Weekly Volatility Snapshot

7월 5일

Good Evening -- Happy July 4th to everyone

Let us review last week as we look towards the next in anticipation of the trade deal deadline that looms. I had a target on the SPX of $6,253.59 and the weekly high was $6,284.65. The candle on the short week opened at its low of $6,019.21 and closed $6,233.08 making the weekly range +$213.87. This represents closest to HV63 over IV which stated +/-$253.26 and a 'strength of IV' that was 295%. Again the weekly high is above our range target, but my volatility will always be measured close-to-close.

Now as we look towards this week --



IV (13.85%) has shifted upwards slightly with HV10 (7.36%) hinged down and still lowering. In fact, I have bi-weekly volatility as 97.28% 'coiled' to it's sliding yearly low of 4.64% -- HV21 (9.92%) is closer to what IV states with it being 'coiled' 96.61% to it's respective sliding yearly lows.



In my opinion, volatility still has room to consolidate slightly as markets rotate higher. I think we can see upwards $6,327.73, but slowly over the course of the week with the last tariff uncertainty getting out of the way. From there, going into mid July we may need to see a volatility spike. The HV10 range I am watching holds a 'strength of IV' entering this week of only 53% -- this shows the price per move is expensive by almost twice as much.

Till next time, know your ABCs, have a great long weekend, and stay hedge!

CHEERS

7월 13일

매매 수동청산

A week of grinding price action with the VIX dropping lower in JULY! New updates are in and analysis will be out soon!