaping up
b) the bull route DOES NOT MIND HITTING 1938 AGAIN BUT NEEDS TO MOVE UP AHEAD OF THE CIRCLE
c) so at 7:00 PM price MUST BE ABOVE 1953 and...
d) must move CONSISTENTLY UP SO THAT PRICE IS 1970 ... AND
e) moving towards 1980 BEFORE MIDNIGHT
f) so any ANY weakness under 1954 AFTER 7PM SHOULD BE CONSIDERED SUSPCIOUS AF
b) the bull route DOES NOT MIND HITTING 1938 AGAIN BUT NEEDS TO MOVE UP AHEAD OF THE CIRCLE
c) so at 7:00 PM price MUST BE ABOVE 1953 and...
d) must move CONSISTENTLY UP SO THAT PRICE IS 1970 ... AND
e) moving towards 1980 BEFORE MIDNIGHT
f) so any ANY weakness under 1954 AFTER 7PM SHOULD BE CONSIDERED SUSPCIOUS AF
코멘트:
g) again SUSPICIOUS AF... and should be considered a sign for 1910 TOMORROW
h) like this:
h) like this:
코멘트:
코멘트:
i) and that means 1910 by 8AM TOMORROW IF ON TIME 12PM IF LATE
코멘트:
4:46 PM ET... HERE, A BIT MORE CLARITY:
1) first relay chart at top
1) first relay chart at top
코멘트:
2) here is SAME BOXES W/ TWO major extrapolations right now
코멘트:
3) in chart above:
a) so we're done w/ first box so I deleted it
b) right now we are UNDER SECOND BOX
c) the bull route has us missing most of the third box BUT CLIPPING THE CORNER
d) when it moves for 1980-2000
e) the bear route has us moving to 1915-ish and double topping mid night tomorrow
f) where that red path marker is BULL / BEAR battle line
g) earlier, I was just being too careful when I said "after 7:00 PM can't be under 1953-54
h) it is: can't be under 1950 after 11 PM
i) that's the "SUSPICIOUS AF" moment
a) so we're done w/ first box so I deleted it
b) right now we are UNDER SECOND BOX
c) the bull route has us missing most of the third box BUT CLIPPING THE CORNER
d) when it moves for 1980-2000
e) the bear route has us moving to 1915-ish and double topping mid night tomorrow
f) where that red path marker is BULL / BEAR battle line
g) earlier, I was just being too careful when I said "after 7:00 PM can't be under 1953-54
h) it is: can't be under 1950 after 11 PM
i) that's the "SUSPICIOUS AF" moment
코멘트:
j) 4:58 PM ET, I still se bear route as DOMINANT... I'm just being careful
코멘트:
k) so basically move for the line, all the way up ...
코멘트:
코멘트:
l) then once it gets to 1995+, IT DROPS 50 TOMORROW
m) I have it at 1995 around 4 AM ET TOMORROW
n) BUT if gets to 1980 before midnight, THEN I DON'T KNOW, I have see what the waves look like
m) I have it at 1995 around 4 AM ET TOMORROW
n) BUT if gets to 1980 before midnight, THEN I DON'T KNOW, I have see what the waves look like
코멘트:
o) in theory if the bear hilight plays, the next steps are:
코멘트:
p) how can that be possible if talking closing the week 2030
q) I said last week closing under 1938 is bearish
r) NOT BREAKING ABOVE 1962 TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY LIKE 1-2 AM...
s) THAT IS STILL THE SAME THING
w) while it is true that bears HAVE TO PROVE THEY CAN STOP 1980 TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
x) bulls also HAVE TO PROVE THEY CLOSE THIS WEEK 2035
y) sure are there middle grounds ... but we don't deal with them until they exist
q) I said last week closing under 1938 is bearish
r) NOT BREAKING ABOVE 1962 TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY LIKE 1-2 AM...
