Today, the price of gold broke a new high, with the highest price rising to $2,482, and has fallen back after the high.
Regarding the Fed's expectations for interest rate cuts, I have recently communicated with some professional investors. Everyone generally believes that the interest rate cut is expected in September, and even believes that the Fed will cut interest rates three times in September, November, and December.
Unlike market expectations, Trump's speech last night shocked the overseas investment market. In an interview with Business Weekly, he revealed heavy information:
First: If Trump is elected this year, he will continue to appoint Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve until the expiration of his term in 2028.
Second, he also warned Powell to avoid interest rate cuts before the November election to prevent excessive employment rates and economic boosts from Biden's approval rating in the next few months.
The public speech is Trump's campaign for the election, and also a coercion and inducement to Powell. Because Trump's probability of winning this year's election has exceeded 70%, and Powell's position as chairman of the Federal Reserve was given by Biden or the Democratic Party.
So Trump gave Powell a price: no interest rate cuts before September, in order to reduce the possibility of Biden's comeback in the November election. If Powell is obedient, then in the next four years, Powell may still be able to control this important department that can command the world.
Although the gold price has broken through a new high today, if the expectation of interest rate cuts in the short term cannot be fulfilled, I think it will be very difficult to rise again.
Powell must consider his career and the interest groups behind him. Therefore, instead of cutting interest rates in September, the probability of cutting interest rates after the November election is increasing, and it is not ruled out that the Fed's first interest rate cut will reach 50BP.
So how should we deal with the gold market next?
From the trend of gold prices, after breaking through the key pressure of 2450, gold prices rose again this morning, releasing a lot of long momentum in the short term, and more energy is needed to continue to impact upward. So next we should pay more attention to the position of the top and bottom conversion.
In terms of operation, we need to pay attention to today's opening position at 2468-69, pay attention to the pressure of this position, and pay attention to the support of 2450-2442 below, which is the top and bottom conversion position.