MyJournal 01 - 05/01/2024

1월 6일

LOSSES COMMENTS:
- Fear of missing out. FOMO
- Correction: Friday not FOMC, but NFP

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FUNDAMENTALS:
a) DXY: FED rate pause, sentiment continue, 2024 FED expected to cut, bearish USD
b) XAU: XAU strong fundamentally, Lobo Tiggre said 2024 bullish gold in all cases
c) Other:
-This week has nothing to offer, I would like to wait until FOMC come out & take trades for next week.
-Powell said dovish tone, expect DXY to SELL next week.


(WEAK BIAS) USD SELL | XAU BUY, XAUUSD BULL/BEARISH TECHNICALS:
- Last W1 chart bullish, but pinbar, but we expect to sell, as it is beginning of the month, expect bearish at least to 2020-2015
- Weekly typical structure, D1 chart Monday/Tuesday bull to 2070.0 – 2075 before peak & turn
- Weekly typical structure, D1 chart Tues/Wed expect to bear to target
- Weekly typical structure, D1 chart Thurs/Fri expect to bear to target
*check DXY chart to confirm the thesis, 15M chart- Execute, Breakout/Pullback


TAKING POSITION RULES:-
1) Tuesday, open only 1 position of all pairs, as weekly structure unconfirm.
2) Wednesday, open 2 positions on Tuesday's losses (if we still expect the same weekly structure). This offers us tighter SL, with greater RR.
3) Thursday, if Wednesday still loss, open another 2 positions on Wed's losses (if we still expect the same weekly structure). Thus, max loss @0.25% x5 = -1.25%, if -6%, still need 5 straight week loss.


ADDITIONAL BIAS:
a) Round psychology number 50/00
b) WeeklyTypicalStructure:
-anatomy of candle, price always push to other side first before making real move
-midweek reversalrejection/continuation > BuyBuy*SellSell / SellSell*BuyBuy
c) Daily Candlestick Pattern: doji, engulfing, insidebar/railroad
d) TakeProfit TP / StopLoss SL
Depends on:
-fundamentally / what are the news saying
-liqiudity pool at Daily/Weekly/Monthly where
-averageDailyRange ADR
-catch explosive move only if direction align with weekly high low bias.
Eg. Previous day was bullish doji at daily support & it is mid of the week, do catch today explosive move to next weekly liquidity pool.
e) Entry timing recommendation
-session LONDON, NY 9-12PM GMT+8
f) Entry with discount price, use fib