s) THAT IS STILL THE SAME THING
w) while it is true that bears HAVE TO PROVE THEY CAN STOP 1980 TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
x) bulls also HAVE TO PROVE THEY CLOSE THIS WEEK 2035
y) sure are there middle grounds ... but we don't deal with them until they exist
코멘트:
z) I mean it's hard to forecast things like this:
코멘트:
5:55 PM ET... still "on target" to close this week 2035
a) but bears have a LEGIT WINDOW TO GO FOR 1915 w/in 12 hours
b) it's not ridiculous bc IT'S OPEN FOR CONTENTION
c) but odds for next 9 hours as of RIGHT NOW (AND THIS CHANGES HOUR TO HOUR)...
d) is bulls 8-2 or 7-3
a) but bears have a LEGIT WINDOW TO GO FOR 1915 w/in 12 hours
b) it's not ridiculous bc IT'S OPEN FOR CONTENTION
c) but odds for next 9 hours as of RIGHT NOW (AND THIS CHANGES HOUR TO HOUR)...
d) is bulls 8-2 or 7-3
코멘트:
e) so why worry about it?
f) bc odds are REAL but IN CONSTANT FLUX
g) so if we move south 10 pts and hang at 1936 for only 2 hours.. which would only take 3 hours to do considering normal volatility
h) then bulls's odds go to 4:6 or 3:7
f) bc odds are REAL but IN CONSTANT FLUX
g) so if we move south 10 pts and hang at 1936 for only 2 hours.. which would only take 3 hours to do considering normal volatility
h) then bulls's odds go to 4:6 or 3:7
코멘트:
6:02 PM ET 1947.XX momentum says next move is 1941... soon
코멘트:
a) when?
b) by 7:30 PM ET
c) but as early as 6:50 or 7:00
b) by 7:30 PM ET
c) but as early as 6:50 or 7:00
코멘트:
d) but it's also CONDITIONAL...
e) if bulls move to 1950 at 7:00
f) and HOLD IT OR GO TO 1952 by 7:30
g) then that SHUT THE DOOR ON BEARS' WINDOW
e) if bulls move to 1950 at 7:00
f) and HOLD IT OR GO TO 1952 by 7:30
g) then that SHUT THE DOOR ON BEARS' WINDOW
코멘트:
h) 6:08 PM ET 1949.62... already turning very bullish
i) why VERY?
j) BC it's a VERY BEARISH WINDOW that can lead to 1915 tomorrow
i) why VERY?
j) BC it's a VERY BEARISH WINDOW that can lead to 1915 tomorrow
코멘트:
k) and THERE ARE NO BEARS SHOWING UP...
코멘트:
l) it's hard in this situation to get another setup so bearish... 1950.40 already
코멘트:
m) I finally understand how to explain it now, like this:
코멘트:
a) for chart above's really cool explanation...
b) SO... we know all the intermediate trends are bullish now (bc we're 1950 from 1810)
c) so the blue route is bulls's route, the orange route is bears' route
d) but the odds are 8-2 or 7-3 at the worst ... (favoring bulls)
e) THERE ARE 3 BLACK ROUTES (I can make 10 or 20, but they would all fit in that zone)
f) so bears missed the first one ...
g) there is only so much time left (if price stays flat) before bearish possibilities for next 3 HOURS RUN OUT
h) then it's SUPER BULL ZONE AGAIN, where bulls would be 8-2 or 9-1 OR BETTER
b) SO... we know all the intermediate trends are bullish now (bc we're 1950 from 1810)
c) so the blue route is bulls's route, the orange route is bears' route
d) but the odds are 8-2 or 7-3 at the worst ... (favoring bulls)
e) THERE ARE 3 BLACK ROUTES (I can make 10 or 20, but they would all fit in that zone)
f) so bears missed the first one ...
g) there is only so much time left (if price stays flat) before bearish possibilities for next 3 HOURS RUN OUT
h) then it's SUPER BULL ZONE AGAIN, where bulls would be 8-2 or 9-1 OR BETTER
코멘트:
i) why do BEARS'S WINDOW run out in 3 hours?
