1 - Crash Sequence & Brexit Volatility vs Wave Patterns

The VIX indicator is used by analysts to measure the state of buy-sell investors’ emotions, complacency versus the fear effect. In simple terms, a rise in the VIX would or could bring with it a sharp fall in Stocks and/or Indices.

Such sharp declines in stock prices and sustained sell-offs were witnessed back in early February 2018, but also in the beginning of October 2018, when the VIX rose towards higher grounds, thus implementing a “fear” period and a risk-off sentiment. That feeling of uncertainty was prolonged in December 2018, when the biggest sell-off of the year shocked the markets.

From a technical perspective, it could be quite difficult to select the ideal scenario, in the sense that the VIX is currently located at a point of interest for both bulls and bears.

A continuation of the rising sequence could lead towards the possibility of more weakness ahead for global Indices. If this scenario would come to a reality, then the outlook for emerging markets would not be that bright. Such scenario could only result in a global contraction and a bear market.

For such a crash sequence not to occur and for the bull market to aspire for new all-time-highs, the VIX would need to decrease drastically and ease the uncertainty sentiment.