MQP-IER-003: 15 MIN BARS TO 8/29

HEADER - Last two posts have invalidated. So here short term to Tuesday 8/29.

SUMMARY - From last note in MQP-IER-001, down first then close strong after Powell's Jackson Hole Speech. Nothing "big" expected for some time.

DETAILS - This is just basically what short term says now. As usual, will add notes as we go.

코멘트:

8/25 12:41 AM ET - 1908 AT ROUGHLY 7 AM ET:

a) just an educated guess
b) education from school of life
c) good night

코멘트:

8/25 6:25 AM ET 1916.XX
a) no idea what's going to happen now
b) this bump to 1917 at this point gives too many different short term extrapolations
c) but it does flip the picture a bit by pushing up first ahead of Powell speech
d) so push here to 1919

코멘트:

e) and then close the day 1906-1909
f) at this point, that's the route, but it's not a huge favorite or anything
g) sorry if that doesn't help but there's just nothing distinctly favorable here
h) it would just be a wait it out moment

코멘트:

i) to be fair, it does open the window to 1926 AND 1933 CLOSE...
j) as ugly as it looks, but I can't handicap that here, it would just be wait and see

코멘트:

k) 6:54 AM ET, NOTHING PAST 1923 is realistic, I checked again
l) but can't say it favors a hard move down either
m) stumped at the moment

코멘트:

n) ok, so 1920 then 1905, thats the most realistic route here
o) but can't say that's a favorite or anytthing

코멘트:

p) 7:22 AM ET
q) 1919-1920, then 1905, then maybe even 1895 close
r) that is the in-theory favorite

코멘트:

s) 7:42 AM ET, that's what it set up for...
t) 1920 to 1885 and we should know by 11:15 AM ET
u) see you at 10:00 AM ET sharp to see some shenanigans

코멘트:

v) 8:20 AM ET 1919.XX 105 minutes to TO POWELL (marketwatch calendar says 10:05)
w) theoretical ceiling is 1923.xx, past that it should only spend a minute or two there
x) and rug pull immediately,

코멘트:

y) 9:50 AM ET, 15 min before Powell, 1915.XX, setup for rugpull to 1885 by 11:30 AM ET is in place
z) only question is it going to do what the curves say it should do?

코멘트:

10:01 AM ET 1915.xx from 1917.xx
1) that mini bounce sets up the drop
2) it's 9:02 as I type and we are 1911.xx

코멘트:

3) typo 10:02 I mean

코멘트:

4) and 10:03 and I just saw 1919 again.. this is a bit pointless

코멘트:

5) finally 10:05 and a minute over 1921
6) next 85 minutes solves this puzzle at least for today

코멘트:

7) 10:09 AM ET, will this channel stick?

코멘트:

8) 10:21 AM ET 1914.xx after double topping at 1922.5
9) POWELL finished a few minutes ago
10) the chart looks pretty the same as it did 16 minutes ago...

코멘트:

11) so setup now looks like this:

코멘트:

12) we need this to break:

코멘트:

13) and it just did while I was typing

코멘트:

14) and bounced up, now we need this to hold:

코멘트:

15) excellent, now we need this to hold:

코멘트:

16) see this box??

코멘트:

a) in chart above:
b) fractals say price will go SIDEWAYS IN THAT BOX BEFORE IT CONTINUES DOWN

코멘트:

c) but at 10:35 AM ET, it looks resistance bold line will fail

코멘트:

d) and it just did::

코멘트:

e) I'll stay as long as I can, but after 11:00 AM ET, I'm really pressed to go
f) so I have another 20-25 min

코멘트:

g) question, does it really say it will hit 1885 by 11:30 AM ET??
h) well yeah, but I've been wrong how many times now I should quit doing this
i) ooh, under 1907 now...

코멘트:

j) for the record...
1) this post (chart at top) was not really too far off for price action into Powell's
speech
2) bc we did hit that low 1911 before hitting 1922 twice
3) bu that was only recognizable at around 7 AM ET...
4) other wise, it does seem (at this second in time) that IER-001 SHOULD continue to hold
5) replay here:

코멘트:

6) bars are still updating, but check later, you'll be as surprised as I am this morning

코멘트:

k) so I moved the box up where it should be and filled out the fan:

코멘트:

l) all we now is this:

m) and for it to finish the second leg down

코멘트:

n) so see this vertical at 11:26 PM ET?

코멘트:

o) typo, AM ET:

코멘트:

p) JUST BROKE THE BOX!!

코멘트:

q) anyway, the BEAR MOMENTUM ENDS RIGHT AROUND 11:26, that's why I have it there
r) so regardless of what price action seem like... be VERY CAREFUL SHORTING AFTER THAT TIME

코멘트:

s) meanwhile, back into the box ew:

코멘트:

t) box expired so here is hard stop at 1908, for people who trade very short term:

코멘트:

u) not looking too hot here:

코멘트:

v) so I am out of time again
w) hope you did ok today, good luck the rest of it!
x) for the purposes of continuing where I am leaving off.. .this post chart is no good
y) I am too busy to make another one
z) so we'll see what happens the rest of today first and I ll post something here

코멘트:

8/25 11:12 AM ET 1905.XX

코멘트:

a) for chart above:
b) an update of the time expiration for this short has it sit at about 11:40-ish
c) so an extra 14 minutes
d) and yes, it matters a big deal

코멘트:

e) I don't know about 1885, but 1895 looks really reasonable considering the bearish setup we have
f) that's a wrap for me

코멘트:

g) later from my car
h) extra 14 min was full of sh...

코멘트:

i) we still on track for 1885 by Monday this time