교육

VIX: at 12 in Pivot Zone

업데이트됨

Simple idea. In May & Aug VIX tapped 12 briefly before volatility returned. Here we are again.

There is a bullish trend ongoing with successively weaker spats of volatility. Next jump might tap 18-20.

The interval of rotation appears to be three months; May +3mo > Aug +3mo > November. Prices at ATH; rotation soon seems likely.

This is rank speculation and in no way constitutes investment advice; trade at your own risk; GLTA!

노트

Bottomed at 11 on 17 April and 11.55 on July 25. Today, 01 Nov we saw 12.25.
Expect a blowoff top Mon or Tues to get this down under 12 for a few hours.

Mid-Nov expect rotation and ^^^volatility. Perhaps a week or two before next up leg.

액티브 트레이드

It rose in a rising market! 12.44 low, now >12.80; expected sub-12, maybe this is the pivot?!

노트

I bought 4 Nov 27 $15 Calls for $1.35 in addition to added to 600 UVXY now in control of 1K VIX shares. The calls are a cheap bet with good R/R IMO.

액티브 트레이드

Have been accumulating these calls now holding ten. And still long UVXY.

노트

In May, Jul time from VIX 12 to pop: 9 days; now on day 7.

액티브 트레이드

In April and July from first touch at $12, exactly 17 sessions later VIX popped.

Now in window, on Day 9 from first touch of 12 on 30 October, can pop any day; I expect move within 5 sessions; on or about 19 Nov. I increased position to 30 VIX 27 Nov $15 strike call options, various prices, traded for 0.85c today with VIX at $12.70. Also accumulating UVXY, the 1.5x VIX ETF, trading between $17-18 atm.

Price target for VIX: $17 - 19. Don't expect a huge correction, just a pullback. If I see $18 VIX next week I'll close it all. A $5 rise in VIX should lift UVXY to around $25. Looking again at May, July, once the selling really got going, VIX peaked in each event on Day Four, NOT necessarily at the price bottom for equities!

NB: VIX can rise in a rising market with divergent RSI, and FALL in a FALLING market when the selling abates! VIX could get crushed sub-$10 on a massive Fifth Wave Rally... also note UVXY does not move lockstep with VIX, rather, it fluctuates based on prevailing VIX futures prices, which vary by demand:

"Forward VIX vs Spot VIX
Depending on how the market perceive volatility, the price of a VIX futures contract can be lower, equal or higher than the VIX spot price. Often, due to the mean-reverting nature of the VIX, when the VIX is low, VIX futures trade at a premium and when the VIX is high, VIX futures trade at a discount."

Refernce: theoptionsguide.com/vix-future.aspx

Markets forming shooting star Doji today!

노트

O yeah, here we go again! GLTA!

노트

Feels like an inflection point; hang on!

액티브 트레이드

Added a few moar VIX calls strike $15. Now at day 12 in the squeeze zone.

Feels crappy holding out while bulls grinds the VIX down but the pop will come soon and it will be real surprising when it does. Sellers are looking for the best price to dump shares now... when it starts will be magnificent!

Tues 19 is crux point. If no action by COB then will roll these calls out to April strikes. Low Vega and decreased demand from complacency has driven prices down- bargains to be had!

액티브 트레이드

Holding up well in the Friday AM pop; Vix at 12.70 is higher than it was early this week in spite of prices being higher. IMO its from divergence and some early price anxiety increasing put Vega. I added 10 more contracts.

If no pop by PM trade on nov 19th will roll to later series and stand pat!

액티브 트레이드

Got pounded down to 12.05 and bounced towards 13 again. Is real close to pop IMO.

I rolled the Nov series into Dec 11 15s, got 30 of them and room for a few more.

액티브 트레이드

Added April 20 calls. The MMs give a lousy spread on these Dec 15s; On Wednesday with SPX off 20 pips, the bid remained same at $1 all day but the ask fluctuated between 1.40 - 2.40; never place a market order! So on the mini-panic intraday these options traded on a bid-ask spread wider than the bid price of the option! The MMs make bank coming and going on these with stupid spreads and huge slippage, these are thinly traded contracts.

When they go ITM the MMs have to give at least the instrisic value; until then, they offer whatever they can gouge out of you. Beware!

액티브 트레이드

Rolled Dec contracts into Aprils, holding 2020 Apr $20 calls and UVXY shares. We're getting higher lows intraday, quite possible to see a double top before the rollover.

액티브 트레이드

Adding Feb 2020 $15 calls trading just under $3, seems like a fair bet, breakeven at VIX = $18.

액티브 트레이드

Bought 5 more. Now on Day 20 since sub-13. Let's see...

노트

Crushed under 12 again on 11/25. Market prices now 3x SD from 200MDA. Gotta give some back soon IMO!

거래청산: 타겟 닿음

VIX bounced to 18 then fell below 17 promptly. There's not enough fear in market yet; stopped these positions out, maybe premature but scalped a nice $4 gain coming up from $13(!) You can see it touched TL intraday on 12/3.

Longer term, another opportunity will certainly arrive shortly!

액티브 트레이드

Re-opened a small pos on EOD rally in May 2020 contracts strike $20 for net debit $2.70. If the megaphone expands to fill lower TL these could be >$60.

노트

Perspective: In Dec 2017 VIX was crushed down to 9; I reckon we might expect that to happen again after this minor correction completes. The current move might take the form of an A-B-C, after the B wave to 3110-3120, C could push index to next support at 3030 - 3040. A decline of that magnitude would provide the stimulus to boost prices to the next and probably final top, a true ATH of ATHs. A wave was near 70 pips, C would be similar.

Warning: when VIX goes under 10, the danger zone is extreme for long investors; the coiled up bear energy at these extreme inflection points will provoke extreme bearish momentum, as we saw in Feb 2018. This market is completing a long-term cycle, in which VIX has been progressively crushed for years (scroll chart back!); there is now over ten years' worth of bear momentum coiling up, a megaphone points at ~50% decline.

We should expect one more VIX crush deep into the danger zone! The 1.618 Fib extension from August breakdown is SPX 3212; the 2.0 Fib extension is 3326. This is the target box for final push IMO.

액티브 트레이드

Holding 50 VIX May $20 calls. In UVXY and VIXY. Buying the calls under $2.50.

Defrayed ownership cost with partial short sale of May $37.5 + 42.4 calls.

You can't create diagonal spreads on VIX without incurring huge margin expense, so I just sell the stupid high ones. Bear in mind might have to scramble to cover these; in Feb 2018 VIX went over 90.

DaddySawbucks