UVXY my take on next entry and take profit area

2021년 12월 31일

My first one, so please take it with a grain of salt. Not much hard data included, just more of an artistic idea. Log chart to give us some perspective when zoomed out. I am experimenting with volatility trading. Etoro doesn't offer options trading, so this is what I am stuck with. VXX, UVXY, and SVXY.
There are some regular spikes of volatility every 40- 50 trading days or so when the market is releasing the extra steam. I want to slide into UVXY position carefully, waiting for UVXY being low enough, fear and greed index being ideally high. After opening first small position, I just go Martingale from there.

Timing volatility is a gamble. Anything makes the news that spooks the market, VXX and UVXY shoot up any day. In that case, it's better to let it go and wait for another opportunity. The point is to wait when everything seems just right and then give it a shot. You don't want hold UVXY positions to long, as they decay in time and loose value constantly in long term.

Once UVXY goes up, I like to evaluate the situation, check all the news, trying to figure out if it has potential to escalate, or it's just a regular occasional spike. It usually goes down as fast, as it goes up. So if you get to greedy, you might end up stuck in a loosing trade.

Not a financial advice, just my fantasy.