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XAGUSD: 2-month timeframe and weekly timeframe analysis

업데이트됨

We have an interesting juncture in Silver here. Next week, if we don't hit 16.075 on close, bear momentum validation will have failed, giving us a buy signal. This happens to match the time expiration of the recent 9 week downtrend signal, which has already exhausted it downside potential ahead of time.
If we don't hit 14.881, the long term chart has a potential buy on any drop below 16.412, so it becomes increasingly interesting to go long Silver with this confluence of technical setups in multiple timeframes.

Now, the uptrend signals in lower timeframes, might lead to longer term selling by big players, and if that's the case, we could be seeing longer term downtrend continuation, but that remains yet to be seen. What we could glean so far from activity, is that commercials are long term bearish, and whenever they tip the scale too much towards net short positions, silver and gold break down massively, crushing the gold bugs hearts.
I think it's not possible to have a long term reversal, before all of them give up, but it hasn't happened yet, and it's unthinkable almost, to see people give up on gold and silver, so I always remain skeptical with long term buys in metals for this reason.

Good luck riding the shorter term waves here,
Cheers.

Ivan Labrie.

노트

-as you can see, we had more downside in this, gold, euro and yen-
Next week futures rollover, then December FOMC/rate hike.
I'd assume it'll be complicated to trade for a while.

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I took a stab and went long at 16.254, stop 16.96.
Closed half already, so risk is almost nothing.

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Doubled my longs at the open and trailed all stops to Friday's low.

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Reenter if you're out.

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Going well.

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I'm not sure it can continue higher, be careful I'm out for now.

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Quite accurate.