Gold Weekly update 13.02-17.02
On Gold I am more bearish than bullish and let's see why.
In my opinion Gold will continue down in a bearish channel and we have two reversal points. I marked them on the chart. There is still a possibility of a bigger push to fill the imbalance, but in my opinion price is not ready for a such big bullish move.
Macroeconomics
Last week FED announced that they probably will rase the rates more than 5%, which was the target for this year. Labor market is extremely strong, wages are going higher - very inflationary for the economic.
Joe Biden also announced last week that USA has very strong labor market and he is not worried about the people, because they have well paid jobs and companies offer more and more jobs. In theory it is very strong economy.
The strong labor market is a fact, but it is against the FED main politic to keep inflation down.
Top-Down Analysis
On a weekly TF we have doji candle, but it not mean that Gold will reverse, it means only slow down - consolidation or bearish channel.
Daily candle closed as bullish candle, thats why we may see one or two bullish candles next week, before the continuation down.
Swing projection
Right now the swing projection is misleading and the timing is also not clear.
We can only use the table of returns, which is showing that February is a bearish month.
Benchmark
This chart is confirming the bearish direction.
-The indices are bearish
-All metals are bearish
-Yields are bullish
COT Reports
On Gold the professional traders are still bullish, but it seems they are turning.
On Silver the professional traders are currently bearish.
Yields
The Yields are bullish for me and they will continue up, especially with the current economic mood about more interest rates this year.
XAUUSD vs GDX
GDX is going down and I am not expecting to turn turn up, at least not next week.
Gold vs Silver
Silver is pretty bearish, confirming that Gold will continue down.
Elliot Wave
I am working on the theory that Gold is forming the second wave of the structure.
Volume Spread Analysis - Wyckoff patterns
Main volume is to the down side. When Future market is bearish, it is also confirmation that XAUUSD will go down.
Retail Support and Resistance
Price is moving down from zone to zone. Also Gold found resistance from the moving averages.
Momentum
The main momentum is bearish, right now price is reversing, but without momentum.
RSI is in bearish range. RSI formed divergence, but this could be only a pull back.
In my opinion Gold will continue down in a bearish channel and we have two reversal points. I marked them on the chart. There is still a possibility of a bigger push to fill the imbalance, but in my opinion price is not ready for a such big bullish move.
Macroeconomics
Last week FED announced that they probably will rase the rates more than 5%, which was the target for this year. Labor market is extremely strong, wages are going higher - very inflationary for the economic.
Joe Biden also announced last week that USA has very strong labor market and he is not worried about the people, because they have well paid jobs and companies offer more and more jobs. In theory it is very strong economy.
The strong labor market is a fact, but it is against the FED main politic to keep inflation down.
Top-Down Analysis
On a weekly TF we have doji candle, but it not mean that Gold will reverse, it means only slow down - consolidation or bearish channel.
Daily candle closed as bullish candle, thats why we may see one or two bullish candles next week, before the continuation down.
Swing projection
Right now the swing projection is misleading and the timing is also not clear.
We can only use the table of returns, which is showing that February is a bearish month.
Benchmark
This chart is confirming the bearish direction.
-The indices are bearish
-All metals are bearish
-Yields are bullish
COT Reports
On Gold the professional traders are still bullish, but it seems they are turning.
On Silver the professional traders are currently bearish.
Yields
The Yields are bullish for me and they will continue up, especially with the current economic mood about more interest rates this year.
XAUUSD vs GDX
GDX is going down and I am not expecting to turn turn up, at least not next week.
Gold vs Silver
Silver is pretty bearish, confirming that Gold will continue down.
Elliot Wave
I am working on the theory that Gold is forming the second wave of the structure.
Volume Spread Analysis - Wyckoff patterns
Main volume is to the down side. When Future market is bearish, it is also confirmation that XAUUSD will go down.
Retail Support and Resistance
Price is moving down from zone to zone. Also Gold found resistance from the moving averages.
Momentum
The main momentum is bearish, right now price is reversing, but without momentum.
RSI is in bearish range. RSI formed divergence, but this could be only a pull back.
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