코멘트:
j) the black curve represents the regression created by the selling since 1962
k) and it turns at the 21:00 marker
l) another of saying that is:
k) and it turns at the 21:00 marker
l) another of saying that is:
코멘트:
코멘트:
1) so in chart above all the diagonals below are bull trend
2) so the sellers SINCE 1962 have reached equilibrium at 1950
3) there HAVE TO BE... AGAIN, HAVE TO BE
4) NEW SELLERS (in the frame of this chart) that switch from the bull side to sell side
5) in order to keep this trend going... by definition right?
6) if there are not, PRICE HAS TO GO UP BC IT'S NOT DOING THIS:
2) so the sellers SINCE 1962 have reached equilibrium at 1950
3) there HAVE TO BE... AGAIN, HAVE TO BE
4) NEW SELLERS (in the frame of this chart) that switch from the bull side to sell side
5) in order to keep this trend going... by definition right?
6) if there are not, PRICE HAS TO GO UP BC IT'S NOT DOING THIS:
코멘트:
코멘트:
7) if it went dead at 1950 and stayed there for 24 hours that means
8) either the market is closed
9) or no one IS BUYING OR SELLING
8) either the market is closed
9) or no one IS BUYING OR SELLING
코멘트:
10/18 7:38 AM "on target"
코멘트:
a) it's not over yet, bc bears' window hasn't closed
b) however... things should go like this if ALL TRENDS HOLD
b) however... things should go like this if ALL TRENDS HOLD
코멘트:
c) that's the 1-min bar extrapolation of bull route and yes, it's been vetted
d) BUT IT'S MIN BAR, IT CAN CHANGE IN 20 MIN
e) will post this chart again if it holds
f) it's almost stupid to try
d) BUT IT'S MIN BAR, IT CAN CHANGE IN 20 MIN
e) will post this chart again if it holds
f) it's almost stupid to try
코멘트:
g) 7:49 PM HOLD ON... I LABELD THE FIRST TARGET WRONG: IT'S 8:25 NOT 8:00 HERE
코멘트:
h) you can check the last chart it was 8:25 too, I just typed in 8:00 by accident
코멘트:
i) 8:32 PM ET, still only 1952.63 but tagged 1953.xx before 8:25
j) i just changed the 1:00 to 1:15, but bulls have been disappointing
j) i just changed the 1:00 to 1:15, but bulls have been disappointing
코멘트:
코멘트:
8:39 PM ET ... ICE/IDC XAU TICKER already hit 1949.32 a min ago... way early
a) so we missed first bull target
b) and what's worse is EARLY FOR BEARISH TARGET...
c) that's FIRST SIGN OF SUSPICIOUS PRICE ACTION
d) even dropped a bit lower as I typed this
a) so we missed first bull target
b) and what's worse is EARLY FOR BEARISH TARGET...
c) that's FIRST SIGN OF SUSPICIOUS PRICE ACTION
d) even dropped a bit lower as I typed this
코멘트:
8:42 PM SO WE HAVE THIS NOW, EVEN A BIT LOWER:
코멘트:
... I'm trying to find a route up but I don't see it yet
코멘트:
8:51 we're running out of options
a) replay chart at top
b) it's WAY UNDER the the 3rd box...
c) so there's only so many routes
d) and keeps resorting to parabolic curves which odds are never great
e) i mean these:
a) replay chart at top
b) it's WAY UNDER the the 3rd box...
c) so there's only so many routes
d) and keeps resorting to parabolic curves which odds are never great
e) i mean these:
코멘트:
코멘트:
f) why never great? bc they tend to go w/ mirror image inverse ...
코멘트:
g) but from 8 min bar, everything looks fine?
코멘트:
h) so re-examination says it will just "catch up to hilight "parabolically"
코멘트:
9:04 PM SO NOW THIS:
코멘트:
1) for chart above, that is the curve right now
2) why do I hate them?
3) bc they always have an inverse...
4) I've done this before and been accused of misleading people when I dont update
5) bc I went the other way and didn't say anything
6) well I'm saying it now...
7) odds of us making bull are still 7-3 but dropping
8) but be aware that failing means down and hard
2) why do I hate them?
3) bc they always have an inverse...
