롱

This could be a nice little trade - USTC/USDT

Spocks-Beard의

업데이트됨

Expecting a move up on crypto here, and this looks like a micro 1-2

노트

id stay away from leverage on this one - it likes to wick hard in both directions

노트

any lower than there and the call is kaput !!

노트

노트

my mistake - it needs to hold above there to be a 1-2/1-2

노트

we're looking for something like that i think

노트

looking good, that's 1-2-3 of 3 in, 4probably comes back close to the top of 1 now and then the 5 should be parabolic shooting straight for the 2.618 area

노트

i think the rest of it plays out like that, the minor 2 was a long drawn out affair so-rule of alteration -we should get a short sharp wxy to the 3.618 and back down below the top of 3 somewhere , then 12345 up to the take profit at the 5.618, and hang in for the x wave if you're feeling lucky today.

노트

on a longer time frame you can see its shooting for those highs on the left, so expect any X/b wave to go up there somewhere but go easy, x waves are unpredictable have no structure and dont last long normaly , maybe sell the 5.618 keep a small moon bag and stick some limit sells up there somewhere near that highest left wick

노트

stepping back a few more feet we have these obvious points of resistance - with fib confluence - so i think longer term this is where its headed, , the art is knowing when to take profit within that to maximise gains

노트

i think it'll probably tag that1,618 and come back a bit, then up again

노트

looks like a setup for a short third/extended fifth

노트

next 2 targets

노트

thats more like it

노트

it could potentially blast here and may be tricky to call the top, - possceasier to check thisand sell when this is banging on the 5.618

노트

somewhere in there, because there was a small x after the minor 1 and that green line is overhead resistance

노트

i think we are aiming for there here

노트

probably take some profit there - as 3 waves are allowed to come back all the way to the top of 1

노트

4 waves lol, i keep doingthat

노트

and also we dont yet know if this is impulsive all weve got is 5, 3 and 1234 - so it could still at this point be a 535 corrective move up that leads to a lower low , so its a good move to take something there

노트

it could easily still be this - at this point

노트

we need a higher low and something higher than that B wave on the right before we break out the cigars

노트

this still looks good for a 5 wave down - just lost the 1.618, but again that 4 wave can come all the way back to there and not break the count - which is obv gonna smash it back down

노트

and the last possibility my fav - is that the count is actually that in which case we get a parabolic 5th because 3 cant be the shortest wave in time - but then it can go all the way back to there- so what im trying to say is take some profit enough so that it cant be a losing trade no matter what it does

노트

something like that- its the best count because it offers the most opportunity in terms of longs/shorts, but you dont always get what you want

노트

0.038-0.04, should get a big correction there somewhere

노트

i still think its shooting for that wick and will probs be an ever so slightly higher high or ever so slightly lower, but 0.038 to be safe i reckon

노트

cos above that probably wont last very long it'll be all wick

노트

taking some profit there in case it goes deep on the retrace

노트

can probably just ride it up to there now i think , ive got a few reasons to think it might go a bit higher than that, but im out there . made some profit, so i dont care what happens after as its gonna need to cool off wherever it lands

노트

theres an outside chance that the count is actually this- it can be tricky to know exactly where the 1 of the 1 is when you get those capitulation wicks at the lows - even at 1 min it can be tricky , just depends on dxy/usdt.d if we had a big impulsive move down on usd then i think this could run to ath area

노트

its a valid count 3 wasn't the shortest wave in time , 4 didn't go below the 1 top.

노트

it does have parabolic history too, tends to not f**k about just goes straight up so lets see,

노트

ha, stop hunt. can set your watch by it

노트

btw. just so theres no confusion - if i post a chart like the above - its not meant to be a representation of future price action its just pointing to a possible target

노트

its just faster than using the elliot wave tool

노트

playing this short to the line here

노트

i was in a 20 x long on that, and so wanted to reduce that risk down a bit so took some profit where i said i might do so and then stood back watched for va bit and decided on a short to the but with way less leverage

노트

on these type of trades where i think ive got an angle il always enter with a small amount and high leverage - i dont chase the losses if it goes against me ill just take the hit and try to nail the next capitulation, - i find this works not bad, youre only using small amounts so taking that hit is less painful and you can afford to do that a few times before your adams apple starts to bulge, then i catch a good one and at the first opportunity ill sell keep half put hyal;f back in but with less levarge, this way im taking dollar profit but also reducing thevrisk all the way up each time i have a win

노트

and i never ever use stop l;oss on them cos you just get wicked out every time, ill decide that im certain this is the entry, and if im wrong i just call my selfa moron, suck it up and look for the next opportunity, ill stick to just one chart that i think ive got a really good take on and the try to nail the swings - i dont care about what coin it is, couldnt care less all im ever looking for is volatility i dont care if its up or down as long as its volatile

