Gold will break the flag and hold! Going lower...

숏

골드 스팟 / 미국 달러 (FOREXCOM:XAUUSD)

업데이트됨

FOREXCOM:XAUUSD 골드 스팟 / 미국 달러

Please see my previous threads on gold and miners that have my indepth thoughts where I share expert findings and my own charting with various indicators I like to use.
Suffice to say, gold and miners are going to go lower as long as the dollar doesn't fall through the channel support.

코멘트:

2,300 is a psychological level, once broken, will bring swift fury...

코멘트:

I guess this'll be dragged out till the weekend hits, so this'll probably end up like this before dropping like a stone on Monday:

코멘트:

Indecision here at the right shoulder. Invalidation or will it drop mull along the bottom of the flag and drop next week?

TUNE IN!

코멘트:

A well respected chartist using Gann (effectively) sees more lows coming...

코멘트:

How do I know gold's about to plummet? Miners are leading the way like they always do...
Always last to the party, first to go home...

코멘트:

The dollar is ripping, this is coiling, the longer it waits the stronger the downward thrust. Buying low IV otm puts on

GDXJ here is warranted...

코멘트:

H&S shows up better on the 4H

코멘트:

Death cross on the 4H double retest...

코멘트:

Rising wedge alert!

코멘트:

Something is building to a big move!

코멘트:

Decision time...

코멘트:

Miners lead, I can see this opening lower tomorrow like today...

코멘트:

If gold doesn't continually grind sideways this week, ultimately we'll have a pierce of the flag support line, retracement, a meandering - then a drop before a bounce. The drop could be way bigger than charted since we're dealing with a ton of bullish sentiment within the sector overall with that previous run up...

코멘트:

Big move coming, there's a tug of war going on within this triangle. I don't see gold NOT breaking through the flag's downside, coming down here so many times.

코멘트:

Looks like it's gonna shoot up, acting like it's not gonna go down eventually breaking down through the flag...

코멘트:

Nice morning fake-out

코멘트:

I guess we know where this is going...

코멘트:

So we have a massive descending triangle happening, but could price go the scenic route (green) before it dumps? Probably. Hopefully this won't become a chop-salad and will just exit the flag forcefully before bouncing off support below and jumping to 3k.

코멘트:

Weird how reality runs on fractals, that history rhymes. Here's the silver miners playing out - which I think is correlated to market flushes.

Here's the movements:
After the top it took 6 weeks to reach a bottom - we're in week 4 (almost 20% loss).
One week up retracement (8% gain) - which'll coincide with the FOMC minutes (I bet they are hawkish to warrant FED doing an about face and cutting in July).
One week huge down candle (30% loss).
One (half) week up retracement (20% gain).
One week (and the previous half) another huge down candle (40% loss).
Last week goes up beginning the week and then down further (40% loss) and bottoms midweek before catapulting - which coincides with the July FOMC rate decision (30% gain).

I'm hoping IV is cheap enough to buy some puts and calls - not sure how much volatility will raise the price towards the bottom so it might be wise to buy some longer dated calls in and then scale in as time goes on and variances work themselves out.

I'm looking to buy in 2 weeks.

I anticipate the market to capsize after the FOMC minutes are released. Buy puts before that (Wednesday July 3rd before a holiday and the fireworks happen - in the market...), then if IV is low, buy calls on EVERYTHING CAUSE IT'S GONNA MOON!!

Newmont doubled within 2 months after rates were cut so I'm gonna buy calls on that miner which is the safest in the world. I anticipate price to be about $20 when this happens. There's a chance Newmont could go up 400% within 1 year.

If IV hasn't gone up too much, I'll rotate into the junior miner Endeavor Silver