NFP session / Gold under violent Volatility

2022년 8월 5일

Gold's general commentary: Interesting cyclical Gold’s activity regarding past #3 consecutive sessions which showcased how Gold’s Price-action largely depends on Fundamental side where Wednesday’s session Bullish Gap fill on DX caused by numbers greater on ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report, delivered sharp #19 point movement on Gold, where Buying pressure was evident almost all session long. It is important to mention one of the biggest spreads between Gold (Xau-Usd Spot) and Gold Futures after roll-over or almost #16 + points differential, which is the messenger that these are not normal Technical sessions, on the contrary / sessions with violent Volatility and one should Trade with caution with Trading set-ups and optimal patterns. As Wednesday’s session Selling run was altered near key Support zone of #1,752.80 - #1,755.80 level and closed way Higher, DX failed to break Medium-term Resistance fractal seen Trading at #160.500 mark, lowered Real Rates Yields to #0.251% and Bond Yields #2.730 and in addition, my Short-term Bias leans more to the Bullish side.


Technical analysis: Gold has finally peaked right below local High’s and delivered more than #2 consecutive Bullish Hourly 1 chart’s candles and almost hit the Daily chart’s #MA50 (which is holding and rejecting the Price-action since April #22). Last time the Price-action broke below the Daily chart #MA50 it dropped another # -2.70% before starting a strong #16-session relief rally. Technically, that puts Gold at risk of Bullish Medium-term sequence, where the Resistance is now at #1,790.80 (#2 points down already from yesterday’s session) and breaking above it, confirms the new Bullish leg towards #1,815.80. Current Price-action represents crossroads for the Short-term. I will chose not to Trade the NFP Volatility throughout today’s session as I am more than satisfied with my current Trading results, and NFP sessions are traditionally most Volatile ones where engaging any kind of order can backfire strongly. I will monitor the Price-action from sidelines and take an early weekend break.