노트

decided on this because i noticed earlier in the year that a few times lunc moved up this moved up but by a factor of 4 or even 5 sometimes lunc would put up 12% this would do 50, im always looking out for stuff like that, if you look at a day chart on this the moves are all big parabolic moves wicks one way wicks the other way, . perfect

노트

the goal is to not be using leverage at all on it, i just like to play the volatility where i can and gradually reduce the risk until its just a spot trade. becuase greed can wipe you out while you're making a coffee. the tortoise wins imo

노트

i find when im starting to feel good about a trade. like when i start to recognize that chuffed feeling, its normally a pretty good marker for a sell for me

노트

could go back to 0.0166 sort of area here so if it looks like thats the case ill stay in the short a bit longer

노트

we need to be careful here because of what happened in the bottom circle- what we dont wanna do is take a long at the x - hold it and then get something similar to down there where it goes to a lower low,

노트

weve already possibly had 5 up so should be expecting some kind of abc or wxy etc

노트

just always be aware that if you think your in an impulsive move - up or down, the the likelihood of structure within that impulsive move repeating in some fashion increases, so you always have to be on the look out for any retardo price action

노트

if youve got a keen eye you can see thats exactly what it did

노트

its just a process of constantly looking and re evaluating , changing your opinion where needed, no emotion does it look similar to anything above, does it look similar to anything below, is there anything in there that has the potential to catch me out should it re occur, and then eliminating the least likely outcomes until youre left with just a couple of strong possibilities

노트

careful on this - more than likely an x wave

노트

might not go as high as it did below

노트

if youre on it take some profit around there to cover your ass

노트

if this were impulsive - this would be breaking down 9 times out of 10

노트

its important to chart the other side of the market with just as much care as the coin youre charting, - often if theres a move that youre looking at and thinking hmm that could spank me, youll see the same move inverted in the mix on the opposite side of the market - which gives you a bit of confirmation, for alts ive found usdt.d , usd and silver to be very important charts , theres fierce correlation with alts and silver if you pay close attention

노트

on usdt.d just ignore the short time frame rsi most of the time this bastard can put up 50 divergent highs on the rsi and just keep going higher

노트

when your charting these things and the markets going down like here - you always wanna give that area some extra attention - if its an impulsive move to the downside thats gonna keep going whatever it does next is usually very similar to whatever happened there, so its always worth giving that area a bit of time and taking the strure in to help confirm or invalidate your ideas

노트

all of these capitulations and top in cryto have structure that has a certain flavour if you study these areas in historic stucture in depth you can begin to get a feel for what a bottom or a top looks like , this can help you confirm stuff that your indicators are telling you

노트

in my experience almost everything you need to know about what happens next is already in the structure, you just have to know where to look, which is where practice comes in, its like reading music. at first its just fly shit , a bunch of dots. over time you begin to recognize groups of notes as one thing so you no longer have to read every individual note, and then eventually if you keep doing it it becomes second nature

노트

try this as an exercise- set up a paper account and give yourself a month, youre not allowed any indicators at all. nothing. all you can have is the bars pattern tool. thats it, no rsi no mac d no fib. and you have to be in profit at the end of the month. this is a great exercise because it forces you to be more creative about how you analyze market structure

노트

its not something thats set in stone think of it as a live performance with sporadic improvisation, theres a set piece that the orchestra are playing but every now and then the violist goes off on one and then someone else gets a solo

노트

this when it breaks up oftenlikes to chase those points of overhead resisance on a divergent rsi - this is exactly the sort of move that would set up the x wave we're on the look out for

노트

we think we are in a corrective wave - therefore the likelihood of fractal re occurrences increases, is there some strange looking price action below yes, can we find any evidence on the opposite side of the market that would support this idea this yes- usdt. d's tendancy to chase overhead support , you have a possible outcome, there so pigeon hole it, and then try and prove it wrong, if you cant then thats good as a possible outcome, file it, keep watching evaluating

노트

could push even a bit higher than that, but we cant light cigars until we're well clear of the possibility of it being corrective, dollar/usdtd close eye on those when this move starts topping out

노트

could play out more like that

노트

i just still think it needs a c wave - lower low

노트

could be 535

노트

poss dumps a bit then x wave then lower low

노트

right now im still seeing this as corrective

노트

- twins

노트

thats not bad intel - doesnt mean it will happen just becomes more probable, higher on the list

노트

this iswhat i mean about nothings set in stone you cant just trade a setup and think thats gonna work because your chart says so, constant re evaluation in real time, dont be afraid of changing your mind 50 times a day if it eventually puts you on the right side of a trade

