GOLD - Hundred bucks (Trading the daily cycle decline)

After testing the 2021.06.01 pivot at 1916 gold printed daily swing high today.

The daily cycle peaked on day 50. More than enough , it was an extremely long daily cycle. No question we are moving into the daily cycle low where I want to be long again to test the all time highs.

What to expect during this decline?

First of all I want to see the 4 day RSI to get oversold. Right now we haven't seen RSI to get oversold since the end of October.


Using the Fibonacci retracement the minimum target is the 23,6% and maybe the 50%.

Using the moving the averages price will break below the 10 EMA (red) , test the 50SMA (blue) and maybe tag the 200 EMA (purple).

If the regression event is enough violent the lower Bollinger band will be tagged and price might break through on the last day.

The target is : 1810$ and the trade will last for 5-7 days.

코멘트:

Typical DCL type move today.
Green daily candle to pull in bulls and dump by the end of day…

코멘트:

We are going to close near the daily low.

코멘트:

Silver is leading. 23 pulling like a magnet.

코멘트:

Xauxag trending higher. Silver might break down the range before turning up
Again.

코멘트:

It seems the daily cycle top came 2 days later than I expected :on last Friday.

코멘트:

If there is no continuation of the rally after Thursday's green candle, then it was just a false breakout

코멘트:

Xauxag is breaking higher and silver is breaking down:

코멘트:

The starting dollar rally will accelerate the metal decline

코멘트:

Notice the divergemce between the price and RSI

코멘트:

We all knew that at some point the dollar will start to rally : after all we are having an FOMC meeting next week.

코멘트:

I have a feeling we are going to have a key reversal today . for this We need to close below Yesterday’s low what was 1911…

코멘트:

First time this year we are tagging the 200 SMA.

코멘트:

First lower low on the hourly this year.

코멘트:

100 SMA backtest

코멘트:

We have an important daily data today which will affect gold and dollar prices. the US core PCE index was at 4.7% in November and is expected to decline to 4.4% in December. I think the data will be 4.2-4.3% what clearly shows that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy has effectively decreased inflation.

코멘트:

100 EMA and 100 SMA backtested again.

코멘트:

Test of the 200SMA on the hourly.
We are going to break it sooner or later

코멘트:

The rising wedge broke down yesterday finally. Traders who are long for a while are taking profit ahead of the FOMC meeting.

코멘트:

Crazy markets. Holding the short position:

I’ve seen many times in the past how the gold market and currency markets are reversing the next day after the FOMC meeting. Wait for dust to settle down.

코멘트:

Day 63. One of the longest daily cycle I have ever seen in gold. I would definetely not long here. You know the rule : stairstep up elevator down. Or freefall.

코멘트:

Wow. What a reversal. We just gave back all of yesterday’s gains in 1 hour.

코멘트:

4 hours left from today’s trading, if there is no dramatic change by the close we are printing a key reversal:
New high today and a close below yesterday’s low.