Silver is gonna clear out the sentiment before launching...

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은 / 미국 달러 (FXOPEN:XAGUSD)

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FXOPEN:XAGUSD 은 / 미국 달러

Tons of reasons (PA breaking MA's, repeating fractals, support lines etc.) why silver is going lower, follow my gold and mining threads for daily updates. I will start this thread for silver and update this going forward. I will say I was calling for silver falling while everyone was chanting $38. It'll get there and more by the end of this year, but for now the dollar is blasting off and FED is jawboning rate cuts.

I ultimately see rates going down and the dollar going down to 97 before jumping up to 140-160+ and imploding ultimately. If Biden is elected we'll get CBDC's, if Trump is elected we'll return to the gold standard.

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Did you know junior miners are HIGHLY correlated to silver?

This shows that silver is gonna fall precipitously to meet junior miners who are falling just as fast...

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Weird how reality runs on fractals, that history rhymes. Here's the silver miners playing out - which I think is correlated to market flushes.

Here's the movements:
After the top it took 6 weeks to reach a bottom - we're in week 4 (almost 20% loss).
One week up retracement (8% gain) - which'll coincide with the FOMC minutes (I bet they are hawkish to warrant FED doing an about face and cutting in July).
One week huge down candle (30% loss).
One (half) week up retracement (20% gain).
One week (and the previous half) another huge down candle (40% loss).
Last week goes up beginning the week and then down further (40% loss) and bottoms midweek before catapulting - which coincides with the July FOMC rate decision (30% gain).

I'm hoping IV is cheap enough to buy some puts and calls - not sure how much volatility will raise the price towards the bottom so it might be wise to buy some longer dated calls in and then scale in as time goes on and variances work themselves out.

I'm looking to buy in 2 weeks.

I anticipate the market to capsize after the FOMC minutes are released. Buy puts before that (Wednesday July 3rd before a holiday and the fireworks happen - in the market...), then if IV is low, buy calls on EVERYTHING CAUSE IT'S GONNA MOON!!

Newmont doubled within 2 months after rates were cut so I'm gonna buy calls on that miner which is the safest in the world. I anticipate price to be about $20 when this happens. There's a chance Newmont could go up 400% within 1 year.

If IV hasn't gone up too much, I'll rotate into the junior miner Endeavor Silver

EXK which also went up 400% in 6 months and 800% in 1 year back in 2020. I will be loading calls on this one as well, hopefully getting in at $1.

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One more blow-off top via a Livermore distribution for silver? If it breaks 30.25 then this could very well see the scenic view before crashing when the FED cuts rates. That would mean we see a sizable thrust up by Wednesday.
Calls out of the money for July can run ya $15 for $44. That's my angle if silver breaks upward. If it falls due to dollar strength, then I'll be profiting handsomely on my

JDST calls.

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Bought some

AGQ 07/19/2024 60.00 Calls in case the Livermore pattern happens within the next two weeks before the markets fall. If the Livermore pattern erupts, that'll be a nice bonus for myself before capitalizing on this summer...

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Just resting on support, got me convinced...

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Both mention the bearish engulfing candles we're seeing so far. If this bounces at the end of the day, then I might buy more calls on

AGQ to take advantage of the Livermore accumulation pattern and the repeat patterns I'm seeing on

NEM and

SILJ before the 2020 pandemic. I don't think the miners will participate in this blow-off top to the degree the physical will which is why I'm sticking with options on $SLV/$AGQ.

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A LOT OF DARK POOL ACTIVITY:

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100% ALL IN - CRAMER JUST SAID GOLD WAS GOING DOWN!!

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Just like they pushed

SLV down at OPEX - they're going to put a low in for the monthly candle, aka this weekend. I anticipate a rebound starting next week. For now we should see a pretty big down candle today...

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We can see a big down day today and even tomorrow, as long as Friday it bumps back up, Monday it will rocket on a new month, showing this weekly candle being a beartrap that got oversold on the weekly, testing the trendline.

IF AND IF this does blast-off then I'm confident 100% in my fractal idea showcased by

SILJ and

NEM - and that we're in a blow-off top before a correction that catapults us into the LAST OF THE LAST blow-off tops.

Calls on

GILD ,

NEM and

TLT (

TMF if I can get enough volume at a low IV)...

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I'd like to see it not past $27.50 at it's lowest to retain the bounce back up. If it breaks down then I don't see the Livermore Accumulation pattern holding.

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If this goes to point 9/10 on the Livermore Accumulation model (going from $35-$38 to $48-$50), then I anticipate the markets cracking AFTER the FED signals on FOMC July 31st as opposed to it happening weeks earlier after the notes are released (which lines up with the

SILJ pattern).

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EXACTLY!

Falling Wedge backtest aka bull flag, gotta bounce back by the end of the week to stay in the game, or else it's goner'sville for a while...

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I'll execute more longs if this snaps down to the 27.75 20ma on the weekly this week.

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Core PCE Price Index m/m had a big effect on silver last month, I anticipate the same on Friday, taking it down to tag the 100 before taking off next week (if it'll adhere to the Livermore pattern). If not then 25.75 is the next stop and in a hurry!

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That probably means we get a down and up day tomorrow (retracement), a small up day on Thursday, with a big flush on Friday...

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About to be down today again...

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I have the same trendline showing his level. Going down to 26 and some change if the bull flag breaks down on the weekly, which we'll know by next week.

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"Silver will hold up!"
Silver this week:

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What I'm hoping this week looks like for silver that I just saw for the dollar (4H):

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Here's how it looked on the weekly. I don't expect a double leg down next week once it springs out IF it springs back out.

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I dunno, I think this is shaping up to be a fake out of a fake out. Looks like it's stretched and will fire back tomorrow right? I think it may look like that and then give us a bigger down day tomorrow (as mentioned yesterday), PCE is going to come in soft, so that may restart the bounce back up. If PCE is higher, than I don't see silver blasting off till FOMC minutes next week before July 4th. We should have our huge jump up.

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