4) I've done this before and been accused of misleading people when I dont update
5) bc I went the other way and didn't say anything
6) well I'm saying it now...
7) odds of us making bull are still 7-3 but dropping
8) but be aware that failing means down and hard
코멘트:
9) the bull curve looks even uglier now at 9:18 PM ET... sigh but still better than 6:4
10) not 7:3 any more
10) not 7:3 any more
코멘트:
코멘트:
9:44 PM ET ...dead heat on 4 and 8 min bars
코멘트:
1) 10 sets reading 5:5
2) but 15 min bars still reading 5:4:1
2) but 15 min bars still reading 5:4:1
코멘트:
9:48 PM ET I MASSIVELY MASSIVELY LONG WITH A DEAD STOP AT 1945.5
코멘트:
9:57 PM ET I HAVE A 300 MIN MAX BULL SIGNAL WORTH 33 PTS THAT JUST WENT OFF. THATS 1948 TO 1081
코멘트:
1981 NOT 1081.
코멘트:
>> That's 300 minutes for 33 pts, MAX BULL CURVE. So basically 3 AM ET.
코멘트:
>> It's 10:01, 1948.32 FXOPEN OR FXCM XAUUSD TICKER.
>> My entry was 1847.9 on 8:47 PM ET.
>> My entry was 1847.9 on 8:47 PM ET.
코멘트:
9:08 PM ET THIS IS TAKING LONG AND GETTING SUSPICIOUS. RAISE STOP TO 1946.5
코멘트:
>> AGAIN FXOPEN OR FXCM TICKER.
코멘트:
Typo at 9:08, I MEANT 10:08 PM.
10:13 PM ET RAISE STOP AGAIN 1947.25.
10:13 PM ET RAISE STOP AGAIN 1947.25.
코멘트:
10:20 RAISE AGAIN 1948.25. HIGHER THAN ENTRY. HERE ARE STOP LINE LINES NOW.
코멘트:
코멘트:
10:24 PM ET 1949.16 Here is my actual stop vs the "x".
코멘트:
a) in chart above ignore stuff on left
b) I forgot to choose screen
b) I forgot to choose screen
코멘트:
c) RAISE STOP AGAIN
코멘트:
d) so my stop is 1948.5 and it's 1948.66 as I type
코멘트:
e) meaning any second now I'm out
코멘트:
f) and 10:31 PM ET, I'm out at 1948.44
코멘트:
g) if it moves up soon (like minutes I will try again)
코멘트:
h) not yet:
코멘트:
i) 9:38 PM ET ENTRY SHORT 1948.28, AGAIN SHORT NOT LONG
j) STOP 1948.5
j) STOP 1948.5
코멘트:
k) our 3 lines you need to know for this SHORT if you are shorting:
코멘트:
l) I got hit already at 1948.3 (I dropped it)
코멘트:
코멘트:
>> NOW LONG AGAIN 1948.67
코멘트:
>> I AM ONLY POSTING WHAT I AM DOING
>> THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION.
>> THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION.
코멘트:
>> I MEAN FOR THIS NEW LONG.
코멘트:
>> BC I DONT HAVE EVIDENCE
>> ITS JUST MY INSTINCT SAYING GO LONG HERE SO I DID
>> ITS JUST MY INSTINCT SAYING GO LONG HERE SO I DID
코멘트:
>> 10:47 PM ET 1949.16, MY STOP IS 1948.75
>> WHY SO TIGHT? BC OF THE SITUATION. THERE'S HUGE 1 WAY VALUE.
>> I WANT TO CATCH IT.
>> BUT I DON'T WANT TO STRADDLE OPTIONS.
>> AND I DON'T WANT TO PAY A HUGE PRICE FOR BEING WRONG.
>> WHY SO TIGHT? BC OF THE SITUATION. THERE'S HUGE 1 WAY VALUE.
>> I WANT TO CATCH IT.
>> BUT I DON'T WANT TO STRADDLE OPTIONS.
>> AND I DON'T WANT TO PAY A HUGE PRICE FOR BEING WRONG.
