Despite DX on Selling sequence, Gold remains pressured Intra-day

2022년 7월 20일

Gold's general commentary: After carefully monitoring yesterday's E.U. and U.S. sessions looking for Intra-day pointers, DX filled nicely Bearish Gap and extended it's #2-session consecutive decline, now Trading near one of key Support zones priced at #106.400 - #106.600, however Gold keeps Higher levels intact as on the other hand, Bond Yields are Trading near local peak which gives me a hint that Gold correlation currently relies on #2 different asset classes, firstly DX, then secondly Bond Yields on relief rally (with DX of course remaining main correlating instrument). As long as DX continues to Trade on losses, Gold will be forced to test the Resistance fractal and vice-versa. Regarding today’s session, my bias leans more to the Neutral side (while Medium-term remains Bearish) unless DX bounces (makes a rebound) near Support zone and attracts Buyers and in meantime, I spotted reversal signs on Hourly 1 chart on DX / as it all depends where the Hourly 1 chart’s candle will close. If above or near #106.600 sequence, that sole development could be a confirmation of reversal and it gives me an opportunity to Sell Gold on spot towards #1,678.80, applying strict Risk management. I assume no orders at the moment as I haven’t got confirmation from DX. My estimation is pointing that DX is correcting recent gains and that Medium-term remains critically Bullish, as market is awaiting catalyst to move.


Technical analysis: Price-action fluctuation and aggressive Volatility came as no surprise after today’s E.U. session opening which caused DX to Trade sideways and add uncertainty on Gold which resulted as almost #8 - #10 point Hourly 1 Price-action fluctuation. Hourly 4 chart turned Neutral but Daily chart remains critically Bearish, which may be hinting towards #1,678.80 again (reason of current pullback). I don’t think that Gold is ready for Bearish full scale reversal towards Lower levels yet, but surely I cannot rule out wider decline within #5 sessions as soon as DX bounces of the trendline and exceeds total Bullish domination. Price-action is Trading around the Support on Hourly 1 chart, indication of indecision ahead. Also, today’s Bearish Hourly 4 candlestick pattern is an indication of increased tension and market expectations (environment which is not Gold friendly). At the moment Investors should place their capital on equity markets, which are on hard Resistance levels. Gold's Price-action reminds on late August / early September consolidation levels and historical regression analysis shows that when Trading for long on those levels, aggressive takedown follows on the aftermath. Besides this, nothing else supports the upwards argument since all Hourly charts are showing Bearish values but still Fundamental pressure is evident. As I said, prepare for huge Volatility / rally on Gold with Bullish / Bearish spikes all along. I will manage the risk carefully and wait another opportunity to add additional set of Selling orders. Remember, what was an Support, becomes a Resistance when broken and same rule applies for Resistances (becoming Supports). I am fully Bearish on Gold’s Medium-term. My estimation even shows #1,588.80 possibility (Long-term). Weekly chart regressions show that Gold should continue Trading sideways for a few more weeks (aggressive Support and Resistance breaks). All my previous Resistance and Support levels remained the same / valid. It is possible though due to the less news, to see a Low Volumed flat Price-action throughout today's session, not worth risking my capital. But overall, current configurations seems like pricing the new Medium-term Resistance which confirms my Selling sentiment and outlook.


My position: As Gold is slowly losing value with every candle, if DX don't disappoint and #1,700.80 - #1,698.80 breaks, #1,678.80 sequence might be tested Intra-day.