Liquidity Holding VIX Down 7/22/2020

2020년 7월 23일

VIX at the 4 hour. As suspected, the volatility run wasn't that big. Why? Liquidity is strong internally. There is a lot of available cash that would drown volatility as well as permabears' shorts/egos.

The VVIX says that volatility can still happen. Almost every daily MA is above the VIX and acting as resistance. That said, the VIX is finding support again after the 200 DMA's area and high liquidity smacked it back down.

I was hoping for a bigger volatility run so I can long the low risk bounces. The flag support is now around 22-23. If the VIX breaks and closes below that support, we may not see volatility for a while. The VVIX tells a different story that the implied volatility should be higher.

The VIX tried to correct this divergence, but couldn't get above some strong resistances above like the 200 DMA.

Either the VIX make a double bottom at the second green line or may do one last "Hail Mary" shot to find support at the dashed green line.

TL:DR - A bigger pullback is definitely delayed. I was hoping this week, but looks like I may not even trade this week. Prices are too high for a decent bounce. Shorting is way too risky at these liquidity levels. I'm not stupid enough to try to jump in front of a moving train. I'm almost stupid enough, but barely by a couple of IQ points.