코멘트:
>> GOT HIT AGAIN. 1948.73.
코멘트:
10:58 PM ET, ONE MORE LONG 1949.25
코멘트:
10:59, MY STOP IS 1948.75
코멘트:
11:01 PM ET 1950.02 (FX OPEN TICKER) I THINK WE NAILED IT THIS TIME...
코멘트:
11:03 PM ET 1950.60 HERE'S THE 4 LINES I HAVE:
코멘트:
11:05 PM ET I TAKE AWAY 2 OF THEM ADD THESE 2:
코멘트:
11:10 PM SPOKE TO SOON? OK SO...
코멘트:
코멘트:
11:16 PM STOPPED OUT AGAIN 1949.25. MY 300 MIN SIGNAL FLIPPED 4 TIMES NOW.
a) so there's huge value here ONE WAY
b) but you have to be diligent here with your entries
c) and discipline your stops
d) my max vol readings are 30 PTS BOTH WAYS...
e) in theory, if you stay up and wait, you should catch it
a) so there's huge value here ONE WAY
b) but you have to be diligent here with your entries
c) and discipline your stops
d) my max vol readings are 30 PTS BOTH WAYS...
e) in theory, if you stay up and wait, you should catch it
코멘트:
11:29 PM ET. WED NIGHT WRAP UP. 1947.xx.
a) now it's reading 5:5 even on 22-min bars
b) so THERE IS GOING TO BE A 30-35 pt move from 1948
c) it should be done by noon tomorrow, 1 PM if late
d) I thought it would break by now, but it hasn't
e) so deadline for first break is 3 AM ET
f) there should be 1 retest, so that would be 5 AM ET...
a) now it's reading 5:5 even on 22-min bars
b) so THERE IS GOING TO BE A 30-35 pt move from 1948
c) it should be done by noon tomorrow, 1 PM if late
d) I thought it would break by now, but it hasn't
e) so deadline for first break is 3 AM ET
f) there should be 1 retest, so that would be 5 AM ET...
코멘트:
11:49 PM I'M DONE TONIGHT.
a) IF you are staying up
b) either 1981 or 1915 is coming tomorrow, I think maybe 14 hours from now at the most
c) which way? no IDEA... ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA, I looked and looked and looked
d) the problem is the time for the move was 12 hours 2 hours ago, so it should be 10 now... but it's 14 hours now...
e) that's frustrating AF I know..
f) but be diligent here with your entries and stops, this is a a pretty good signal
g) if you don't want to keep "scalping" for the good entry, there is the reversal danger when it pretends one way and do the other
h) so the late entry is really the move here, if you have to do it late, BE TIGHT AF...
i) be tight either way anyway
a) IF you are staying up
b) either 1981 or 1915 is coming tomorrow, I think maybe 14 hours from now at the most
c) which way? no IDEA... ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA, I looked and looked and looked
d) the problem is the time for the move was 12 hours 2 hours ago, so it should be 10 now... but it's 14 hours now...
e) that's frustrating AF I know..
f) but be diligent here with your entries and stops, this is a a pretty good signal
g) if you don't want to keep "scalping" for the good entry, there is the reversal danger when it pretends one way and do the other
h) so the late entry is really the move here, if you have to do it late, BE TIGHT AF...
i) be tight either way anyway
코멘트:
h) TYPO ABOVE .. .the late entry is really NOT THE MOVE HERE... if you have do it late, just BE TIGHT AF
코멘트:
it's still this line that determines all of it:
코멘트:
코멘트:
12:02 AM ET 10/19... If it follows bear path, then I have then watch out for the first bounce at 1910-1915 area.
코멘트:
10/19 1:32 AM ET END OF POST - HERE IS NEXT ONE
a) so with caveat that I AM DOING THIS BC SOMETHING IS BETTER THAN NOTHING...
b) but since it has not been thoroughly vetted, use more caution than you normally would
c) in chart above, there is no third extrapolation
d) in fact, there is no real "second" extrapolation
e) that is to say blue route's "extension of volatile momentum" DOMINATES the extrapolation pictures