WEEK 40: Oil Outlook

Despite the volatility in Crude Oil created by the attack on Saudi Arabian oil processing plants and some geopolitical tension with the US talking “war” in the media, the price has moved to our expected touchpoint. Oil saw a spike just a tad bit below $55 (down to $54.85) before a pull back on the close of the week. The week saw a -3.88% decline pressing again into the bottom of our trendline.

We saw a spike in volume on Oil that tipped +198k orders, highest in the last 5 days. This is a sign to us that Oil investors and traders see more opportunity in markets and have sized themselves in accordingly. We are looking at two potential plays with the same bias on this market, a move lower. We have removed our $66.00 potential long target, due to serious market commitment to the downside is prevalent.

Our first outlook is price the first outlook (in white) we could see price move lower to the $52.25 to $52.50 range before rallying to $57.75 - $58.00 range and moving lower to our end target of $42.50. The second scenario (in yellow) is our previous play; a move down to $56.00 and then run up to $66.00 before completing the Daily Bear Flag pattern

THE PLAY: Wait for Pullback to $60 and impulse down or $66 and impulse lower.