Sell order activated / Gold near my entry values

2022년 8월 11일

Gold's general commentary: Gold’s upswing was in continuation (Hourly 4 chart’s Descending Channel is invalidated) on U.S. Core CPI debacle which added enormous Selling pressure on DX and confirmed the fact that Inflation won’t be transitory. I was confident that even though DX is hammered and suffering strong losses, Buying bias should be contained as High as the Hourly 1 chart Resistance zone, but on the contrary, Bond Yields engaged parabolic decline and added enormous Buying pressure, visible on Gold charts on mid-U.S. session. Price-action rebounded again, was about to test the #1,808.80 - #1,815.80 Resistance cluster (Higher High’s Upper extension). Once again Fundamental data revived Buyers on such Bearish Technical landscape, but my analysis filters such events and sooner or later I am looking at decent possibility of Gold testing #1,752.80 Lower Low’s extension and as long as the Daily chart is Bearish, I will not be interested in Buying Gold.


Technical analysis: Technically, if I have another upside attempt and possible rejection near the Resistance zone, then a rejection back towards the #1,792.80 and #1,785.80 is more probable, where if Gold closes one full Hourly 4 candle below the Support, I have a Bearish breakout towards / correction towards #1,752.80 - #1,755.80 Lower Low’s sequence. Based on today’s disastrous CPI reading, Gold should be significantly Higher under the circumstances. Configuration shows that Buying bias is less possible as Gold won’t represent sole hedge asset against the Inflation. The Hourly 4 chart RSI sequence is identical to the February #24 - #27 #2017, which after it hit the #MA50, resulted into the sharp decline towards #1,566.80 (was representing Lower Low then), as Gold historically repeats it’s Cycles as I expect steeper takedown from this point. At the same time Bond Yields were Trading on Descending Channel after Resistance / Top rejection (# - 3.05% up from Friday’s session Lower High’s) and DX was on aggressive takedown. If correlation continued to Trade in mentioned direction, sole development should pile on Buying pressure on Gold but (can be retroactively) without any major Macro reports this Trading week, I may have to wait until tomorrow’s session for more significant action on Gold. Gold got the necessary Fundamental correction (as discussed, every time Gold gets rejected on Higher High’s variance, Lower Low zone is tested) as I should be seeing a continuation of the downtrend. I am expecting #1,752.80 test within #3 sessions. If market is closed above #1,803.80, expect #1,815.80 to be met within one session.


My position: After carefully waiting for chance to re-Sell Gold, I have engaged my Selling order with #1,788.80 as entry point, Targeting #1,760.80 first, then #1,755.80 extension Trading below.