XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detail

업데이트됨

Gold (XAU/USD) prices surged to near $2,430 in Friday's New York session, rebounding after a turbulent week sparked by the Bank of Japan's surprise rate hike. But with the Fed's potential September rate cut looming, will gold continue its climb?

The recent recovery highlights a firm near-term outlook for gold, driven by strong speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin reducing interest rates in September.

There is ongoing debate among investors about the Fed’s approach to rate cuts. Some are anticipating a more aggressive 50 basis point (bp) reduction, while others expect a 25 bp cut. According to the CME FedWatch tool, current 30-day Federal Funds futures data shows a 54.5% probability of a 50 bp cut in September. Additionally, projections for the year indicate a potential total reduction of 100 bps.

In this video, I explored the current market sentiment, weighed the chances of both buyers and sellers in this volatile environment and discussed how to prepare for potential trading opportunities in the upcoming week.

XAUUSD Technical Overview:
This week, we're focusing on the $2,425 zone. This could be a make-or-break point just like it did last week. If gold stays above this zone: Bulls might maintain control, potentially pushing prices higher and setting up new highs. If gold drops below the zone then Bears might gain the upper hand in an attempt to retrace into the structure-support line of the ascending channel in the process. Join me as we explore these factors and potential opportunities in the gold market. Like, subscribe, and hit the notification bell for the latest analysis and insights!

📌 Follow my journey as I map out the next moves in this dynamic market!

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Disclaimer Notice:
Trading in the foreign exchange market and other instruments carries a high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content provided here is for educational purposes only. Evaluate your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

액티브 트레이드

Gold (XAU/USD) experienced renewed buying interest during the Asian session, benefiting from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Concerns about the potential escalation of conflict are providing a significant boost to gold, which is traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, market expectations of substantial interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are supporting the precious metal.

Despite this, a generally positive sentiment in equity markets and a modest uptick in the US Dollar could limit gold's upward momentum.

Investors are likely to adopt a cautious approach, awaiting key US inflation data—specifically the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) due on Tuesday and Wednesday.

As we navigate this period of uncertainty, the newly identified technical structure on the 1-hour timeframe will be crucial in guiding our trading decisions for the week ahead.

Good Morning

액티브 트레이드

With our buy position currently up by over 300 pips, it's a strategic moment to secure some profits as selling pressure emerges during the Asian session. The generally positive tone in equity markets is contributing to a dampened demand for gold, creating pressure on the precious metal as traders reposition ahead of upcoming US inflation data.

Despite this, several factors are providing support for gold and helping to curb potential deeper losses. From the geopolitical tension [Russia-Ukraine and Isreal - Iran conflicts], to the ongoing expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September continues to act as a tailwind for gold.

It is worth noting that the anticipated rate cut may not provide significant support for the US Dollar (USD), making gold an attractive alternative.

Given these conditions, it is advisable to lock in profits while observing how far this current retracement will extend. Stay tuned as I will be sharing a new trading set-up on the lower time frame shortly.

Good Morning

액티브 트레이드

STRUCTURAL UPDATE | 15 Min Timeframe

액티브 트레이드

#XAUUSD

Another buy position triggered as PPI data comes in below market's expectation. Secure position now as we look out for new trading opportunities.

액티브 트레이드

After being taken out of all buy positions in profit yesterday, Gold prices remain range-bound, with buyers awaiting further cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.

Recent Developments:
📈 Positive Equity Markets: A generally positive sentiment in equity markets may suppress demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
📉 Inflation Cooling: The Producer Price Index (PPI) data released yesterday showed a larger-than-expected decline in inflation, supporting expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Fed.
🌎 Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East continue to fuel geopolitical uncertainty, providing support for gold.

Market Outlook:
📊 Focus on Consumer Inflation: The market is eagerly awaiting the release of US consumer inflation figures, which will provide crucial insights into the inflation trajectory and potential Fed policy moves.
🤔 Cautious Trading: Traders are currently reluctant to make aggressive directional bets and are waiting for the outcome of the US CPI data for fresh impetus.
🔁 Range-Bound Trading: This cautious sentiment is contributing to range-bound price action in the gold market.

Technical Perspective:
⏳ 15-Minute Timeframe: The structural details on the 15-minute timeframe will be our guiding light for trading opportunities today.

Good Morning

코멘트

Gold prices faced downward pressure yesterday as investors adjusted their expectations for more aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing following the release of US consumer inflation data. Despite this, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and anticipation of the Fed's forthcoming rate-cutting cycle, coupled with a subdued US Dollar (USD), helped gold regain some traction during the Asian session.

Reduced speculation for a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut in September led to a slight rebound in US Treasury bond yields, potentially limiting the upside for gold. Additionally, it is worth noting that the positive tone in equity markets may act as a headwind for safe-haven assets.

However, the overall fundamental backdrop remains supportive of gold, with potential for further gains as we await key US economic data later today.

As we prepare for today's Retail Sales report, a new technical structure has been identified to guide trading decisions. Gold's price action remains above the ascending trendline, keeping bullish prospects intact. I will be sharing a simple set-up on the 15-minute timeframe shortly... Stay tuned.

Good Morning