VIX - Positive Channel

2021년 2월 19일

Setups that looked beautiful on Tues/Wed were pretty much broken by Thur. We usually see this happen right before a major pullback in the market (5-10%). We got a fake breakout on the SPY as it gapped up this AM. Sellers took control quickly and as I write this the market is retesting the flag it's been inside of the past week.

The VIX is printing a positive trending channel and it's showing lots of bullish micro trends within it. I've moved everything to cash for the time being and waiting patiently for a strong buy signal for volatility or go-ahead to purchase long. The setups I had been stopped out of are at a decent price, but I'm not seeing spring in the price action. A good quality 'low' price shouldn't give you much time to buy it. I've had ample opportunity to secure low prices over the past two days, and that concerns me.

This groundhog see's a few more days of clouds in markets...

2021년 2월 19일

코멘트

SPX couldn't hold it's breakout this AM and got a firm sell off in the afternoon. More red coming Monday. VIX printed this lovely bull flag on the 5-m charts (I'm not opening any new volatility trades until we touch down on the lower trend channel):

2021년 2월 22일

코멘트

Rejection of the upper channel this AM. Falling back. Que Turn Around Tuesday. Looking at SPY, expecting market bottom (long wick) $384-85.

2021년 2월 22일

코멘트

That target is based on a bounce off the 50 MA on the 4hr chart.

2021년 2월 22일

코멘트

A v-shaped bounce with lots of spring off this lower trendline is VERY bearish. The market will sell off hard.