Not chasing silver higher given Fed may disappoint

Silver looks bullish, breaking through downtrend resistance last Friday with ease as traders ramped up Fed rate cuts bets. However, with over 120 basis points priced in 2024, that leaves silver vulnerable to a reversal should the Fed not deliver on those expectations. Therefore, rather than buy the break, I’d rather see what the Fed does before entering a trade.

Should the price move back towards support between 30.157 and former downtrend, it will provide a decent level to build setups around.

If the zone were to hold, you could buy with a stop below the downtrend targeting $31.754 or multi-year high of $32.50 set in May. Alternatively, if it were to reverse through the zone, you could sell with a stop above the downtrend for protection. Potential targets include the 50DMA or $27.71.

Momentum remains higher with RSI (14) and MACD generating bullish signals. However, from a fundamental perspective, if US yields push higher before or after the Fed, it may lead to a stronger dollar and renewed headwinds for silver.

Good luck!
DS