노트

yes shock horror our charts can be wrong our charts are probably wrong more than theyre right, so dont get attached to an outcome the market doesnt give a F**k that youre behind with the rent, leave all that emotional stuff out of it- we aint nostradamus we cant see the future and the market can turn on a dime

노트

this could flip the other way right now- and so i was wrong, so what . doesnt matter just do better next time if you can

노트

if you think you have an angle, dont let anybody tell you no - thats not how you do it. maybe you do have an angle. when i was learning to play bass donkeys years ago thats all i ever heard, but turns out that was how you did it,

노트

looks like its breaking down into that y wave so jobs a good un i think, i wont be updating this any more, i just happened to have a bit of time but got real life stuff to be getting on with, cheers if you stuck around good luck with your trades and dont ignore the structure - structure is your friend. new data coming in all the time if someone does something out of the ordinary- dumps a ton of this or a ton of that the structure changes = new data = re evaluate laters

노트

x wave didnt play out, poss a break up now last update

노트

didnt go deep enough to be what i was looking for so id now start considering it poss impulsive to the upside and start looking up there

노트

poss in a fractal of that

노트

every now and then you see that happen where it a tiny bit of structure like that just blows up into a full wave

노트

how/why no idea i just know that it does cos ive seen it happen a thousand times

노트

i saw the possibility yesterday- but these things are quite rare so its not somethingyou can instantly say yeh its that, cos 99 times in 100 it wont be

노트

in these situations where im thinking, hmm could go either way, there will always be 2 opposing patterns tha im looking at t one that goes up and one that goes down, if youve got 2 patterns that oppose there will be a point where initially the both agree but somewhere there will be a point where only one can be right, there alway 2 possibilities one that goes up and one that goes down

노트

if you see a bit of structure like that that looks like it might be blowing up into awave its always worth taking a closer look

노트

remember i dont use indicators, the only indicator i use is the rsi and i only use that if im trading with leverage on short time frames, these are all calls based entirely on structure and nothing else and this shit is hard, insanely hard at times. unless you have borderline autism its probably not for you im just sharing what i do because i dont see anybody else doing it

노트

ive been through the indicators thing - trading view is just an amazing place if youre into charting probably took me 2 years just going through the free tools and i spent a good fair while checking everything out trying to learn as much as i could, i could see that people were winning using them but it just didnt gel with me, it just felt like playing bass a pick, instead of my fingers, no direct contact with the strings, less expressive, so i went a different way

노트

the true williams alligator, i found useful for some of this stuff at , best swing indicator out there for my money

노트

its just about knowing when the market is impulsive and then acknowledging that if it is then the likelihood of pattern re occurrences is greater and just running with that to find trades,

노트

if a chart has boring structure with no big parabolic moves in its history then thats not the chart, you wanna be looking at the ones with big parabolic moves just because if its done it before then the chances of it it happening again are bigger, the more pure the waves are the easier its gonna be to chart , look at dex micro caps, theyre a dream compared to cex coins nice big clean pure waves, and then you look at xrp and it just looks like an explosion in a mattress factory, just makes the job ten times harder if you trade structure,

노트

yeh i know this isn't how you do it.

노트

if it breaks above the 1 wave top, then i think we can cautiously back to this count- the deep wxy didnt play out - although it still could

노트

needs to get above that sort of area before we can say we are clear of that particular outcome

노트

reason being that fractally speaking it could be there - the x went above the wave top - this being an impulsive move means the pattern produced down there could re occur here

노트

so until its well clear of that area, then its still a danger to the trade

노트

youre just playing probability - nobody knows what happens next - i don tknow, you dont know, nobody here on trading view knows - if they did and there was one correct way to chart then everybody would be using that same strategy and of course it wouldnt work then anyway

노트

if you look at the waves on both the 1 and 3 tops the corrective went above the wave top both times- its a fair bet that it could happen again here

노트

the downside is that when it goes wrong trading this way it doesnt just go a bit wrong it goes liquidated 5 times in a row wrong cos if youre wrong with this shit it almost always puts you on the wrong side of an impulsive move,

노트

right or wrong i approached this with the same attitude as everything else ive ever done in life- step 1 ignore flat out anything anybody has ever told you about trading, step 2. experiment . thats it. books can take you so far but if you want an edge its no good doing what everybody else is doing - plotting the same lines on the same charts using the same indicators, - to me that sounds boring as shit, but that's just me.

노트

maybe you wont come up with a world beating strategy maybe itll be total crap- but you will have learnt a lot on the journey

노트

an old friend is ceo of a sports betting company- his stats are 95% of the day traders that use the service lose - think about that. that means if a hundred people tell you something about day trading - only 5 of them have got any idea what they're talking about. so why listen, theyre mostly all losing money

노트

a break down here could go deep, all the way back to 0.012

노트

0.013 soz

노트

poss because of this which now looks like a finished 5 wave to the upside