200DMA in focus as ceasefire speculation sparks sharp drop

11월 25일

A softer US dollar and falling bond yields typically create a favourable environment for gold, but not today. Prices have plunged sharply, testing the 200DMA, a level that has made for reliable buying in recent times. Reports of a potential Israel-Lebanon ceasefire may explain the drop, but given past false dawns, price action may prove more reliable than speculative headlines for gauging near-term directional risks.

For longs, the 200DMA offers an opportunity to buy with a stop just below for protection, targeting $2710, a level tied to horizontal resistance briefly broken in light trade either side of the weekend. However, a close below the 200DMA would invalidate the bullish setup. Mixed momentum signals make price action the clearest guide for now.

11월 25일

액티브 트레이드

Trade nixed. In hindsight, the inability for gold to benefit in an environment in which it usually thrives was a warning sign not to fade geopolitical and perceived less left-tail risk flows.

DS.